This is a strategy that aims to zero in on stocks where brokers are downgrading their earnings estimates. In theory, this is a short-selling strategy! The idea is that brokers have a behavioural bias which anchors their new estimates too closely to their previous estimates thus making a high likelihood that earnings estimates will continue to fall in future. Continuing earnings estimate downgrades can be negative for stock prices. However, research has shown that investing on the basis of broker recommendations does not generally work because of the bias in those recommendations. Research suggests that focusing on positive recent changes in broker recommendations may be more fruitful, particularly in combination with other signals, although this doesn't appear to be true for downgrades. You can read more here. more »
This shows the percentage EPS upgrade of consensus broker forecasts for FY2 over the past month.
FY2 means the next forecast year after this one. If we are in March, it would usually be the year ended the December after next December. It does however depends when the company's year-end is, i.e. they do not always end in December (this is not the case with a rolling ratio which is normalised for different year-ends).
Stockopedia explains % 1m EPS Upgrade FY2...
Research has shown that analysts forecasts have a tendency to trend. Analysts often get 'anchored' to their previous forecasts and only ratchet forecasts up or down cautiously in reaction to new events.