Earnings Forecast Upgrades is a momentum strategy set out by US academics Phillip McKnight and Steven Todd in research that examined how analyst forecasts affect share prices. It focuses on finding momentum stocks by highlighting those that are receiving the highest levels of upgraded earnings forecasts from analysts. It looks at both the number of analysts that have raised their forecasts on a share over the past month, and the overall percentage earnings-per-share increase among the consensus of analysts. McKnight and Todd claimed: "Stocks with the greatest number of upwards revisions in earnings, net of downward revisions, earn significantly higher returns than otherwise similar stocks." The researchers examined a portfolio of European shares and found that the 20% with the highest net upward revisions outperformed the lowest 20% by over 16% a year. Earnings upgrades are one way of finding stocks with 'earnings momentum'; those that have received upward earnings revisions are likely to do so again in the future. more »
This shows the percentage EPS upgrade of consensus broker forecasts for FY2 over the past month.
FY2 means the next forecast year after this one. If we are in March, it would usually be the year ended the December after next December. It does however depends when the company's year-end is, i.e. they do not always end in December (this is not the case with a rolling ratio which is normalised for different year-ends).
Stockopedia explains % 1m EPS Upgrade FY2...
Research has shown that analysts forecasts have a tendency to trend. Analysts often get 'anchored' to their previous forecasts and only ratchet forecasts up or down cautiously in reaction to new events.