12 picks for 2012

Tuesday, Jan 03 2012 by
17

RESULTS

Portfolio value (start £12k) v FTSE SmallCap (start 2,749)

Date 01-Jan 31-Dec % change Dividends Yield
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,309 30.9% 19.74 1.97%
£C21 1,000 1,172 17.2% 241.38 24.14%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,244 24.4% - -
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 2,065 106.5% - -
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,735 73.5% - -
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 1,069 6.9% 16.80 1.68%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 2,005 100.5% - -
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,167 16.7% 9.56 0.96%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,024 2.4% - -
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 827 -17.3% - -
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 903 -9.7% 8.56 0.86%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,160 16.0% 0.27 0.03%
Portfolio value (£) 12,000 15,679 30.7% 296.31 2.47%












FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,897.81 5.8%

FTSE SmallCap 2,749.0 3,419 24.4%

FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 707.21 2.0%

 

PORTFOLIO BACKGROUND

***  PAGE HOLDER UNTIL COMPLETED  ***   (sorry, still not complete...)

Ever since I've had an interest in the stockmarket I find myself spending more time on portfoio allocation matters and performance recording at this time of year than any other.  There's no logic for this time over, say, March or June, or even tax year-end, but the extended break allows for some reflection and setting some targets for the year ahead.

It's also the time of year when fun competitions abound to pick some winners for the year ahead (a ludicrously short time for investing) and newspapers publish share ideas instead of news, but I can't resist a comp so have submitted entries to a fair few that are found online*.

* Stockpicking comps:

UK Stock Challenge - (select 5 stocks) [NB - finished +32.45% - 43rd out of 327 entrants ]

TMF - Pub annual comp - (2 stocks) [ finished +31.2% - 36th of 158 entrants ]

TMF/Stockopedia - annual oil stock challenge - (choose 1 long, 1 short entry)

Stockopedia Fantasy Fund [+31.4% with constituents largely matching my own, though in different weightings]

----------------------------------------   12 for 2012    ----------------------------------------

Anyway, I decided to put together a portfolio that contains some interesting picks, is reasonably diversified, has potential for growth and contains some downside protection.  We'll see if I am right in my assertions as the year pans out - to this end I've noted the year-end FTSE100 and FTSE All-share values as well as the closing offer prices for each stock per Stockopedia (I'm sure the spreads can be beaten, but I've no live prices to use currently).  I own nine of the dozen listed, and am actively researching the remaining three for an initial entry purchase this month.

All comments are welcome!

*** INDIVIDUAL COMPANY COMMENTS TO FOLLOW ***


Brady (LON:BRY) - 76p

Software systems and risk management tools for banks, brokerages, traders, hedge funds, etc... of commodities (energy, metals, softs). Forecast EPS of 4.99p = forward PE of 15.2. Brady is making steady progress with both organic growth and via acquisitions.  Revenues are growing, with recurring revenues hitting 54% at the Interims.   

Amongst 150+ geographically diverse clients are Glencore, Xstrata, Statoil, Mitsubishi, Australian Bullion Exchange, Norsk Hydro, RWE.

 Special Offer: Invest like Buffett, Slater and Greenblatt. Click here for details »

Admittedly not cheap, but becoming further and further embedded into commodity trading companies and increasing sector penetration, with ongoing revenues following the initial installation.  And not forgetting the 2% dividend yield.


21st Century Technology (LON:C21) - 14.5p

Public transport systems - Driver safety & efficiency alert system, CCTV, and passenger counting.  EcoManager is a clever driver warning system that warns a driver when the vehicle is accelerated or breaks too hard, which produces fuel savings of 12% and reduces accidents by 60% - 6,500 sold to date & being installed on the majority of all Arriva buses.  On-board Wi-Fi CCTV systems pioneered which send live pictures to public transport and police control centres - supplier to Arriva, Go-Ahead and First Group in the UK, plus Scandinavian sales, and trials in Mid East.

Company is debt-free, with significant cashflow, and sold its superfluous large HQ for £2.35m at Christmas, and will have ~£5m cash when the £2m balance is paid on 6-Jan (MktCap £13m). Possible special dividend when results announced. 2011 EPS forecast to be 1p, rising to 1.5p in 2012 giving a v. low forecast PEG.


Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) - 965p

Highly successful oil & gas exploration company drilling offshore Thailand (oil) and onshore (gas).  Produced just under 10k bopd production in 2010, and exited 2011 with 18.5 bopd + 2,000 boepd.

Latest company presentation indicates that 2012 offshore production will be IRO 20k bopd and 22 boepd incl. onshore gas.  Two horizontal wells at Bua Ban North A are online producing 4k bopd, with eight more due online by mid-February.  There's plenty of oil at Bua Ban North B too, with the B-12 well encountering 75 ft of net pay - two additional horizontal development wells will be drilled here before the rig is moved to Bua Ban South to begin exploration of ahighly prospective asset.

Various Canadian brokers covering the CDN stock (TSE:CEN) have progressively moved their target prices up over the last year, from C$12 when I started buying mid-2011 to latest notes stating C$24-26, which equates to ~£15.80.  One thing we're guaranteed here is an exciting year ahead!


Cove Energy (LON:COV) - 116p

DotDigital Group (LON:DOTD) - 8.5p

An interesting little company this and the wild card in my dozen.  Listed on AIM in Mar-11, £23m market cap DOTD provides digital marketing software to hundreds of firms to enable them to manage their web offerings, as well as an email marketing platform. Y/e trading statement noted revenues up 30% YoY, and forecast annual earnings of £10.5m to 30-Jun-12 with reduced EPS of 0.59p (0.70p to Jun-11) due to a large increase in headcount (prior year absorbed AIM-listing exceptionals).  House broker has EPS growth pencilled in to Jun-13 with 0.83p.

I like the experience of the board (for example Richard Kellet-Clarke of IDOX), and am expecting continued growth according to house broker estimates, and perhaps some additional acquisitions to increase their offering and customer base. 

 

First Derivatives (LON:FDP) - 485p

LO-Q (LON:LOQ) - 192p

Medusa Mining (LON:MML) - 294.75p

The Real Good Food (LON:RGD) - 41p

Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) - 26p

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) - 1402p

Titan Europe (LON:TSW) - 104p

 

FTSE100 - 5572.3

FTSE All-share - 693.2

Performance >>>> http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=pf_summary&p=1&u=strollingmolby

Data taken from Stockopedia Premium

 


Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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Accesso Technology Group plc, formerly Lo-Q plc, is engaged in the development and application of virtual queuing technologies. The Company develops virtual queuing technologies for a theme park or other attraction. The Company designs, installs and operates systems, which allow members of the public to make ride and show reservations when they visit a theme park or other attraction. Its flagship product, VQ is a virtual queuing system for theme parks. Its hand-held units, called Q-bots, are used in theme parks around the world. The Company has overseas operations in the United States, Canada, Italy, Germany, Spain and Australia. In December 2013, Accesso Technology Group plc acquired Siriusware, a North American provider of ticketing and point-of-sale (POS) software and hardware solutions and professional services to the leisure industry. more »

Share Price (AIM)
530p
Change
7.5  1.4%
P/E (fwd)
22.1
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
109.6

Coastal Energy Company (Coastal) is an international oil and gas exploration and development company with operations in offshore Thailand and Malaysia, and an interest in a joint venture which operates in northeastern Thailand. The Company holds a 100% working interest in Blocks G5/43 and G5/50 in the Gulf of Thailand. The combined area of the blocks is approximately 2,777 square kilometers and average water depths are approximately 70 feet. Block G5/50 is an exploration concession north of the Songkhla basin and contains approximately 283 square kilometers of acreage within the boundaries of Block G5/43. Its Thailand onshore interests are held through its investment in Apico LLC (Apico). In January 2014, Coastal Energy Co completed its merger with Condor Acquisition (Cayman) Limited, a newly-incorporated entity controlled by Compania Espanola de Petroleos, S.A.U. (CEPSA). more »

Share Price (LSE)
n/a
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
n/a



  Is accesso Technology fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


52 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

StrollingMolby 7th Jul '12 33 of 52
8

In reply to Mark Carter, post #29

Can I ask how you go about finding suitable investments, and the typical grounds you use for rejecting a candidate?

Hi Mark – I’d love to say that I screen the entire market and then only invest in a few chosen stocks of the top decile of companies based on criteria such as a strong balance sheet, progressive dividend, strong cash flow, and strong earnings growth year-on-year – but I simply haven’t had the time to spend on investing matters recently.  I tend to find new stocks to research either on bulletin boards or via interesting announcements viewed on Investegate.  Then my research consists of building a spreadsheet of at least the last six half year periods to review the trends and determine whether any signs exist to make me wary - and finally good old gut feel about a company and its products/market.

Of concern to me is a strong track record of management delivering e.g. growth in revenue, EPS, cash, etc… as well as their promises.  A management team that under-promises and over-delivers is important to me, as their stock is less susceptible to shocks from profit warnings.  That’s not to say it can’t happen, but finding stocks that don’t issue wildly fluctuating forecasts and results (as well as being underpinned by strong fundamentals) demonstrates a long-term strategy from a board that tends to deliver shareholder return over time.  Of course, the ‘12 for 2012’ was a mixture of stocks across different industries and geographies, with some wild cards in there too, but mainly with a view to diversify - and not embarrass myself with sh!t or bust stocks !

I also have a leaning towards oil & gas stocks, almost certainly as a consequence of reading posts from supremely knowledgeable individuals on Stockopedia and TMF – I currently hold Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO), Ophir Energy (LON:OPHR), SOCO International (LON:SIA), Serica Energy (LON:SQZ), Tullow Oil (LON:TLW).  I’ve sold out of Cove Energy (LON:COV) and Aminex (LON:AEX) this year.

One of the few ratios I look at is the PEG, and one screen I do run from time to time is Slater’s Zulu Principle - though I don’t religiously apply the screening results to my own portfolio activity.  One of my holdings that now meets the criteria is Idox (LON:IDOX), whilst First Derivatives (LON:FDP) has slipped out of the qualifying list (though now meets a Buffet screen).

How do I reject a candidate? I try and steer clear of the kind of blue sky stocks that I used to be drawn towards like a moth to light.  I’ve had plenty of past experience in small-cap stocks that had little or no income and were valued on future potential that invariably failed to materialise.  I’d now rather wait for a product to be proven as viable with growing sales before buying in even if that means paying more.  These days, when I look at a stock it must be mature enough to have grown revenues and earnings each year (or nearly every year), with those having commenced the discipline of paying a dividend scoring higher in my mind.  Management should have a stake in the business to demonstrate an alignment with shareholders, and not just options with low hurdles to vesting which are then sold immediately. 

Of the 12 shares I selected in the list around the New Year, I owned nine at the start with the exception of dotDigital (LON:DOTD), First Derivatives (LON:FDP) and Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT).  I’ve subsequently sold Cove Energy (LON:COV) shortly after the second bid offer from PTT (though it is around 30p higher now…) and Medusa Mining (LON:MML) in March after the third piece of bad news in five months hit the stock (unscheduled mill maintenance, following a fatality and a tropical storm).  This year I’ve bought DOTD and FDP, and some more 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) before the return of capital (gratefully received this week).  Outside of the dozen, I’ve bought into Ensor Holdings (LON:ESR) and doubled-up on Judges Scientific (LON:JDG).  You’ll note the only share from the dozen I’ve not personally bought is SRT – I was certainly tempted before the results but fortunately waited and it was a good job I did as previous noises of winning orders in territories implementing regulation which would create the market for their vessel identification transmitters have not transpired as speedily as communicated by management in RNS’ or investor presentations (of which there have been several – kudos to CEO Simon Tucker for his openness).  It’s the worst performing of the 12, but at 18% down currently it certainly isn’t the end of the world, and the company’s fortunes may change if a number of countries with a large potential market for SRT legislate for vessels to have the AIS product. 

These days with little time to spend on analysis I try not to overcomplicate matters, or move in and out of the market depending on whether the market appears to be in risk-on or risk-off mode.  In his article in today’s FT, Lord Lee conveys a similar approach when reflecting on 50 years of investing:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/296043da-c505-11e1-b6fd-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1zvaiUG1T

As readers will know, my investment approach has changed little over the years: I focus on “proper”, profitable, conservative, dividend-paying small caps. Sadly, I think most private investors overcomplicate matters: agonising over the problems of the eurozone, tying themselves in knots over respective portfolio allocations, fixed interest versus equities, debating how much they should invest in the East rather than the West, and – above all – trading far too frequently.

I believe in simply keeping a large enough cash reserve for family emergencies and then being fully invested in UK equities – and I am certainly not going to change now!

Sounds like a sensible plan!

You’ll probably be able to find discrepancies between my public portfolios and the above, but you probably sense that it’s not a strict discipline, just a rough and ready approach that I find increasingly works for me.

SM

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StrollingMolby 7th Jul '12 34 of 52
1

Now I've six months results to show, the final column for Total return in the header has been truncated - the only difference being that when including the £241 'return of capital' from C21, the overall value is £14,635, and the return is 21.96%. This gives return contributions as follows:

  29-Jun Capital return Total % change Profit/(loss)   
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 2,300   2,300 130.00% 1300 49.3%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,563   1,563 56.30% 563 21.4%
£C21 1,138 241 1,379 13.80% 379 14.4%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,294   1,294 29.40% 294 11.2%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,256   1,256 25.60% 256 9.7%
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,079   1,079 7.90% 79 3.0%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,063   1,063 6.30% 63 2.4%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,046   1,046 5% 46 1.7%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 995   995 -1% -5 -0.2%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 963   963 -3.70% -37 -1.4%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 870   870 -13.00% -130 -4.9%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 827   827 -17% -173 -6.6%
Portfolio value (£) 14,394   14,635 21.96% 2,635  
  20.00%          

 

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Mark Carter 8th Jul '12 35 of 52
1

In reply to StrollingMolby, post #33

Many thanks for your thoughtful reply.

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carmensfella 8th Jul '12 36 of 52
1

An excellent performance and certainly fully endorsed by me as I hold seven of those stocks including three of your top five. I am pleased to say that Real Good Food who have just announced their finals for the 15 month period to the new year end of March are going to do a presentation for shareholders and investors at a hastily arranged Mello Central event this Tuesday at 5pm but will be second to present at about 6.15pm. All are welcome.

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carmensfella 8th Jul '12 37 of 52
2

I am also logging the performance of my ten largest holdings as they are over 60% of my portfolio due to their size. The outperformance of the FTSE was quite staggering and they are all AIM stocks ! Half of them pay significant dividends too and you will see that three are the same as the Strolling Molby picks. There is real value in some of the carefully selected companies on Aim in my view.

http://boards.fool.co.uk/small-caps-with-big-ambition--12572958.aspx

Since that date four weeks ago Nautical received a bid at £4.50 and Judges, Idox and LO-Q are up by 10% or so each so the average of the ten is now over 50% with only Inland as the lagger at pretty much flat over the eight months. I can live with that and look what happened to NPE when it was the only laggard!?

Incidentally I should have mentioned that the event on Tuesday is at the FinnCap HQ in New Broad St London and details of all Mello events and an email link are found on the www.freesharedata.com/mello website.

Happy investing folks...

David

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StrollingMolby 13th Aug '12 38 of 52
2

For the first time this year I missed the month-end prices, and only grabbed a few on 1-Aug whilst prices were static. Therefore I'm working on filling in the gaps once I've found the closing bid prices to maintain accurate records.

From memory on the morning of 1-Aug the portfolio was still running at around +20% for the year, with the FTSE100 +1.1% and the FTSE AIM All-share down 3.6%.

  01-Jan 31-Mar 30-Jun 31-Jul % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,158 1,079 1,184 18.4%
£C21 1,000 1,172 1,138 1,034 3.4%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 979 870   -100.0%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,843 2,300   -100.0%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,118 1,294 1,412 41.2%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 979 963 969 -3.1%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,703 1,563 1,693 69.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,092 1,063   -100.0%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,390 1,256 1,000 0.0%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,077 827 788 -21.2%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 1,089 1,046   -100.0%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,250 995 1,130 13.0%
Portfolio value (£) 12,000 14,850 14,394 9,210 -23.3%
    23.8% 20.0%    
           
FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,768.45 5,571.15 5,635.28 1.13%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 795.06 675.07 668.24 -3.6%
           
  01-Jan 31-Mar 30-Jun 31-Jul % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 88 82 90 18.4%
£C21 14.5 17.0 16.5 15.0 3.4%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 945 840   -100.0%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 213.75 266.75   -100.0%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.50 11.0 12.0 41.2%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 475 467 470 -3.1%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 192 327 300 325 69.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 322 313.25   -100.0%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 41 57.0 51.5 41.0 0.0%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 28 21.5 20.5 -21.2%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,527 1,466   -100.0%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 130 103.5 117.5 13.0%
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StrollingMolby 2nd Sep '12 39 of 52
3

Results for 2012 to 31-Aug:- Portfolio +20.1%, FTSE100 +2.5%, FTSE AIM All-share -1.8%

The portfolio constituent values and indices to 31 August are up in the header, and now including a graph of the portfolio v FTSE100.

Brady (LON:BRY) picked up nicely on Friday with confirmation (within a contract dispute RNS) of year-end cash position and confirmation the business is performing in-line with BoD expectations.  21st Century Technology (LON:C21) dropped significantly last week and approx 25% over the month after releasing its results, and news that significant shareholder Peter Gylenhammer is selling down (he still holds 25.6% so will be a significant drag if he continues to drip-sell them).

Below are the component stock prices at month-end.

  01-Jan 31-Mar 30-Jun 31-Jul 31-Aug % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 88 82 90 95 25.0%
£C21 14.5 17.0 16.5 15.0 11.25 -22.4%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 945 840 915 950 -1.6%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 213.75 266.75 240 240 106.9%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.50 11.0 12.0 11.0 29.4%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 475 467 470 470 -3.1%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 192 327 300 325 327 70.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 322 313.25 314.00 320.75 8.8%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 41 57.0 51.5 41.0 46.5 13.4%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 28 21.5 20.5 21 -19.2%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,527 1,466 1,290 1,362 -2.9%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 130 103.5 117.5 116.5 12.0%

 

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StrollingMolby 30th Sep '12 41 of 52
2

Well here are the numbers for the portfolio and indices for the first 9 months:

Portfolio of 12 shares: +24.2%

FTSE100: +3.1%

FTSE AIM All-share: +1.8%

Certain stocks have really performed over the last month contributing to a rise from being up 20.1% at the end of August - Brady (LON:BRY) announcing solid interims, Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) recovering former ground following continued drilling success offshore Thailand, dotDigital (LON:DOTD) seemingly rising on a Sunday Mail tip but interest continued in part due to a reclassification of its FTSE sector and also contract news and a tie-up with Salesforce, Medusa Mining (LON:MML) on gold price and recovering from past mine problems, and Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) on contract news.

On the downside, 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) continues to slide after the 3.5p special dividend and Peter Gylenhammar selling down his 26% holding, and Titan Europe (LON:TSW) slides following a takeover approach linked to weak paper of the offeror.

  01-Jan 31-Mar 30-Jun 30-Sep % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 88 82 97 27.6%
£C21 14.5 17.0 16.5 13.75 -5.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 945 840 1,115 15.5%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 213.75 266.75 239.50 106.5%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.50 11.0 12.75 50.0%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 475 467 475 -2.1%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 192 327 300 300 56.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 322 313.25 385.00 30.6%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 41 57.0 51.5 45.5 11.0%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 28 21.5 28.25 8.7%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,527 1,466 1,367 -2.5%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 130 103.5 97.25 -6.5%

 

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StrollingMolby 30th Sep '12 42 of 52
1

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StrollingMolby 2nd Dec '12 43 of 52
3

With one month remaining of the 2012 stockpicking experiment remaining the results are showing (in the header):

12 for 2012 portfolio: +26.4%

FTSE100: +5.3%

FTSE Aim All-share: -0.1%

The performance of the portfolio components is shown below.

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StrollingMolby 2nd Dec '12 44 of 52
5
  01-Jan 31-Mar 30-Jun 30-Sep 30-Nov % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 88 82 97 100 31.6%
£C21 **
14.5 17.0 16.5 13.75 12.00 -17.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 945 840 1,115 1,220 26.4%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 213.75 266.75 239.50 239.50 106.5%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.50 11.0 12.75 13.50 58.8%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 475 467 475 510 5.2%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 192 327 300 300 320 66.7%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 322 313.25 385.00 386.00 31.0%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 41 57.0 51.5 45.5 40.0 -2.4%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 28 21.5 28.25 17.75 -31.7%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,527 1,466 1,367 1,377 -1.8%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 130 103.5 97.25 112.38

8.1%

** includes 3.5p special dividend

(all other dividends in 2012 accruing from 1-Jan-12 to be included in y/e numbers)

 

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StrollingMolby 3rd Dec '12 45 of 52
10

In addition to adding in all dividends due on the 12 stocks for the year I'll calculate in the Christmas/New Year break the value of the Titan Europe (LON:TSW) holding that fell to a bid from Titan International (NYSE:TWI) at a ratio of 1 new TWI share for each 11 Titan Europe held. I started a replacement thread for the US line in another place following the takeover http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=28419775&from=1if you are interested in following the story or simply the share price graph.

Also, I apologise for the lack of commentary the last few months which would be beneficial in learning what has gone wrong with certain holdings and which have excelled, and why.  I intend to make up for this at year-end with a full review, and am contemplating doing a similar exercise again next year.

Interestingly, against the performance here of 26.4% YTD, my UK Stock Challenge entry is up a similar 21% for the five stocks chosen, whilst my Stockopedia public portfolio (typically 20-25 holdings) is showing 26.96%, albeit for 12 months. So not vastly different results which maybe isn't too surprising given the five stocks in the UK Stock Challenge (Brady (LON:BRY), Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO), £C21, Lo-Q (LON:LOQ), Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) ) all feature in the '12 for 2012', and have featured for some, if not all, of the year in my S'pedia Folio. One might argue there isn't a huge deal of correlation between the shares in each portfolio, purposefully,

Maybe I can conclude that trading around the edges has provided a little more return for the extra risk run, though I'm concious of the academic studies that show that for each stock held beyond the first five, ten, fifteen, whatever..., the return diminishes and performance gets closer to the index you are seeking to outperform.  So whatever the reason for the outperformance to date, I'll have to start thinking about the reasons for my end of year scorecard.

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StrollingMolby 20th Dec '12 46 of 52
6

Well, the year is drawing to a close and we've a few movers in the last three weeks to make the end of year scorecard interesting.

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) put out an operational update that dissappointed with non reservoir foundations in a new well in Ghana, and relinquishing the Georgetown licence in Guyana. In other news Tullow acquired Spring Energy, a ready-made explo company in Norway with 28 offshore licences across the Norwegian continental shelf, and a 37-strong team of exploration pros that allows it to enter a new region as a fully functioning operating entity, and the price is already rebounding which bodes well for next year.

Brady (LON:BRY) keeps putting out contract wins, but without any idea of size - which turns the RNS into a bit of puff in my book and means the co will then be obligated to RNS all deals rather than just the material ones.

dotDigital (LON:DOTD) just keeps rising, even before the AGM statement yesterday (post-AGM: Grrr!) that stated the strategy for 2013. Now up an incredible 75% YTD and my choice for 2013 over in Paulypilots Pub.

Worst performer Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) was lagging the pack, off 30%+, before announcing the completion of a final batch of an order to Central America and receipt of monies from earlier batches, pushing the price up 5p to 23p.

Heck, even 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) has put in a rally from 8.5p to 11p!

So, with three full trading days and two half-days to go I'm willing the shares to rise up in one final push in an attempt to reach a new high for the portfolio (higher than the Feb peak).  Except those that I might choose for 2013 of course, which is something of a quandary for those I wish to retain for next year...!!

Wishing all Stockopedes a very Merry Christmas !!

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StrollingMolby 1st Jan '13 47 of 52
6

Well, the share prices are in and the dividends have been counted, helping me to arrive at the final results of the '12 for 2012' challenge.

RESULTS

  • '12 for 2012' MolbyFolio - up 30.7%
  • FTSE SmallCap Index - up 24.4%
  • FTSE 100 Index - up 5.8%
  • FTSE AIM Allshare - up 2.0%

 

The year in numbers

  • 10 stocks moved up in value
  • 2 stocks went down
  • 2 companies were subject to takeovers
  • 2.5% dividend yield
  • 30.7% portfolio return incl. dividends

 

(More analysis to follow...)

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StrollingMolby 2nd Jan '13 49 of 52
5

Well it has been an interesting year for sure - and well done if you have followed it this far! Only in the final month of 2012 did the portfolio (excluding dividends) exceed the value it had reached at the end of February, so I'm grateful for the final push to finish the year on a high.

The year started with Cove Energy (LON:COV), the East African O&G explorer, falling to a takeover bid at more than double the start of year price. Clearly I thought I could walk on water at this stage(!) with the portfolio up 28% in two months, but the portfolio was to drift lower over the summer, until picking up from September onwards.

The next largest gainer over the year, Lo-Q (LON:LOQ), the provider of virtual queuing systems for theme parks, water parks and other major attractions, also doubled after a very successful year with contract wins embedding the firm further into existing client theme parks or with new operators entirely, coupled with a US acquisition of accesso LLP, a provider of ticketing solutions to theme parks, water parks, zoos and other attractions. The acquisition cost was a premium-filled £13.7m though is immediately earnings-enhancing, will help to smooth the seasonality of earnings through each half-year, and there is sufficient scope for synergies in regions or sectors that the other has a limited presence in to provide real opportunity to help propel the firm to a market cap of £100m+ (currently £75m). At 390p to buy and with forecast EPS of 13.6p for 2012, placing the co on a PE of 28, the valuation is high but I firmly believe it will continue to grow revenues and EPS, and so have it in my top 5 for 2013.

I’ll be writing the review in stages due to time constraints - I'll likely be back on tonight with the remaining companies and conclusions reached. Happy New Year to all !

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marben100 2nd Jan '13 50 of 52
2

In reply to StrollingMolby, post #49

Hi SM,

Well done for an excellent performance from your 2012 picks and thanks for keeping up your reporting! Hope that 2013 works out just as well for you.

Must admit that I've just trimmed my holding of Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) - yet again! Whilst the company and TB has done well, ISTM that the market is now pricing in "perfect execution". It strikes me that there is considerable risk in the price, hence my decision to trim again. Over the years, LoQ has been one of my most profitable investments: I still have a holding that is more valuable than my original investment in 2008/9 and have had that original investment back more than 3x over!

Cheers,

Mark

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StrollingMolby 2nd Jan '13 51 of 52
3

Carrying on from post #49 above, a real surprise in the portfolio was my wild card micro-cap, dotDigital (LON:DOTD) increasing in value by 75%. The company provides digital marketing software to firms, including web and email marketing solutions and appears to have found a sectoral sweet spot. During the year the company integrated its dotMailer product with Salesforce.com and the eBay X-Commerce fabric, and translation of its userface into eight new languages.  This SaaS offering brings in 80% of revenues (up 38% on 2011) and I'd just highlight this impressive corporate client list from the results which shows who is engaging with DOTD:

New customer signups for dotMailer have continued to be a significant source of revenue growth in the year, with 1,813 new clients being added. Of particular note during 2011/12, is that enhancements to the dotMailer platform and changes to the structure of the sales team have significantly increased client wins in the 'corporate' segment. Our portfolio of blue chip clients now includes names such as DHL, Nationwide, BBC Worldwide, Capita, AstraZeneca, Esso, Ryman, Tarmac, Nicole Farhi, Nicky Clarke, EDF Energy, Virgin Train and Betfair.

Full year results showed revenue up 34% to £12m, PBT up 25% to £2.9m (before exceptionals), EPS of 0.9p and y/e cash of £4m. EPS was hit by the exceptionals figure of £1.2m related to impairment of goodwill. Revenues are forecast to continuing growing by 20%+ in 2013, though the board acknowledge that profits will be lowered by increased sales and marketing spend in the short term to generate top-line growth. Nonetheless I’ve included it in my 2013 picks as I believe it is a company in the right sector providing clever solutions to other firms of all sizes to maximise their own marketing conversion rates – we will see!  There should be a trading update next week.

Next up is Brady (LON:BRY), a company providing software systems and risk management systems to commodities trading firms (including energy, metals & soft commodities). BRY returned 31% on the back of multiple contract wins and three acquisitions to gain access to the energy, emissions, and metals recycling markets, and connectivity with electricity transmission operators.

The interims to June showed revenue up 37% (incl recurring revenue up 40%) and cash of £7.8m (equivalent to 10p p/s - shares are £1 to buy). However, with all the acquisitions, goodwill and other exceptionals have hit the basic EPS hard and it fell 7%, though the firm reported adjusted EPS up 59%. I’d like to see the company consolidate for a period of time and report normalised earnings, so for now it is not in my 2013 picks.

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StrollingMolby 3rd Jan '13 52 of 52
2

In reply to marben100, post #50

Thanks, Mark.  It's been a good year all round with the type of stocks I follow and invest in excelling compared to large caps (FTSE 100) or AIM All Share which includes a few gems amongst a lot of basket cases.

Re Lo-Q (LON:LOQ), I think that's right to trim back when the total value exceeds your own weightings or risk tolerance, or when the story alters, such as continuing to rise in anticipation of future results that have yet to materialise (the 'perfect execution').  That said, I'm happy to wait for now, ahead of further news on contracts and accesso llc integration before acting - there may well be pull backs to take advantage of (as you may on a spike down?) but I have long periods away from the screen so am happy to be invested and react upon 7am news, or intra-day news if I am able.  I'll admit LOQ has been very good to me, having first invested at 42p, but can see your point about Tom Burnet having to deliver unceasingly to keep the share's current rating.

Meanwhile, I hope 2013 is a great year for you personally and another stellar year for your portfolio/s also.

Cheers,

SM

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