12 picks for 2012

Tuesday, Jan 03 2012 by
17

RESULTS

Portfolio value (start £12k) v FTSE SmallCap (start 2,749)

Date 01-Jan 31-Dec % change Dividends Yield
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,309 30.9% 19.74 1.97%
£C21 1,000 1,172 17.2% 241.38 24.14%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,244 24.4% - -
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 2,065 106.5% - -
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,735 73.5% - -
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 1,069 6.9% 16.80 1.68%
Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 2,005 100.5% - -
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,167 16.7% 9.56 0.96%
Real Good Food (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,024 2.4% - -
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 827 -17.3% - -
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 903 -9.7% 8.56 0.86%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,160 16.0% 0.27 0.03%
Portfolio value (£) 12,000 15,679 30.7% 296.31 2.47%












FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,897.81 5.8%

FTSE SmallCap 2,749.0 3,419 24.4%

FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 707.21 2.0%

 

PORTFOLIO BACKGROUND

***  PAGE HOLDER UNTIL COMPLETED  ***   (sorry, still not complete...)

Ever since I've had an interest in the stockmarket I find myself spending more time on portfoio allocation matters and performance recording at this time of year than any other.  There's no logic for this time over, say, March or June, or even tax year-end, but the extended break allows for some reflection and setting some targets for the year ahead.

It's also the time of year when fun competitions abound to pick some winners for the year ahead (a ludicrously short time for investing) and newspapers publish share ideas instead of news, but I can't resist a comp so have submitted entries to a fair few that are found online*.

* Stockpicking comps:

UK Stock Challenge - (select 5 stocks) [NB - finished +32.45% - 43rd out of 327 entrants ]

TMF - Pub annual comp - (2 stocks) [ finished +31.2% - 36th of 158 entrants ]

TMF/Stockopedia - annual oil stock challenge - (choose 1 long, 1 short entry)

Stockopedia Fantasy Fund [+31.4% with constituents largely matching my own, though in different weightings]

----------------------------------------   12 for 2012    ----------------------------------------

Anyway, I decided to put together a portfolio that contains some interesting picks, is reasonably diversified, has potential for growth and contains some downside protection.  We'll see if I am right in my assertions as the year pans out - to this end I've noted the year-end FTSE100 and FTSE All-share values as well as the closing offer prices for each stock per Stockopedia (I'm sure the spreads can be beaten, but I've no live prices to use currently).  I own nine of the dozen listed, and am actively researching the remaining three for an initial entry purchase this month.

All comments are welcome!

*** INDIVIDUAL COMPANY COMMENTS TO FOLLOW ***


Brady (LON:BRY) - 76p

Software systems and risk management tools for banks, brokerages, traders, hedge funds, etc... of commodities (energy, metals, softs). Forecast EPS of 4.99p = forward PE of 15.2. Brady is making steady progress with both organic growth and via acquisitions.  Revenues are growing, with recurring revenues hitting 54% at the Interims.   

Amongst 150+ geographically diverse clients are Glencore, Xstrata, Statoil, Mitsubishi, Australian Bullion Exchange, Norsk Hydro, RWE.

 Special Offer: Invest like Buffett, Slater and Greenblatt. Click here for details »

Admittedly not cheap, but becoming further and further embedded into commodity trading companies and increasing sector penetration, with ongoing revenues following the initial installation.  And not forgetting the 2% dividend yield.


21st Century Technology (LON:C21) - 14.5p

Public transport systems - Driver safety & efficiency alert system, CCTV, and passenger counting.  EcoManager is a clever driver warning system that warns a driver when the vehicle is accelerated or breaks too hard, which produces fuel savings of 12% and reduces accidents by 60% - 6,500 sold to date & being installed on the majority of all Arriva buses.  On-board Wi-Fi CCTV systems pioneered which send live pictures to public transport and police control centres - supplier to Arriva, Go-Ahead and First Group in the UK, plus Scandinavian sales, and trials in Mid East.

Company is debt-free, with significant cashflow, and sold its superfluous large HQ for £2.35m at Christmas, and will have ~£5m cash when the £2m balance is paid on 6-Jan (MktCap £13m). Possible special dividend when results announced. 2011 EPS forecast to be 1p, rising to 1.5p in 2012 giving a v. low forecast PEG.


Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) - 965p

Highly successful oil & gas exploration company drilling offshore Thailand (oil) and onshore (gas).  Produced just under 10k bopd production in 2010, and exited 2011 with 18.5 bopd + 2,000 boepd.

Latest company presentation indicates that 2012 offshore production will be IRO 20k bopd and 22 boepd incl. onshore gas.  Two horizontal wells at Bua Ban North A are online producing 4k bopd, with eight more due online by mid-February.  There's plenty of oil at Bua Ban North B too, with the B-12 well encountering 75 ft of net pay - two additional horizontal development wells will be drilled here before the rig is moved to Bua Ban South to begin exploration of ahighly prospective asset.

Various Canadian brokers covering the CDN stock (TSE:CEN) have progressively moved their target prices up over the last year, from C$12 when I started buying mid-2011 to latest notes stating C$24-26, which equates to ~£15.80.  One thing we're guaranteed here is an exciting year ahead!


Cove Energy (LON:COV) - 116p

DotDigital Group (LON:DOTD) - 8.5p

An interesting little company this and the wild card in my dozen.  Listed on AIM in Mar-11, £23m market cap DOTD provides digital marketing software to hundreds of firms to enable them to manage their web offerings, as well as an email marketing platform. Y/e trading statement noted revenues up 30% YoY, and forecast annual earnings of £10.5m to 30-Jun-12 with reduced EPS of 0.59p (0.70p to Jun-11) due to a large increase in headcount (prior year absorbed AIM-listing exceptionals).  House broker has EPS growth pencilled in to Jun-13 with 0.83p.

I like the experience of the board (for example Richard Kellet-Clarke of IDOX), and am expecting continued growth according to house broker estimates, and perhaps some additional acquisitions to increase their offering and customer base. 

 

First Derivatives (LON:FDP) - 485p

LO-Q (LON:LOQ) - 192p

Medusa Mining (LON:MML) - 294.75p

The Real Good Food (LON:RGD) - 41p

Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) - 26p

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) - 1402p

Titan Europe (LON:TSW) - 104p

 

FTSE100 - 5572.3

FTSE All-share - 693.2

Performance >>>> http://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=pf_summary&p=1&u=strollingmolby

Data taken from Stockopedia Premium

 


Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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Accesso Technology Group plc, formerly Lo-Q plc, is engaged in the development and application of virtual queuing technologies. The Company develops virtual queuing technologies for a theme park or other attraction. The Company designs, installs and operates systems, which allow members of the public to make ride and show reservations when they visit a theme park or other attraction. Its flagship product, VQ is a virtual queuing system for theme parks. Its hand-held units, called Q-bots, are used in theme parks around the world. The Company has overseas operations in the United States, Canada, Italy, Germany, Spain and Australia. In December 2013, Accesso Technology Group plc acquired Siriusware, a North American provider of ticketing and point-of-sale (POS) software and hardware solutions and professional services to the leisure industry. more »

Share Price (AIM)
537.5p
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
22.1
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
109.6

Coastal Energy Company (Coastal) is an international oil and gas exploration and development company with operations in offshore Thailand and Malaysia, and an interest in a joint venture which operates in northeastern Thailand. The Company holds a 100% working interest in Blocks G5/43 and G5/50 in the Gulf of Thailand. The combined area of the blocks is approximately 2,777 square kilometers and average water depths are approximately 70 feet. Block G5/50 is an exploration concession north of the Songkhla basin and contains approximately 283 square kilometers of acreage within the boundaries of Block G5/43. Its Thailand onshore interests are held through its investment in Apico LLC (Apico). In January 2014, Coastal Energy Co completed its merger with Condor Acquisition (Cayman) Limited, a newly-incorporated entity controlled by Compania Espanola de Petroleos, S.A.U. (CEPSA). more »

Share Price (LSE)
n/a
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
n/a



  Is accesso Technology fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


52 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

StrollingMolby 1st Feb '12 13 of 52
5

January has been a great month for the markets, and especially small-caps - which has led to a decent absolute and relative performance over the very short time frame of one month:


01-Jan 31-Jan % change
BRY 1,000 1,039 3.9%
C21 1,000 862 -13.8%
CEO 1,000 1,062 6.2%
COV 1,000 1,168 16.8%
DOTD 1,000 1,147 14.7%
FDP 1,000 990 -1.0%
LOQ 1,000 1,198 19.8%
MML 1,000 1,245 24.5%
RGD 1,000 1,280 28.0%
SRT 1,000 1,317 31.7%
TLW 1,000 990 -1.0%
TSW 1,000 1,106 10.6%

12,000 13,405 11.7%




FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 2.0%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 9.7%





01-Jan 31-Jan % change
BRY 76 79 3.9%
C21 14.5 12.5 -13.8%
CEO 965 1,025 6.2%
COV 116 135.5 16.8%
DOTD 8.5 9.75 14.7%
FDP 485 480 -1.0%
LOQ 192 230 19.8%
MML 294.75 367.00 24.5%
RGD 41 52.5 28.0%
SRT 26 34.25 31.7%
TLW 1,402 1,388 -1.0%
TSW 104 115 10.6%
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fuiseog 21st Feb '12 14 of 52
3

Cove has done very nicely to date and this mornings RNS should add a little fuel to the fire.

A successful appraisal adding more gas pay to the west of the previous discoveries, "adding further confirmation to the 15 to 30-plus TCF recoverable gas resource estimate for the WLBC complex".

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201202210705027...

Adding value to the Company with it's 'for sale' sign up.

fuiseog

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StrollingMolby 22nd Feb '12 15 of 52
2

Even better than yesterday's RNS from Cove Energy (LON:COV) re further success offshore Mozambique, is today's cash offer of 195p p/s from Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB). The sp has risen to 194p as the market seems to think this is the minimum the company may go for - perhaps other bidders will be flushed out by Shell's early bid as they have all had access to the data room since the company was put on the block in early January?

Therefore, Cove leads the way in the 12-share porty, with a 67% rise from the 116p start price.

[the 12 shares are +24% or so to date]

SM

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duncan1957 23rd Feb '12 16 of 52
1

price could rise if another bidder shows interest,but development costs might put some off

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StrollingMolby 29th Feb '12 17 of 52
4

Well, after a great January what did February bring to the markets and in particular my chosen twelve shares? An even better month is what, helped in no small part by the two offers for Cove which means it is a one-bagger after just two months - it may not see out Q1 but the return will be fantastic!

Overall the portfolio is up 27.9% for the calendar year with the FTSE 100 up 5.4% and a more direct comparison, the AIM All-share, up 19.1% reflecting the re-rating that small caps have enjoyed.  Below are the month-end numbers:


01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb YTD % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,039 1,079 7.9%
£C21 1,000 862 1,017 1.7%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,062 1,285 28.5%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,168 2,080 108.0%
DotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,147 1,324 32.4%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 990 979 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,198 1,328 32.8%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,245 1,408 40.8%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,280 1,244 24.4%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,317 1,231 23.1%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 990 1,052 5.2%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,106 1,317 31.7%

12,000 13,405 15,344 27.9%





FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 5,871.51 5.4%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 825.73 19.1%






01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb YTD % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 79 82 7.9%
£C21 14.5 12.5 14.75 1.7%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 1,025 1,240 28.5%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 135.5 241.25 108.0%
DotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.75 11.25 32.4%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 480 475 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 192 230 255 32.8%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 367.00 415.00 40.8%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 41 52.5 51.0 24.4%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 34.25 32 23.1%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,388 1,475 5.2%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 115 137 31.7%
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StrollingMolby 12th Mar '12 18 of 52
2

I've been busy of late and unable to report on the dozen companies in the portfolio, but there's been plenty of newsflow this month already.

Starting with the ugly, Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) reported a profits warning on Friday, stating that anticipated orders were not likely to materialise before month-end, so revenues previously forecast to be in the region of £10-16m will now be £6m (yes, SIX), with profit to come in at around £0.1m. This was a serious letdown, and the price was correspondingly marked down to 21-22p though it has recovered a little. A webcast by CEO Simon Tucker commencing before the market opened revealed that it was a $40m order from South America (Mexico?) that wouldn't make it into this financial year, though he reassured investors that it would be received, and that lumpiness of orders will continue as this is outside of SRT's control. Which begs the question why he was confident/naive enough to guide brokers with the £10-16m revenue figures...

And some bad - the two offers received by Cove Energy (LON:COV) in February saw it trading above the second offer in anticipation of a counteroffer. However, 20% was knocked from the price as the Mozambique Energy Minister stated that the country would tax any sale of Moz assets (even though it's an overseas parent company changing ownership). But we are where we are, and whilst the YTD return has dipped under 100% (!) I'm sure an arrangement will be reached that satisfies all parties.

Fortunately there has been some good too - Brady (LON:BRY) announced its prelims this morning, and great reading they were too:

  • Sales revenue increased 72% to £19.16 million (2010: £11.12 million), including an increase in recurring revenues of 147% to £9.79 million (2010: £3.96 million); 
  • EBITDA before exceptional transaction costs increased 78% to £3.70 million (2010: £2.08 million); and
  • Earnings per share increased 111% to 3.57 pence per share (2010: 1.69 pence per share). Adjusted earnings per share, as calculated by market analysts 2 increased to 5.75 pence per share (2010: 5.68 pence per share).

Still on a high multiple but deserved by the way it is executing acquisitions and producing high growth.  There's also £10.3m cash in the bank with no debt.

And 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) this morning announced a big contract win in Sweden, extending its relationship with Arriva, and adding to the Keolis contract already established in Sweden.

21st Century, the supplier and installation service provider of public transport CCTV and vehicle monitoring systems, today announces that it has been awarded a contract, totalling £3.3m, by Arriva in Sweden to supply on board CCTV, passenger counting systems, depot infrastructure, related maintenance and software hosting for a substantial part of a fleet of public transport vehicles operated by Arriva in Stockholm.

£2.7m of the contract value will be delivered in the current year and thereafter Arriva have contracted for a further one year's maintenance and five years' software hosting. The Company is optimistic that there is further scope for collaboration within this multi-modal (bus, tram and train) transport system.

Commenting on the contract win 21st Century's Chief Executive, Nick Grimond, said:  "We are particularly pleased to have been awarded this business which, on the back of the major contract award by Keolis last year, underpins our expansion into Scandinavia.  In addition to the provision of on board CCTV this contract includes the supply of passenger counting systems within a multi-modal public transport system, which represents a significant new growth opportunity for the Group."

SM

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StrollingMolby 2nd Apr '12 19 of 52
6

The first quarter of 2012 is now over and the results are in.  This first short period for the 'Molby Dozen' shows a continued outperformance of the two indices recorded, though markets and the portfolio did pull back as March drew to a close.

Contributions in the month came from Lo Q (LON:LOQ) with an 11th water park contract and a strong AGM statement, 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) with fantastic results and a special dividend, Brady (LON:BRY) keeps ticking along moving upwards on solid progress, Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) with strong results on the back of impressive divisional performance from Renshaw's bakery products and Napier's sugar as well as a subsequent purchase of a 10% block of shares by Omnicane of Mauritius.

Treading water in the month were First Derivatives (LON:FDP) with no trading update or any news so perhaps a blackout until results in May, Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) despite progress in Africa and being awarded new blocks in Uruguay, and Titan Europe (LON:TSW) which posted great results though seemingly priced in.

Those dragging performance under for the month were Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) on the back of a dissappointing well (though helped by 10% rise today with another good drilling report), Cove Energy (LON:COV) on taxation uncertainty in the Mozambique sales process, dotDigital (LON:DOTD) retracing after racing away in Jan/Feb, Medusa Mining (LON:MML) on the back of more setbacks with unscheduled mill maintenance and reduction in forecast gold production, and Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) with a profits warning.


01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,039 1,079 1,158 15.8%
£C21 1,000 862 1,017 1,172 17.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,062 1,285 979 -2.1%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,168 2,080 1,843 84.3%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,147 1,324 1,118 11.8%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 990 979 979 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,198 1,328 1,703 70.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,245 1,408 1,092 9.2%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,280 1,244 1,390 39.0%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,317 1,231 1,077 7.7%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 990 1,052 1,089 8.9%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,106 1,317 1,250 25.0%

12,000 13,405 15,344 14,850 23.8%


11.7% 27.9% 23.8%






FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 5,871.51 5,768.45 3.5%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 825.73 795.06 14.7%







01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 79 82 88 15.8%
£C21 14.5 12.5 14.75 17.0 17.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 1,025 1,240 945 -2.1%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 135.5 241.25 213.75 84.3%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.75 11.25 9.50 11.8%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 480 475 475 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 192 230 255 327 70.3%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 367 415 322 9.2%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 41 52.5 51.0 57.0 39.0%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 34.25 32 28 7.7%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,388 1,475 1,527 8.9%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 115 137 130 25.0%

 

Happy Easter one and all !

SM

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StrollingMolby 30th Apr '12 20 of 52
6

We're now a third of the way through the year, so time to round-up progress of the dozen shares chosen in the New Year portfolio.  Against a number of headwinds the portfolio has done well to advance by 1% this month, against a fall in the FTSE100 of 0.5% and a fall of 2.3% for the FTSE AIM All-share.

The YTD figures show the portfolio +25%, FTSE 100 +3% and the FTSE AIM All-share +12.1%.


01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,039 1,079 1,158 1,118 11.8%
£C21 1,000 862 1,017 1,172 1,207 20.7%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,062 1,285 979 1,010 1.0%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,168 2,080 1,843 1,950 95.0%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,147 1,324 1,118 1,235 23.5%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 990 979 979 1,010 1.0%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,198 1,328 1,703 1,474 47.4%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,245 1,408 1,092 1,221 22.1%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,280 1,244 1,390 1,305 30.5%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,317 1,231 1,077 1,058 5.8%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 990 1,052 1,089 1,097 9.7%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,106 1,317 1,250 1,317 31.7%

12,000 13,405 15,344 14,850 15,002 25.0%


11.7% 27.9% 23.8% 25.0%







FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 5,871.51 5,768.45 5,737.78 3.0%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 825.73 795.06 776.90 12.1%








01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 79 82 88 85 11.8%
£C21 14.5 12.5 14.75 17.0 17.5 20.7%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 1,025 1,240 945 975 1.0%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 135.5 241.25 213.75 226.25 95.0%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.75 11.25 9.50 10.50 23.5%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 480 475 475 490 1.0%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 192 230 255 327 283 47.4%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 367 415 322 360 22.1%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 41 52.5 51.0 57.0 53.5 30.5%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 34.25 32 28 27.5 5.8%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,388 1,475 1,527 1,538 9.7%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 115 137 130 137 25.0%

 

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StrollingMolby 31st May '12 21 of 52
3

In what has been a poor month the portfolio has stood up well considering and is still +20%, whilst the FTSE 100 and FTSE All-share have slipped into negative territory for the first month this year.


01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,039 1,079 1,158 1,118 1,053 5.3%
21st Century Technology (LON:C21) 1,000 862 1,017 1,172 1,207 1,172 17.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,062 1,285 979 1,010 922 -7.8%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,168 2,080 1,843 1,950 2,224 122.4%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,147 1,324 1,118 1,235 1,235 23.5%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 990 979 979 1,010 979 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,198 1,328 1,703 1,474 1,542 54.2%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,245 1,408 1,092 1,221 1,075 7.5%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,280 1,244 1,390 1,305 1,329 32.9%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,317 1,231 1,077 1,058 808 -19.2%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 990 1,052 1,089 1,097 1,009 0.9%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,106 1,317 1,250 1,317 1,120 12.0%

12,000 13,405 15,344 14,850 15,002 14,468 20.6%


11.7% 27.9% 23.8% 25.0% 20.6%








FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 5,871.51 5,768.45 5,737.78 5,306.95 -4.8%
FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 825.73 795.06 776.90 690.55 -0.4%









01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May % change
Brady (LON:BRY) 76 79 82 88 85 80 5.3%
21st Century Technology (LON:C21) 14.5 12.5 14.75 17.0 17.5 17.0 17.2%
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 965 1,025 1,240 945 975 890 -7.8%
Cove Energy (LON:COV) 116 135.5 241.25 213.75 226.25 258 122.4%
dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 8.5 9.75 11.25 9.50 10.50 10.50 23.5%
First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 485 480 475 475 490 475 -2.1%
Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 192 230 255 327 283 296 54.2%
Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 294.75 367 415 322 360 317.00 7.5%
Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 41 52.5 51.0 57.0 53.5 54.5 32.9%
Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 26 34.25 32 28 27.5 21 -19.2%
Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,402 1,388 1,475 1,527 1,538 1,415 0.9%
Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 104 115 137 130 137 116.5

12.0%

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StrollingMolby 1st Jul '12 22 of 52
1

Well, halfway through the year and the portfolio is holding onto its earlier gains for now, ending the six months up 20%, against a FTSE-100 returning -0.02% and the FTSE AIM All-Share returning -2.6%.

For the first time in 2012 I have included a payment from a stock in the portfolio value - though in the instance of 21st Century Technology (LON:C21) this was a 'capital reduction' rather than a dividend, representing 24.1% of the start price.  Other stocks have also paid out small dividends but I have not included these in the portfolio performance.  I am recording them however, and will include them at year-end and also compare against the indices with dividends reinvested.

  01-Jan 31-Jan 29-Feb 31-Mar 30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun % change   Dividends
Brady (LON:BRY) 1,000 1,039 1,079 1,158 1,118 1,053 1,079 7.9%

21st Century Technology (LON:C21) 1,000 862 1,017 1,172 1,207 1,172 1,138 13.8%
241
Coastal Energy Co (LON:CEO) 1,000 1,062 1,285 979 1,010 922 870 -13.0%

Cove Energy (LON:COV) 1,000 1,168 2,080 1,843 1,950 2,224 2,300 130.0%

dotDigital (LON:DOTD) 1,000 1,147 1,324 1,118 1,235 1,235 1,294 29.4%

First Derivatives (LON:FDP) 1,000 990 979 979 1,010 979 963 -3.7%

Lo Q (LON:LOQ) 1,000 1,198 1,328 1,703 1,474 1,542 1,563 56.3%

Medusa Mining (LON:MML) 1,000 1,245 1,408 1,092 1,221 1,075 1,063 6.3%

Real Good Food Co (LON:RGD) 1,000 1,280 1,244 1,390 1,305 1,329 1,256 25.6%

Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT) 1,000 1,317 1,231 1,077 1,058 808 827 -17.3%

Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) 1,000 990 1,052 1,089 1,097 1,009 1,046 4.6%

Titan Europe (LON:TSW) 1,000 1,106 1,317 1,250 1,317 1,120 995 -0.5%

Portfolio value (£) 12,000 13,405 15,344 14,850 15,002 14,468 14,394 20.0%



11.7% 27.9% 23.8% 25.0% 20.6% 20.0%













FTSE 100 5,572.3 5,681.61 5,871.51 5,768.45 5,737.78 5,306.95 5,571.15 -0.02%

FTSE AIM All-share 693.2 760.47 825.73 795.06 776.90 690.55 675.07 -2.6%

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emptyend 2nd Jul '12 23 of 52
1

In reply to StrollingMolby, post #22

Well done.

Would I be right in thinking that about half of your outperformance is entirely down to one stock - viz Cove Energy (LON:COV) ?

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Fangorn 2nd Jul '12 24 of 52
1

Indeed, great performance strolling. :)

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StrollingMolby 2nd Jul '12 25 of 52
2

In reply to emptyend, post #23

ee,

Would I be right in thinking that about half of your outperformance is entirely down to one stock - viz Cove Energy (LON:COV) ?

indeed it does - which shows the benefit of diversifying across a small portfolio, with the eight winners outweighing the four (relatively small) losers to date. So yes, Cove has carried the portfolio so far, and may yet provide further gains if Shell are encouraged by recent gas discoveries to bid higher than PTT... (of course, could slip back if no bids are flushed out).

SM

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emptyend 2nd Jul '12 26 of 52
2

In reply to StrollingMolby, post #25

indeed it does - which shows the benefit of diversifying across a small portfolio, with the eight winners outweighing the four (relatively small) losers to date.

...though of course if you'd had a higher weighting in Cove Energy (LON:COV)..... ;-)

The diversification argument cuts both ways.

Meanwhile, you may be assured that I am taking a very keen interest in the bidding for Cove Energy (LON:COV), even though I own no shares.  ;-)

I wonder if Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB) will come up with the 300p knock-out that some expect, especially given that the market has already priced half of that in.

ee

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djpreston 4th Jul '12 27 of 52
3

In reply to emptyend, post #26

Alternatively, Shell could just offer £150m for all of AEX and have a much bigger interest ...... ;-)

Fund Management: European Wealth
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Fangorn 5th Jul '12 28 of 52
2

Now that would be a nice out I have to say DJP :)

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Mark Carter 7th Jul '12 29 of 52

Can I ask how you go about finding suitable investments, and the typical grounds you use for rejecting a candidate?

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Isaac 7th Jul '12 30 of 52

I wonder what your numbers would look like without Cove

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Mark Carter 7th Jul '12 31 of 52
1

In reply to Isaac, post #30

He'd be up 9.9%, still above the index. To be fair to him, if I take out the best performer, I should probably take out the worst, too, giving him a mean return of 12.7%. A very respectable return.

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Isaac 7th Jul '12 32 of 52
1

Mark

If the portfolio was more concentrated, i.e. 5 holdings I suspect the performance would be better.

It is interesting how half the gains come from 1 share. So choosing your top 5 picks is portfolio enhancing.

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