Whilst doing some reseach I stumbled across the 2009 edition of the Barcays Capital Equity Gilt Study reviewing the period 1899 to 2008. It costs £100 to purchase, but occasionally, by accident or design, finds it's way on to the internet -
Equity investors have been on a wild and ultimately disappointing ride over the past
decade. Equities have been the worst-performing asset class since 1997, sharply
underperforming all other asset classes. We examine the causes of this relative
weakness, and find that the utility of simple valuation measures has been thoroughly
vindicated by the dreadful recent returns from equities. We show how future long-term
returns from equities – the equity risk premium – can be forecast. We also describe the
factors that cause equity valuations to fluctuate over time. Finally, we compare the
outlook for stock and bond returns over the next 10 years.
