Thanks to Alphaville's reporting of Merrill's research piece today, we now have a date for the publication of the interims - which is 29th August.
Merrill also indicate their expectation that the planned distribution will be announced at the same time - and, frankly (after today's update), I can't see much likelihood of them wanting to publish the details of that any earlier ....and they've already told the AGM they won't leave it any later......
.....so I'm starting this thread for people to post details of matters they expect to be covered in the interims.
We will know by then the test results from TGT-10X and we should know whether Lideka East has anything worth testing. We may also have by then the gas sales agreements for TGT and CNV - and we should have the results of the volume implications of the splitting tests done on the wet gas from CNV. And I would think that we'll have the results of the latest round of FPSO testing, aimed at raising TGT capacity to 70-75k bopd.
What we won't know until Interims day is the extent of the cash position and the plans for the distribution. Alphaville today quote Merrill as saying:
we continue to believe the quantum of the dividend to be announced
with 1H13 Results on 29th Aug-’13 could surprise the market to the upside.
....as do I. .......So the question is "how much?"
My starting point is that they had $350mn cash at the end of May (per the AGM presentation). By the time that the end of August comes around, I'd guess that may have grown to c. $430mn (depending on timings of tax payments, drilling costs etc).....which would be about 85p per share.
I could see them paying out over 50p per share though, if they wanted to indicate they would maintain the payment at the same level in 2014, prudently they may want to pay 10-15% less than that.
Whatever the case, by the time we get to the start of September we could be looking at a much more positive scenario than has recently been the case - and IMO the market will start paying some keen attention ahead of the reserves reassessment which might emerge during Q4, given that they expect to complete the revised reservoir modelling by the end of September.
What would the market pay for a stock that was expected to double its 2P reserves (aka assets) and pay out 50p p.a.? We may yet get to find out as early as September.