LON:BP. | 2030 Energy Outlook - BP View.

20th Jan '11 by ohisay

2 comments 3675 reads

Very interesting BP view of the drivers for Oil Gas Coal Nuclear etc to the Year 2030.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/2030_energy_outlook_booklet.pdf

Our starting point in contributing to this debate has been BP’s work on the Statistical Review of World Energy, which this year celebrates its 60th anniversary. The Statistical Review, which documents trends in the production and use of energy, started out as an internal BP document and was made public for the first time in 1956.
In a similar way, the Energy Outlook, which contains our projections of future energy trends, has been used only internally so far. However, we feel it is part of our responsibility as a company to make important information and analysis available for public debate – all the more so if the issue at hand is as vital to all of us as is energy, its relation to economic development on one side, and to climate change on the other.
In this outlook we seek to identify long term energy trends, and then add our views on the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and technology, to develop a projection for world energy markets to 2030. It is a projection, not a proposition, and this is an important distinction

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Mattybuoy

20th Jan '11

Let me guess ... Everything will be just fine and dandy in 2030.

Global economic output will have tripled, and oil production will have increased to 150m bpd a day or some such fantasy figure. This will mostly be comprised of NGLs (or as it would better be called "lighter gas") which AFAIK you can't actually put into your car.

CO2 emissions will have been reduced by half, while at the same time China and India will be using 4 or 5 times the amount of coal they are today.

Western countries will have rolled out 5,000 new nuclear power stations and 6 million new wind turbines, all at no cost and with no objections from the populace.

Blah blah blah ...

Sorry ... :-)

marben100

Actually mattybuoy, no (well, at least not entirely - though your guess is not too far out on gas ;0)):

You will see, for example, that our outlook expects global CO2 emissions to continue rising, along with import dependence in many key consuming regions. This does not mean BP downplays the importance of climate change or the role of energy security in international relations. Rather, it reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point. To me personally, it is a wake-up call, not something any of us would like to see happening.

It does foresee a significant rise in the contributions of coal, gas and renewables (iincluding biofuels) to energy consumption to meet an almost doubling of demand over that period. Worth a read, though of course, long-term crystal ball gazing is usually fairly futile...

Coal, oil and gas are each foreseen to contribute just under 30% of primary energy needs by 2030, with hydro, nuclear and renewables making up the remainder. Transport is foreseen to be primarily powered by oil and biofuels (probably optimistic on the biofuels front, IMO, unless you live in Brazil ;0)).

I should think populations' objections to cost effective power generation will reduce as the costs of ineffective methods become apparent. ;0)

Cheers,

Mark

2030 Energy Outlook - BP view.

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Ohisay

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