NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
-->
NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE - (edit) and no pointless speculations either!
I've created this thread just to park stuff in that is only tangentially-related to SOCO's interests and doesn't relate to any of the specific assets.
Interesting, thanks ee.
How do you see the current process playing out? Your best guess? Do you think a deal will still be done by Feb?
I just had a look back at the Dana deal & that took almost 3 months to complete as the initial approach came in July.
I think one exciting thing about Soco is a number of suitors are interested which therefore warrants a premium on the price. And what is interesting is how much of a premium is the question to be asking because factors such as market value is simply not enough as one needs to consider the location of the reserves as well as the ability to secure a decent flow of production coming on stream needs to be considered.
A company can buy x number of bbls from the market at a certain price but there is a limitation of doing such business which is you can only by a max number of of bbls directly from the open market as one needs to factor in costs of Storage & costs of charting the cargoes from a to b.
Whereas buying an asset like TGT which has about 20+ years of production & being able to store that Oil in the ground for next to nothing & produce it over many years at a price agreed in the current moment in time needs to be paid for at a premium to market price IMO. Basically by NOCs buying assets like TGT it is in effect them securing future reserves.
My money is on the Japanese if these bid rumours are true. The Chinese have been pretty active,as have the Koreans on the M&A front. My Soco stake, albeit small, is up for grabs at 550p.
Whilst many may think that this is not reflective of the true NAV of Soco, one only has to hark back to Knocs takeout of Dana (again, the price was not fully valuing the assets & prospects of the group) but, and an important but, it was at a very decent premium to where the stock had been trading for a while. Whilst the difference here is that management have a far bigger "interest", and are thus able to dictate somewhat whether they get taken out or not, I do feel that 550+ might be enough to entice them. I could be wrong.But it would entice me.
Anyone entice see 550p as enough?
Buffy
I don't think anyone knows when a bid will come. It could happen tommorow. One can never rule these things out.
I am certain of two things though.
a) Soco will be bid for at somepoint
b)Management will do their best, to get the highest price possible
This is one where you just need to sit patiently and wait - Just like one had to wait with Dana IMO.
Isaac,
I can accept that even if they get the extension for TGD they might be prepared to do a deal with someone fairly quickly; but have a think about how Soco will get a decent value for TGT.
My point is that you WILL 'just need to sit patiently and wait' !
Anyway I got out on the TGD news, so I'll keep an eye out for an attractive re-entry price. If it doesn't come, hey ho...
Buffy
Buffy
I am going to stay put. There is undoubtedly quite a lot more going on in other stocks and it is the reason why Was got out today. The grass is not always greener on the other side tthough.
I am going to see how this pans out. If I get it wrong, well that's life.
You pays your money and you takes your chances....
well I was disappointed with the price action today, but thinking back to the dana deal , I recall that initial reaction was muted, even though a approach was announced with a price. this created an opportunity to buy quiet a lot of stock at around 13 / 1400 the take out price was considerably higher.
I worries me that some reports are saying management will consider offers over 400, I would have hoped quiet a lot over 400 !
K
think about how Soco will get a decent value for TGT.
Logically speaking, by having a production profile. But I think the test results from each of these wells will go a long way to explain potential production....which means we may not have to wait till the summer.
Anyway I got out on the TGD news, so I'll keep an eye out for an attractive re-entry price. If it doesn't come, hey ho...
I think the attractive price was around £3. When Davjo is buying it is usually a sign that the stock is very cheap and offers good value.
I worries me that some reports are saying management will consider offers over 400, I would have hoped quiet a lot over 400 !
Don't confuse a note from the least well-informed analyst on the street with management opinions. This is the same analyst who had a sell recommendation all the way up from 29p, when I bought in 12 years ago. He really doesn't have the first idea.
All will become clear in due course, but there are a number of significant differences with the situation at Dana:
People have long since lost sight of the wood for the trees with SOCO. But thats OK - because it won't make any difference to the outcome.
ee
I dont want to be picky but should the "sale/bid " threads not be on the "sale of Soco Vietnam " thread.
FH
Mistaken identity*….Ed receiving an award from the President at PV’s annual bash in Hanoi last week?
http://www.saigon-gpdaily.com.vn/National/2011/1/89284/
*but for his haircut ;-)
Well if the FTSE drops 5-10% over the next three months on worries about post GBroon UK what do you think might happen to SIA without any newsflow?
Answers on a postcard to repobear lanaken belgium;-)
repo
Thank you for that insightful chart Isaac.
I think it has confirmed to me that:
a) SOCO would have outperformed the FTSE250 if TGD had come in
b) TGD did not come in and SOCO did not outperform the FTSE250
I am not really sure what it is that you are trying to prove - what is the benefit of comparing a single oil E+P share vs the FTSE250?
JS123
....and c) topping at at 290p post-TGD WAS the perfect time ;-)
...and over 5 years (where you need to make your own adjustment for the split)
.....though there is no denying that the biggest impact was the first TGD disappointment (coinciding with the start of the financial crisis) and the second biggest was the Oct 2010 failure to flow the second well at TGD. Despite those serious disappointments though, it is still 30% up on the FTSE250 over 5 years.
No doubt we would all have wished for better since mid 2008 but essentially what has happened is that the upside we hoped for hasn't materialised....whereas what the share price relatives imply is that value has actually been lost - which IMO will soon be shown not to be the case.

Isaac, you're pathetic really. I mean, how old are you?
And you wonder why TMF banned you?
The vendetta you have against ee and me, despite all your protestations to the contrary - actions speak larger than words - is, well, pathetic.
So soco underperformed as a result of a run of poor results with the drillbit - as a great man once said "Well Duh!" What's the next bit of inciteful genius from the guru, that the sun rises in the East? Its all about risk and reward.
I'm still way ahead of the market with Soco, as I suspect those who've held EO from sub 20p will be even, if every well they drill from now one is dry. The difference is I, and ee I would imagine, won't resort to the level of childishness/spite displayed by you.
Personally, I couldn't give a stuff but it just spoils the boards and frankly makes you look like a bit of a........
You really don't have a clue do you?
What might be useful would be if Isaac posted a similar chart based analysis on every one of the stocks he has recommended himself, showing his entry and exit points.
Hi darron,
I think your description of Isaac as " an inciteful genius " says it all, really.....brilliant !
Have a great day , guys - I know I will !
ATB