Falkland Oil and Gas - 2012 - its over for now

Sunday, Jan 01 2012 by
11

 

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited

EPIC : FOGL

 Shares in Issue : 320 million

Web Site : http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/home

 


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Falkland oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) is an oil and gas exploration company operating in the South and East Falkland Basins. The Company’s operations are focused on oil and gas exploration activities in the Falkland Islands. The principal subsidiary of the Company is FOGL Finance Limited, which is 100% owned by the Company. FOGL owns and is the operator of 100% of its license areas. The Falkland Islands comprise some 340 islands, located approximately 480 kilometer from the nearest point in South America. On March 20, 2012, FOGL announced that it had granted an option to enter into a Farm-Out Agreement to an oil industry counterparty. more »

Share Price (AIM)
28.75p
Change
0.3  0.9%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
152.1

Borders & Southern Petroleum plc is an oil and gas exploration company. The Company’s area of activity is in the Falkland Islands. The Company has a 100% interest and operatorship in three production licenses covering an area of nearly 10,000 square kilometers. The acreage is located approximately 150 kilometers south-east of the Islands. The Falkland Islands are located in the South Atlantic, approximately 500 kilometers from the mainland of South America. The Company holds a prospect inventory, which includes reservoir targets in the Tertiary, Late Cretaceous and Early Cretaceous. more »

Share Price (AIM)
9.95p
Change
0.1  1.5%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
14.8
Mkt Cap (£m)
47.7

Rockhopper Exploration plc (RKH) is engaged in exploration and exploitation of its oil and gas acreage. RKH has discovered oil in the Falkland Islands. Its Licences include Licences PL023 & PL024, which represents the southern acreage that it holds within the North Falkland Basin and RKH holds these licences 100% and is the operator; Licences PL032 & PL033, which represents the northern acreage that the group holds within the North Falkland Basin and holds these licences 100% and is the operator, and Licences PL003 & PL004. The Company has a 7.5% working interest in licences PL004a and PL003 and is not the operator. The Company also holds a 25% working interest in licence PL004c. In August 2014, acquisition of Mediterranean Oil & Gas Plc by RKH has completed. more »

Share Price (AIM)
83p
Change
-3.8  -4.3%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
253.5



  Is Falkland Oil and Gas fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


212 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

Proselenes 28th Apr '12 94 of 212

Loligo is planned drill 1 and Scotia likely drill 2.

The follow ons are as below :

 

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wessexmario 4th May '12 96 of 212
4

There is a delegation of 25-30 from the Falkland Islands Chamber of Commerce heading to Aberdeen for a meeting with their Scottish peers for a 5 day meeting from 8 May.
Southern link:   Merco Press

Northern link: Glasgow Chambers of Commerce

Interesting agenda... the chamber of commerce seem to be digressing from sheep farming and fishing :-))

I hope they update their website when they get back: Falklands Chamber of Commerce News

 

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Proselenes 6th May '12 97 of 212
2

The requirement to spud a well (Loligo it will be) before 15th of June to comply with the license requirements, has now been extended to 30th September.

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/uploads/companypresentations/AnnualReportFINAL23.04.12.pdf

Page 4


..............LICENCES In September 2011, FIG granted an extension to the Northern Area Licences of six months until 15 June 2012. Due to delays to the B&S drilling programme a further extension of the Northern Area licences until 30 September 2012 was granted by FIG on 11 April 2012................



.

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Proselenes 6th May '12 98 of 212
1

Big interest in FOGL from India, but the Ministry of External Affairs has stopped ONGC taking a 35% stake in FOGL's licenses - for now - just stalled for the moment.



http://www.sunday-guardian.com/business/mea-stalls-ongc-plan-to-invest-in-falkland


MEA stalls ONGC plan to invest in Falkland

According to ONGC sources, the ministry is concerned about the potential negative fallout on diplomatic relations with the Latin American region.


OUR CORRESPONDENT NEW DELHI | 6th May

India's external affairs minister S.M. Krishna. The external affairs ministry has stalled ONGC’s proposal to buy a stake in oil assets in Falkland Islands.

.M. Krishna's external affairs ministry has stalled ONGC's proposal to buy a stake in oil assets in far away Falkland Islands. According to ONGC sources, the ministry is concerned about the potential negative fallout on diplomatic relations with the Latin..........................................

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extrader 6th May '12 99 of 212
2

Hi Pro

ONGC has a pretty poor record at closing deals (too much politics and bureaucracy) , so I wouldn't count on this as being 'just stalled'....

OTOH, the mere fact that Falklands as got onto the radar screen may prompt some other NOC to step up to the plate in due course.

ATB

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Proselenes 9th May '12 101 of 212
2

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47349888


Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas to buy

Published: Wednesday, 9 May 2012 | 3:30 AM ET


May 9 (Reuters) - Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd :

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd to buy from neutral

* Goldman Sachs raises Falkland Oil And Gas Ltd price target to 212P
from 93.60P


.

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Proselenes 9th May '12 102 of 212
2

Here is the Goldman comment. They are being "uber" conservative with their target prices and risk ratings, but this is high risk stuff.

They say pre-drill target price is 212p and should Loligo and Scotia strike oil they would apply a 1740% rise on that - to give post discovery (before any appraisal) target price of 3688pence a share (ignoring all the other leads that would be derisked by success).

I did put the upside for FOGL at 30 pounds a share for year end - seems like Goldmans agree on the upside for this 2 well campaign, even with their very conservative thinking of FOGL.

I also think FOGL might touch 200p before Loligo results and so, agree with them on that figure too.

Their comment :

........We upgrade Falkland Oil and Gas from Neutral to Buy with a 12-month target price of 212p (from 94p) implying 126% potential upside. On updating for FOGL’s recent equity placing on January 13, 2012 and updating the drilling programme to include more optimal well selection allowed by the additional funds, we believe the stock now offers an attractive risk/reward balance and add the stock to the Buy List.

We also believe the recent announcement regarding FOGL’s acreage farm-out to another industry player also provides some assurance as to the viability of the company’s acreage, while the gas condensate discovery at the Borders and Southern Darwin East well has also served to highlight the prospectivity of the southern part of the basin (in which FOGL has acreage – albeit with no plans to drill in the current campaign). We assume that the company drills the Loligo and Scotia prospects as part of this drilling campaign. Despite the success of the Darwin East prospect we would still regard these prospects as relatively high risk and as such apply conservative chances of success (8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia with a c.50% chance of encountering liquids – a higher risking than for Borders & Southern’s remaining Stebbing prospect to reflect the 3D seismic that Borders possesses and the de-risking impact of Darwin).

Success at these prospects would be transformational for the company, with the potential to
increase our valuation by c.1740% in the oil case, even without including the derisking impact success would have on the rest of the basin. The company has worked up a large number of prospects and leads across multiple play types in its sizable acreage position, giving substantial running room in the event of success. Despite our conservative risking, there is still 126% potential upside to our target price......

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Proselenes 18th May '12 103 of 212
2

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20107756

Broker snap: Merchant Secs initiates Falkland Oil at buy
Fri 18 May 2012

FOGL - Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd.


................ LONDON (SHARECAST) - In a research note issued this morning analysts at Merchant Securities initiate coverage of Falklands Oil and Gas with a buy recommendation and a 400p price target.

For them this company, “holds the best exploration acreage in the Falkland Islands because its prospects are larger than elsewhere, yet we believe the exploration risks are not greater than elsewhere in the region.”

More specifically, they believe that the Loligo prospect is likely to be a condensate prospect, just as the Borders & Southern discovery at Darwin was a condensate discovery. They have modelled the prospect based on their estimate that, if successful, it could produce 2.0bn barrels of condensate, which compares to FOGL’s estimate of 4.7bn barrels of oil equivalent. Loligo is likely to commence drilling around the end of June or early July 2012 with results announced about 8 weeks later.

As well, they anticipate a ‘pre-drill catalyst’ in that they expect that prior to drilling Loligo the company will farm out 25% of its licence areas to a currently undisclosed party pursuant to a farm-in option agreement. FOGL would receive $60m in cash if the option is exercised in accordance with the base case of the agreement...........

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Proselenes 22nd May '12 104 of 212
3

Todays AGM notes thanks to faldiz on III


........There were 4 or so people I recognised at the AGM, and then may add their own notes. Here are the bits that interested me.

DARWIN
Good result. Proves Aptian working HC system. Game on for exploration. Possibly also a Jurassic source.

Likely to be 2-3 TCF of gas, 2 - 300m barrels of condensate. Sample could go on a chartered cargo flight, at cost – or by sea in about 6 weeks. Delay is likely because BOR taking their time to think through implications for rest of their acreage. May or may not be stand alone commercial, depending on liquid content.

Darwin drilled the mid-cretaceous, but not the Springhill reservoirs.

5 or 6 Darwin look-alikes in FOGL licences, but structurally complex, and FOGL need 3D to define them. Some of these not as deeply buried, and may have oil.

Gas re-injection could be done at this depth, at a cost.


LOLIGO
Some form of HC now likely, question is what. Worst case would be fizz-gas (experts explain), which would be bad news, but unlikely, and would in any case gather at higher end of the reservoir, leaving room for better stuff below.

Likely, FOGL would test each reservoir as they drilled through it, and may well issue RNSs after each – because whether good or bad, it is price sensitive. No guarantees, though.


GAS
FLNG ships are now being built that could deal with SFB waters, but development using these are 15 years off. However, on-shore, or FLNG in a sheltered bay may be realistic sooner, but would need of order 6TCF.

Geothermal model confirmed by Darwin result – as hot as thought. Oil window at 3-4km burial. Toroa was an anomaly which made temperatures appear lower than model. Gas was predicted at Darwin (by FOGL), condensate a nice surprise.

FARM-IN
Hopefully resolved, if so news in coming month. Did not talk to majors – they take too long for current need, and would want control. Later, in success case. Farm-in partner not the Indian company. FOGL have had 8 or 9 medium sized European and US companies through their data room. 3 or 4 still showing interest.

RIG
FOGL being kept aware of teething problems. These are being sorted out.

Possibility of FOGL taking 3rd slot (5th over all), in the success case. 5th option lapsed formally in May of last year, but Ocean did offer it again earlier this year, at a cost that neither BOR of FOGL were willing to pay, ahead of Darwin results. May not be possible in time, as rig is contracted to Total from early 2013.

3D
Likely BOR and FOGL will share a survey ship for southern licences. FOGL may in addition survey northern licences. 4th quarter 2012, if so.

Follow-on drilling campaign would not be until end of 2013.

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Proselenes 22nd May '12 105 of 212
2

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E8GMDRA20120522?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0


INTERVIEW-Falklands Oil sees huge potential despite Argentina noise
Tue May 22, 2012 4:25pm GMT

By Sarah Young

LONDON May 22 (Reuters) - The political noise stirred up by Argentina over the Falkland Islands will not deter big energy firms from investing in the region if there is enough oil found to make it worthwhile, said the chief executive of explorer Falkland Oil & Gas.

"It's not the politics that are stopping the companies coming in, it's the fact that no-one has yet made big, world-class discoveries," the company's chief executive Tim Bushell said in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday.

Verbal sparring .............


Click the link above for the 2 page interview.

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Proselenes 28th May '12 107 of 212
1

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/The_oil_explorers_dream_list_A_portfolio_to_put_away_for_12_months/429845273360.aspx


The oil explorers dream list... A portfolio to put away for 12 months.

Monday, May 28, 2012



........Falklands Oil & Gas - 90p current price

Falkland Oil and Gas, is a South Falklands basin focused oil and gas explorer. The Leiv Eiriksson drilling rig was secured in May 2011 through a deal with Borders & Southern and Ocean Rig 1 and is due to start drilling on FOGL acreage following the completion of Border's stebbing prospect in June/July 2012 at a cost of around $180 million. Two exploration wells will be drilled, Loligo and Scotia or Nimrod. The prospective resources of Loligo are 4.7 billion barrels and Scotia/Nimrod are around 1 billion barrels.

In March 2012 the company announced that it had granted an option to an as yet anonymous company to farm-out a maximum of 25% of the FOGL licences which gives FOGL significant financial leverage to maximise its drilling activities during the remainder of 2012.

Following Borders & Southerns gas find last month in the South Falklands Island basin and the subsequent placing and retracement of BOR's shares, it is intriguing to note that FOGL have largely held onto the gains running into this announcement. It seems the overhang of stock from the rundown of the old RAB Capital portfolio is no longer an issue too.

Regular readers of our magazine will recall our article in the special Feb/Mar Oil Explorers edition on Pages 76 & 77 (Link here - http://www.issuu.com/spreadbetmagazine/docs/advfn) and where we set out the potential upside for this stock. The discovery of hydrocarbons (gas condensate) in the South Island basin by BOR actually de-risks the exploration program of FOGL and make no mistake if they do strike oil in the potential monster prospect that is Loligo the share price will be many multiples higher.

This is a higher risk prospect with substantial upside on a positive drilling outcome but investors should remember that a chance of success (COS) is around 25% for each well. Don't bet the house on this one!

............

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Proselenes 29th May '12 108 of 212
1

If RKH is a farm in it might mean joint news, RKH and FOGL farm in at the same time as it might be the same company.


http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/guardian-cfd-s-newspaper-briefing/9490/newspaper-briefing-including-jpmorgan-offers-warning-for-ringfencing-financial-times-9490.html


.............Rockhopper Exploration: Chased 7p higher to 288½p, after speculation re-surfaced that it may be close to securing the $2 billion (£1.3 billion) it needs to develop its Sea Lion discovery, an estimated 500 million barrels lying about 200 kilometres off the Falklands...........


.

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Proselenes 29th May '12 109 of 212
5

So BOR sample could in the lab now this week.

BOR could be into the first target zone at Stebbing (the ongoing drill has a shallow and deeper target)

FOGL could have farm in news this week or next along with RKH.

Exciting times.So BOR sample could in the lab now this week.

BOR could be into the first target zone at Stebbing (the ongoing drill has a shallow and deeper target)

FOGL could have farm in news this week or next along with RKH.

Exciting times.So BOR sample could in the lab now this week.

BOR could be into the first target zone at Stebbing (the ongoing drill has a shallow and deeper target)

FOGL could have farm in news this week or next along with RKH.

Exciting times.

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Proselenes 31st May '12 110 of 212
2

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120531/keep-your-eye-on-oil-exploration-companies.html

Keep Your Eye On Oil Exploration Companies

by MONEYMORNING on 31 MAY 2012


.................The oil majors today are making good money and need to get involved in new frontiers, so the junior oil explorers should be able to drive a hard bargain. Over the next few months we could see industry majors farming in to projects off the coast of Namibia and the Bahamas, and in the South Falklands Basin especially................

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Proselenes 2nd Jun '12 111 of 212
1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/631951-falklands-oil-gas-limited-high-risk-reward-play-for-5-billion-barrels-of-oil

Falklands Oil & Gas Limited: High Risk/Reward Play For 5 Billion Barrels Of Oil
June 1, 2012 by: Black Gold | about: FLKOF.PK


Falklands Oil & Gas Limited (FLKOF.PK) is a UK company exploring for oil and gas offshore of the Falkland Islands. The company is listed in the UK under the symbol FOGL, however US investors can participate on the pink sheets under the symbol FLKOF.

FOGL was started ten years ago by a group of investors who were awarded offshore licenses by the.....................

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Proselenes 8th Jun '12 112 of 212

Rumours abound that DANA is now moving up the priority table in terms of FOGL/RKH farm in partner.

Not far away from news methinks.



DANA's website says under its strategies :

Secure access to new provinces

......looking beyond our existing operations for growth from frontier exploration and new business development

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