It’s eyes down for the end of the 2-day FOMC meeting today and Chairwoman Yellen’s subsequent press conference.

The last time I looked at the FOMC minutes, the order of the day was “Longer” [before we start raising short-term rates], “Slower” [pace of tightening once we do start tightening], and “Lower” [we won’t raise rates as high as we have done historically]. With the economy growing and unemployment falling, it’s obvious that the long period of virtually zero short-term interest rates has to come to an end at some point. However, it’s also worth remembering that central bankers – whether they are independent or not – are always more aggressive with respect to cutting rates than they are to raising them. Specifically, policy easing actions are typically accompanied by “we’re prepared to do more” rhetoric, whereas policy tightening is as often as not a “we think this ought to do it” affair.

The only likely monkey in the wrench to a “very steady as she goes” shift towards an eventual tightening cycle is actual, in-your-face consumer price inflation. I should add “asset price inflation” to that, but I still have my doubts as whether today’s Central Bankers would be so willing to take the punchbowl away from an asset-price-inflation-only party. And as far as consumer price inflation is concerned, it still seems to be some ways away.

So even if the Fed withdraws some of its easy policy rhetoric later today, I don’t see that it will do much lasting damage to the major markets. In fact, the actual US economic background remains very supportive for stocks, in my view. There’s an old adage “Don’t Fight the Fed”, but it applied – as I remember it – to actual interest rate changes, not just talks about talks about an eventual shift in policy.

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