For all DART share holders

25th Oct '16 by JFK

33 comments 12914 reads

Anyone who uses the various stock ranks as gospel, please look at the values attached to DART and the corresponding performance of late. I originally used this service thinking it would be good to use these ranks as a baseline concept and that may still hold true. However, I would suggest that seeing extremely positive rankings will lead to confirmation bias and others) and am just warning any of the more inexperienced traders/investors to be very mindful/careful of being reliant on using the stock ranks as a complete method for investing.

I have been a Financial Advisor for 16 years and the biases don't go away!!

I have no position in DART shares of any kind.

JK

ps - see below

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Edward Croft

27th Oct '16

PS - calm down chaps... we're all on the same side.

gus 1065

Morning Ed.

If I may, please could I jump in on your question to Damian as he was responding to a comment I made earlier on in the thread?

Personally, I would find it really useful to be able to add a couple of optional fields into one of the sections of a Folio page (perhaps the Quotes page?) for a whole portfolio of stocks. This would allow the user to set a manual stop at the time of a share purchase (maybe on the stock input page) and perhaps an automatically generated trailing stop that moves upwards in parallel with an underlying share price at a fixed percentage set by the user as the share price rises but which subsequently locks in if the share price then falls. (If the share price falls from the time of purchase the trailing stop would default to the same figure as the original stop).

If this could then tie in to generate an email alert in real time when a stop is hit that would be the icing on the cake!

I currently have an excel spreadsheet that does the first part of this using a cut and paste data dump of current prices generated at close of business. It works after a fashion but requires a bit of work to update for the inclusion of new stocks and doesn't work intra day. A Stockopedia based real time feature would be great.

Best,

Gus.

pod

As a subscriber, but also a novice investor who needs all the help they can get, I for one found this post useful.

Damian Cannon

Hi Ed,

Oh that's really good news and thanks for getting back to me on this feature. My thoughts on this are quite similar to those outlined by Gus but this is the functionality which would make a big difference to my portfolio management:

Use Case 1: I want to protect my capital by limiting the downside on a new position within my portfolio. So when I enter trade details I'd like to be able to specify a stop-loss that's either a certain percentage of my purchase price or is a fixed price of my choosing.

Use Case 2: As above except when I add a new purchase on top of an existing position then I'd like my total position to optionally take a blended stop-loss which combines the original position and new trade stop losses but weighted by the number of shares. A partial sale shouldn't change the position stop loss.

Use Case 3: I want to protect my portfolio gains by setting a trailing stop loss on each position. So I'd like to be able to edit the stop loss details for a position and to set a percentage drop from a previous high within a specified time period (or from the first date on which you have a price for the stock).

Use Case 4: I want to be able to set multiple stop losses for a single position with the trailing stop loss protecting any gains while the initial stop loss sets a share price floor.

Use Case 5: When a stop-loss is breached intra-day I'd like to receive an email notification for the first time that this happens on a particular day. If a share breaches the stop-loss from one end-of-day to the next then I'd also like to receive an email relating to this closing price.

So my interest very much revolves around specific portfolio positions and, to a lesser extent, specific transactions. I'm not interested in being alerted when my portfolio or portfolio group suffer a stop-loss event as this isn't the trigger that I'm looking for.

Hope that helps Ed!

Damian

LovelyLovelyGorgeous

31st Oct '16

Gus, if you use a Google spreadsheet you can get it to automatically pull in data from Google Finance. I then use formulae to tell me when to update a trailing stop loss / sell

Ed, as a very simple minded person I would love to have a trailing stop loss facility attached to each share which triggers a sale at a given % fall.

dfs12

1st Nov '16

Hi Ed,
My thoughts on this (as a software developer and consumer facing website owner) is that whatever is easiest and quickest to do should be done first. If getting "stock by stock" based stop losses is easiest then that's the one to do first. I've found that there's often little point in doing the really clever stuff as it's often not even used! Once you've got something simple out there you're then in a much better position to see how popular it is and how much more work you should put in to it. One of my favourite books is on dev strategy "Lean Start Up" by Eric Ries (I'm pretty certain you'll know the book all too well - as I see signs of his advocated approach all over the place on Stockopedia). And although I hate products that are launched to the market too early (i.e. before they work), I do think doing the simple stuff first and quickly gets the vast majority of requirements knocked over. I'd like to see an implementation of trailing stop losses if possible.
Keep up the good work!

AnonymousUser40634

I'd second these use cases from Damian above.

Probably not what you want to hear from an implementation POV but I think there are different needs for different situations.

There is another well-known piece of investing software which does quite a good job with alerts in general - I won't promote it on this site, but Ed, if you don't know the one I mean and want further details let me know as it might help when you're researching options for implementing this kind of functionality in the new site.

JFK

2nd Nov '16

Hi Ed

Would the momentum indicators benefit from a directional arrow next to the number?

thanks in advance

JFK

17th Nov '16

Going back to the original topic of the thread ( Dart (LON:DTG) ), interesting to see that they posted a good set of half year results this morning and have given a "slightly ahead of expectations forecast", hence an uptick in the share price of about 5% as I write.

While I agree with the general sentiment that an investment decision needs to be based on more than a cursory glance at the Stockopedia summary traffic light ranking signals, the original posting on Dart made me take another look at the company. Obviously the share price (low M) has struggled in the past few months given the general headwinds of Brexit, lower Sterling, impact of terrorism in some of their travel markets but notwithstanding this it still seems to be a good quality company (high Q) with decent management at an attractive valuation (decent V). This seems to be born out by today's figures and forecast and short term at least vindicated my decision to buy in at the 380p level a couple of weeks ago. A simple look at the price chart rather than the underlying Stockopedia metrics would probably have made me look elsewhere.

Best,

Gus.

Ramridge

Gus - I also looked at the numbers this morning more closely and generally liked them. But one thing puzzles me.
Diluted eps for this HY is 90.2p . Broker forecast for full year according to Stocko and MorningStar is 45p.
Yes I know performance is heavily slanted towards 1H and looking at the split of 1H against 2H in FY2016, there is around 20% drop in eps. On today's results, at face value, the drop looks like around 50%.
So unless I have missed something obvious, the broker forecasts now look too conservative and an eps upgrade should be due?

Hi Ramridge.

I agree the current broker forecasts look a bit on the low side. The company suggests in the RNS that they expect the full year to be slightly better than expectations. Perhaps they are erring on the cautious side to manage expectations? Hopefully Paul will take a look at Dart (LON:DTG) in today's SCVR.

Best,

Gus.

grumpy5

18th Nov '16

I met 2 senior Jet 2 guys a couple of months ago, and a more junior bloke yesterday, all in the course of conferences etc. They are all quite optimistic about the two new hubs - Birmingham and Stansted. Clearly there is some short-term investment here - you can see the posters in the Tube, etc. But I think they should provide another good leg of growth on a 2 year view.

Ken Lowes

21st Nov '16

Hi JFK
I felt for you over this post and the response it created as a result it motivated me. If you haven't read How I made £497000 perhaps you should and discover a kindred spirit.
Ken

30th Nov '16

Hi Ken

Don't worry about me old bean. I bought dart at 3:87 - i had read your post but didn't really get your strategy and wondered what you had invested to obtain the 497k?

thanks

2nd Dec '16

I am a somewhat concerned about the fact that you warn others away from DTG and then buy only a few days off the current bottom?

12th Jul '17

Nice recovery chart - results 13th July 17 - bump

Rusty2

14th Jul '17

Results were not good, hence share price down 20%.

It's quite interesting that this post by JFK was posted right near an interim low in October 2016. The stock rose 83% to peak on the 12th July after that date. Even after this recent slump it's 43% above the 25th October price though recent buyers may be hurting.

Traders like to keep an eye on the 200 day Moving Average. If DTG breaches the red line there could be further downside.

All stocks are speculative. DYOR.

59689c9d067beDART_Share_Chart___Live_Cha

HumourMe

As a recent buyer, as it hit new highs at 651p, I became a quick seller at 585p, as it plunged through its recent support. Such is the nature of shares, the price action proved me wrong. It would still be on my screen except for its new 'RS 3m' now being less than zero. I'm sure that is a leading indicator for "% 3m EPS Upgrade FY1 > 0", in this case, which will further exclude it.

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JFK

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