Globo - massive growth potential from a PE of 10

Saturday, Mar 31 2012 by
11

Globo announced their Dec 2011 results yesterday. They were excellent but the market marked them down a tad; its hard to see why. My initial take on their current position is extremely positive, particularly for those who have some risk appetite where the upside is massive.

This is not completely risk free but the underlying business looks to be of such quality the risk is limited. Having said that the opportunity looks massive, its currently my favourite 'the next ASOS' punt.

I was fortunate to attend a couple of investor presentations a little over a year ago and bought then for potential international growth in their existing business lines and the GO Enterprise Server potential. I had the strong feeling the board saw GO ES as the 'big one' for them. Looking at the state of RIM, the easier deployment of their technologies as well as the benefit of integration onto an existing smart (or feature) phone I could only agree. In fact my company tried to evaluate the GO ES service but the lines were so busy we could not get a response (hopefully this has been dealt with now).

The accounts paint an awesome picture:
1. if the international growth continues through the year at the same rate the Greek business will be almost irrelevant; 246% for goodness sake. It does not rely on rich markets either, so the potential for continued growth remains intact.
2. margin growth when they are launching a new project the size of ES GO is impressive - I would have expected a one year reduction.
3. EPS grew at 14%. On the face of it modest but again think of the time lag from receipt of the new capital to a ramp up in GO ES sales. I expect next year the earnings growth to increase faster.
4. the other financial stats are more impressive and are well flagged in the results.
5. An achilles heel in these companies can be debtors as many customers are large telecoms co's. These have increased just 15% against the turnover increase of 46% presumably back end loaded.

I don't actually know what their brokers have predicted for next year (anyone?) my money says they will beat it!


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Globo plc is engaged in the provision of telecom, mobile software products and related services, as well as developing and operating broadband wired and wireless networks. The Company operates in two segments: Mobile products and services and Telecom services (S.a.a.S). Its Mobile products and services segment in sells its own mobile software products and services to its clients. Its Telecom services (S.a.a.S) segment combines telecom services with its own software products (e-business and WiFi services) that are then sold on software as a service basis. The Company’s WiPLUS consists of a managed service provided to hotels, airports, marinas and similar locations with Globo receiving revenue from venue owners. The Company’s GO!Enterprise is a platform for development, deployment and management of secure mobile apps. In June 2014, Globo PLC acquired services division of Sourcebits Inc. more »

Share Price (AIM)
48.38p
Change
1.0  2.1%
P/E (fwd)
6.2
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
179.4

InternetQ plc, formerly InternetQ Limited, offers mobile marketing solutions and digital entertainment. Through the mobile marketing technology platform, it also provides digital content to mobile subscribers through its Akazoo module, which is an online and mobile entertainment hub. It operates in two segments: The Mobile Marketing operating segment, which is designed for campaigns on mobile telecommunications networks, and The Mobile Entertainment operating segment, which is engaged in offering access to digital content (music, games, subscriptions). Its platform is offered as a managed or software as a service (SaaS) self-service product, supporting technologies for the Worldwide mobile audience. It is focused on mobile messaging, mobile applications, Web and Internet applications, mobile payments and digital content management. In mobile messaging, it focuses on short message service and multimedia messaging service. In July 2013, it acquired Atlas Interactive Deutschland GmbH. more »

Share Price (AIM)
254.88p
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
8.5
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
100.7



  Is Globo fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


36 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

marben100 4th Jan '13 17 of 36

In reply to loglorry, post #16

Can anyone come up with many examples of software companies (product based) that have made it big from Europe with their home grown products?

SAP springs to mind...; Sage haven't done too badly either. ;0) I'm sure other people can come up with further examples. With a market cap. of £70m, Globo doesn't have to make it into the "big league" (a la Skype, Facebook) to produce a handsome return for investors. [not currently holding but am thinking about it].

Mark

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loglorry 4th Jan '13 18 of 36

But is Sage used globally or has it grown out of UK based accountancy practice. I can see why a local company would do wellbwithin its own accountancy duristriction. Dont know much about SAP.

Thinking about it too but would like to know who have competing products Salesforce maybe?

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marben100 4th Jan '13 19 of 36
1

In reply to loglorry, post #18

 Dont know much about SAP.

German global ERP giant (vrtually invented ERP): market cap €73bn; big competitor to Oracle in ERP space. Looks like share price just hit a new record high.

Sage started in the UK, was brilliant at marketing (in its fullest sense) and has grown strongly by acquisition globally - similar strategy to Microsoft's but on a smaller scale, in a more specific niche. Last year's revenues of £1.3bn were segmented 58% Europe (not just UK), 31% Americas, 11% elsewhere.

 

The point is, if you can find a niche and dominate it, you can compete against the "big boys" (or the big boys might decide to buy you ;0)). Of course the odds are stacked against... but there's a lot to shoot for. Globo's challenge is to roll their product out fast enough and establish a strong foothold in facilitating cloud servers for SMEs.

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loglorry 4th Jan '13 20 of 36
1

Globo's challenge is to roll their product out fast enough and establish a strong foothold in facilitating cloud servers for SMEs.

Trouble is as far as I can see from the stuff on their site this isn't what they are selling at all. Seems like a bunch of software components which can be used to make a lot of the services that exist for an SME mobile along with an SDK and some adapters to plug into existing CRM systems etc.

That doesn't sound particularly niche to me and I'm sure there are plenty of other larger vendors doing something similar.

Very hard to know exactly what it is they offer from their marketing material though I'd need to actually use it a bit to understand what it is. Has anyone actually used their stuff in earnest. Normally I'd not care too much about the products but in this case I think it matters because it is software and its important to understand what it is and who they compete with.

Why only a p/e of 10 falling to what 6 next year if they have such an amazing future - can't just be the Greek angle?

Log

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loglorry 6th Jan '13 21 of 36
1

Very nice write up on Globo on TMF here http://boards.fool.co.uk/nfsc-2013-globo-gbo-12717692.aspx by greendaze big hat tip there.

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Monty9 3rd Feb '13 22 of 36
1

Thanks for the link loglorry - I think its a very good summary of the company.

Successful European inventions... wasn't the internet one of those? ;-)
A better analogy might be Google (I am discounting geography here and looking only at good small tech vs. giants).

Another, more relevant example, is Summit software who formed in 1990 to provide better OTC derivatives software to the banking community (initially Westpac of Australia). Within 3 years Misys had bought them for USD 36M. They were competing against Infinity, Rennaisance and other well backed USA offerings but with just one decent customer the quality of their software allowed them to compete eye to eye against the big players.

Occasionally a company that looks too good to be true is nevertheless true. I am not sure we can discount the possibility that Globo could be one of those few. Certainly if the earnings increases as forecast I wouldn't expect to see a decrease in PE to 6. Given the risks 15 is probably nearer the mark.

Even if Globo don't get quite the momentum to hit the big time I think they will be able to offer a decent service to the SME sector similar to AV networks - not what we want but a significant risk mitigator.

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Monty9 3rd Feb '13 23 of 36
1

In reply to marben100, post #13

Its a relief to see the Greek debtors taken care of (or possibly frozen in the receivable for the purchase of the business). As far as the high residual debtor days go I doubt much can be done. Much of the revenue is from end users subscribing to the MNO, which will be collected and reconciled before the MNO credits Globo. They will probably insist on 60 days from that point in the agreement so about 120 is as low as it could go. Now the Greek business (mostly government I think) is gone I guess it will go to about 130 to 180 days. Normally that would be a serious constraint on growth but the product is essentially paid for and the services provided by 3rd party integrators. That level of debtor exposes the company to some risk but should not inhibit growth. Given the (non-Greek government) customers are currently the MNO's that risk is small.

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loglorry 4th Feb '13 24 of 36
2

FWIW I'm very much warming to Globo's GoEnterprise offering. Talked to a good friend who runs an IT support company for lots of SME's during a nice cycle ride. He says it is exactly the sort of product that will sell well to small-medium companies.

I just can't stomach buying after it has run up so much and also put off that they are capitalising IT spend so much to flatter EBITDA. Might get round to it if they sell off a bit - no sign of that yet though.

Log

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shipoffrogs 4th Feb '13 25 of 36
1

Can anyone explain in plain English what GoEnterprise does exactly and why it has such a competitive advantage. Having just visited their website all I can glean is that it provides mobile solutions - Crowded and fast moving market methinks. Now Sage and SAP I can understand.

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loglorry 4th Feb '13 26 of 36
1

frogs its basically two components one on a server next to for example a companies email server usually exchange, The other is a special mobile app which is a container for other small apps like email, reports, calendar etc. These are contained and isolated in the container app on the users phone and let them get at company services like email, reports, calendar etc. by communicating with the server component on the companies server. An admin can add/remove services on the phones dynamically and quickly remotely without ever seeing the phones after the initial container app install.

Its a clever idea and I can see why its attractive to companies and users.

Log


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shipoffrogs 4th Feb '13 27 of 36
1

Hi Log - thanks
I don't know a great deal about IT - but if that's a good idea it just seem easy to replicate to me. It also doesn't seem to have legs. Technology is moving so fast that my guess is that this would all be history in 3/5 years time. And lastly, no-one knows what the competition are developing which may be better. And the competition is pretty serious and big in this field. It's a punt isn't it?

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loglorry 4th Feb '13 28 of 36
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It's not that easy to do and they will obviously continue to innovate as the market changes. It's all down to scale as well. If they can sell it to say 100 million users quickly enough they'll make a considerable sum of money compared to their market cap. I can see the appeal for companies who can't and don't want to manage all these individual phones but still want to mobilize their employees. It also provides a good security wrapper as if the employee looses their phone the s/w can be removed remotely etc. etc.

One of the big s/w vendors like salesforce might render them obsolete in time but more likely they'd buy them out and improve on what they have so far if it was any good.

Log

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shipoffrogs 6th Feb '13 29 of 36

Hmmm - 100 million users! How many customers does, say, Sage have?

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Edward Croft 7th Feb '13 30 of 36
3

In reply to loglorry, post #28

The trouble with most Globo shareholders is they haven't actually downloaded Globo's GoEnterprise product. I did download it and it looked like a walled garden of apps that I'd definitely be reluctant to use.

The future of the enterprise is consumer driven - people with smartphones who download apps that are frankly awesome as standalone products - the challenge for the enterprise is to hook into these systems that people are actually using - not to rebuild inferior versions of them.

Anyone researching Globo should seriously research the app/enterprise area. A good place to start is here - http://techcrunch.com/2013/01/27/the-enterprise-cool-kids/ . Also read up on Marc Andreesen's thoughts on the subject (VC and Netscape founder)

100 million users is a huge number - and even the best standalone apps struggle to manage that.

The numbers look v. compelling, but I remain skeptical of some of the blue sky thinking on Globo.

Blog: Follow @edcroft on Twitter
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shipoffrogs 7th Feb '13 31 of 36
1

It'll end in tears.

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Monty9 8th Feb '13 32 of 36
1

In reply to Edward Croft, post #30

That's worrying, I confess I haven't downloaded the software. Are you sure you downloaded the Go Enterprise software rather than the "Citron Business Operating System"? I think this has been around for some time. Also I don't think the Go Enterprise product is available for download from their website. As I understand it its more in the style of a well encrypted VPN giving wireless access to a corporate network and hence access to workplace apps. The user continues to use their own downloaded Apple and Android apps. The obvious target is the Blackberry service. Not saying GE is a slam dunk but it must have a decent open technical architecture for the integrators who have signed it so far to make the investment.

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loglorry 8th Feb '13 33 of 36
1

I have enquired a bit more and for an SME solution the cost is about $10/device/month which is quite expensive really what you think about it. They sent me a pdf which I'd be happy to upload to S'pedia if I could which gives a bit more info. I've not downloaded and played with the apps though.

I think the point though is that being in a container they can be centrally managed and it isolates them from the users phone and so adds a level of security. I think Ed you are missing the point here as to why they are attractive to a company. A native app is going to be richer but there are security issues and they can't be centrally managed hence the container.

No position.

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Monty9 27th Feb '13 34 of 36

The share price has almost doubled in the last month. Does somebody know something, or has a seller completed their disposal programme allowing the price to rise to a more normal looking valuation? Who knows but at these levels, still concerned about Ed's mediocre impression of the technology, I must confess the stock is less of a 'no brainer' now as the holder must have confidence in GBO's ability to keep the momentum going, in particular Go Enterprise product. With that in mind I notice Ruffer, who are very well regarded in the telecoms sector, hold 4%. I certainly hope they have done their tech diligence as, for the time being at least, I am holding on for the ride.

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john powell 2nd Oct '13 35 of 36

In reply to Roger Lawson, post #15

GLOBO Is there a whiff of a take over? globo announcement today,saying wait for anything further,could be nothing,but their shares have risen recently.

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john powell 2nd Oct '13 36 of 36

very interesting.

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