Highlights from my portfolio 20/02/11

Sunday, Feb 20 2011 by
6

Last week was a nightmare. The LSE feed changes messed up my DDE feed and I struggled all week to know what was going on. Not only that but my alerts were firing everytime a trade was taken on a stock, so I had to work 10 times as hard to work out what was moving and what wasn't.

With hindsight, the best thing would have been to sit on my hands for a week but rightly or wrongly I didn't do that.....

So here we go:

African Eagle Resources (LON:AFE) - I bought because I think some [good] news will emerge.

Alterian (LON:ALN) markst time but if you google Alterian it's amazing what they are getting up to. Of course this has to be translated onto the bottom line but I'm hoping they just need more time.

@uk (LON:ATUK) - I bought a few as all the newsflow appears to be good. It's difficult to understand and impossible to value so I have just bought a few.

Avacta Group (LON:AVCT) is now up nearly 30% in my portfolio. Avacta’s primary aim is to equip biopharmaceutical developers and manufacturers with tools to get their products to market quicker and with reduced cost – reducing risk in the drug development process and optimising product performance. Avacta’s first technology product, Optim, and the Company’s expert services make this possible by permitting compounds to be analysed in much greater detail at an earlier stage in the drug development cycle than can currently be achieved, thereby providing timely identification of problems that can cause costly late stage failures or poor product performance. At the moment they are signing up distributors to sell Optim, the expectation is that there will be a signing in the US shortly.

Avia Health Informatics (LON:AVIA) is an AIM-listed developer and provider of clinical decision support systems. Last week it announced a further three further contracts for its Odyssey products. May be a slow burner. I bought a few.

Avanti Communications (LON:AVN) heaves down on every piece of good news. I took profits on the trade (ref 11/2) because it didn't look like it would keep going. I have now bought back. No, not a case of fiddler's elbow, just a bit of trading! I think that one day we will wake up to a big contract with a Telecom and that can't be timed. I would rather be in than out but if I can garner a few trading points then why not!

£AZEM - the trade isn't going well. Patience required.

£BBYB - convertible preference shares haven't moved but the running yield of around 8% is good, so the risk to conversion really isn't that great.

Bango (LON:BGO) - I bought as a media recovery play but it's down 14% from where I bought. My stop is the 200 moving day average. I should add that I don't worry about the percentage gains/losses on each individual stock I hold but rather worry about it's impact on my portfolio. Because the risk was high e.g. I had a wide stop, the amount I bought was minimal. So even if I get stopped out, I won't really notice the loss.

Baillie Gifford Shin (LON:BGS) continues to burn slowly. I am on the verge of profit.

Berendsen (LON:BRSN) achieved 450 and now we wait for figures to support the price.

£C21 was mentioned on a bulletin board and after some research I bought a few. It's a vehicle installation service provider supplying public transport CCTV and other monitoring system. Nothing very unique but they are doing quite well. I have a very small position.

£CAPD seems to have stalled. I remain invested.

Carclo (LON:CAR) also seems to have stalled. 2011 remains pivotal for their CIT technology. We wait.

Close Enhanced Comm Fund (LON:CED)2 has falled back a bit. I remain invested.

Chaarat Gold (LON:CGH) remains risky but interesting. It has fallen 12% since I bought but it's correctly priced in my portfolio and so I will wait for the next piece of news.

Cairn Energy (LON:CNE) hots up with David Cameron getting involved in resolving the sale of Indian assets to VED. I have gone long on a spreadbet with a guaranteed stop. Now I can sleep at night.

Diamondcorp (LON:DCP) remains firm after I bought but now awaits news. I'm doing a lot of waiting at the moment!

Dialight (LON:DIA) shot up last week. With barriers to entry [for, say, Chinese] like this, one wonders how far it can go:

http://www.cisionwire.com/the-gupta-partnership/dialight-stands-as-the-only-qualified-u-s--manufacturer-of-led-traffic-signals-for-stimulus-projects-

Discovery Metals (LON:DME) has stalled for now. I await further news on progress.

Dq Entertainment (LON:DQE) is now in profit, rising after a new deal was announced.

Devro (LON:DVO) continues to drift. I thought the chart was improving and bought a few more but the jury is out. I'm quite sure people are eating more sausages.....so happy to sit this out.

Entertainment One (LON:ETO) - I bought a few on weakness as I think the pullback after excellent results is just that: a pullback.

First Artist (LON:FAN) - I took profits. Too many 'tipsters' are behind it....I prefer in general to stay away when that happens.

Firestone Diamonds (LON:FDI) looked a lot like it was going to move upwards and so I bought more. Cue move downwards! I think this year could be transformational for FDI so I am happy to hold for now.

4imprint Group (LON:FOUR) - I bought as a recovery play. So far I am just shy of breakeven/

Fiberweb (LON:FWEB) is now up 5% in my porfolio. I am happy to hold for now.

£GCL is now up 16% in my porfolio, off highs but I still think 2011 will be a good year for Uranium so unless my stop is hit I will continue to hold.

Central China Goldfields (LON:GGG) (last update 11/2) is now up some 27% in my porfolio. Lots of drilling going on and lots of newsflow expected. It may not all be good of course but so far the signs are good.

HRX (Canada) is now up some 26% in my porfolio. Similar field to Senior (LON:SNR) and imvho a bid candidate.

Harvey Nash Group (LON:HVN) - I was tempted after booting MTEC for a loss to avoid the recruitment sector but that would have been a bit emotional and I try to keep emotion out of my trading. The interims were good and it's debt free. I note David Schwartz notes in Weekend FT that he thinks it is still undervalued. I agree.

IEnergizer (LON:IBPO) is now up just shy of 20% in my portfolio.

Indian Energy (LON:IEL) - I bought a few. I'd love to tell you why but I've fogotten. It's going up, maybe that's all it was!

Intandem Films (LON:IFM) has stalled. We wait further news.

India Capital Growth (LON:IGC) - I bought a few as it was going up and I thought, perhaps that India had fallen enough. I wait.

IP Group (LON:IPO) - I bought a few because it holds some interesting positions (commercialising university technology). There's a bit of a bubble out there, so I will be careful with this one.

£JPB - I bought a few on basis Brazil had fallen enough. If I'm wrong 'I'm oot'.

Kryso Resources (LON:KYS) - stalled and waiting for news of project finance. March 8 is key date.

Merchant House (LON:MHG) - Whaaaaaat?! Yes, I bought a few. I met the management and it's a 'punt' on them turning the company round. A small position.

Mirada (LON:MIRA) - I have bought a few. A dotcom survivor. The pivotal deal is with Ericsson. They get a royalty per box Ericsson sells (into an 80m box market of which Ericsson hope to capture 10%). I believe the royalty to be in the region of 3euro per box. The company is currently captitalised at £5m. It's a hockey stick chart.....it's just hard to tell how far the ball is going to travel and at what trajectory.

Medusa Mining (LON:MML) - I sold into weakness and then I bought into strength.

Monitise (LON:MONI) is now up 12% in my portfolio (latest trade). It continues to be volatile but timing is impossible so I have decided to just sit and wait.

Noble Investments (UK) (LON:NBL) - I have bought a few. I've missed a lot of the rise but it seems to be doing well.

NEOVIA Financial (LON:NEO) - awaits something to move the price.

£NG. - continues to bat towards 500 again.

Nautilus Minerals (LON:NUS) last trade remains underwater but the drilling results look good, more of them to come so I'll sit and wait.

Ormonde Mining (LON:ORM) - I bought a few after an interesting presentation at Minesite:

http://www.presentation-matters.co.uk/web/minesite/webcasts/76th_minesite_forum/76th_minesite_mining_forum_Ormonde.html

Doing business in Spain can be slow but for now it looks interesting.

Ortac Resources (LON:OTC) trade mentioned 11/2 did not go well so I decided to catch a falling knife and buy some more. Last week Seymour Pierce put out a buy rec at 3p and Optiva suggested 3.39p. Personally I think it's going to disappoint but money is money is money and so I took profits on my top-up and still hold some. I will sell into good news.

Pinnacle Telecom Group (LON:PINN) numbers out Monday. Gulp.

Royal Dutch Shell B (LON:RDSB) - hit my stop and I sold. It went up afterwards!

Rambler Metals (LON:RMM) shot up on good news and I shot in.....too early. I wait.

Range Resources (LON:RRL) came down a bit and I was able to get back in. Not my finest trading out but it has some good projects and now it's a waiting game.

RUG (Canada) remains firm.

Sagentia Group Ag (LON:SAG) - I bought a few. Results date due out soon. Strong chart.

Syndicate Asset Management (LON:SAM) - I heard that they are turning round the business. I have only bought a few.

Specialist Energy Group (LON:SEGR) - has stalled for now but I think there is demand for their products so it's just a waiting game. I made 12% on my first trade and an up just shy of 18% on my second. So far so good.

£SL. hit my stop and I sold. It went up afterwards!

Senior (LON:SNR) pushes back to 160. I am hopeful for 180 and then 200.

Spirent Communications (LON:SPT) is now up just shy of 10% and appears to be going well ahead of numbers. I wait.

Serabi Mining (LON:SRB) - a moment of madness. I bought a few.

Templeton Emerging (LON:TEM) - I bought a few on basis emerging markets had fallen enough. The trade is early on the chart but so far so good.

Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) remains firm.

Trifast (LON:TRI) fell on numbers that didn't excite. I sold.

Utilico Emerging (LON:UEM) is an old fav of mine. I bought.

Valirx (LON:VAL) - another moment of madness but they seem to be moving into sales.....I really don't have a good 'excuse'.

Vectura Group (LON:VEC) has been a bit of a disaster, down 8%. It's on a warning.

Velti (LON:VEL) - madness moments come in three's. It looks a bit toppy but I bought a few just 'in case' there's more to come. I will be out sharpish if it starts to fall.

Vatukoula Gold Mines (LON:VGM) remains weak but off lows. I had a long chat to the CEO and FD recently and remain convinced they know what they are doing and will bring the mine back into full operation at some point this year.

Worldspreads (LON:WSPR) - I bought after a Director bought.

Weatherly International (LON:WTI) continues to be weak and I decided to buy more. I believe in the story, I believe copper price will continue to rise and I believe there is a copper supply shortfall.

Zanaga Iron Ore (LON:ZIOC) - selling when I did was a good idea. Buying back when I did was not.

I have taken proftis in PUB and PRTY shorts and took a small loss on OML short.


Disclaimer:  

Please keep in mind that all comments made by Susan Marmor are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice regarding the purchase or sale of securities, options, futures or any other financial instrument of any kind. Consult with your investment advisor before making an investment decision regarding any securities mentioned herein. Susan Marmor assumes no responsibility for your trading and investment results. Susan Marmor does not warrant completeness or accuracy for any observations made herein, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Susan Marmor may have a position in the securities and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies. There is a very high degree of risk involved in any type of trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Securities, options, futures and any other financial instruments can go down as well as plunge.


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African Eagle Resources plc is a United Kingdom based investment company. The Company's objective is to generate an attractive rate of return for Shareholders, by taking advantage of opportunities to invest in the natural resources, infrastructure and services sectors. The Company retains a 10% free carried interest in the Dutwa nickel project in Tanzania. more »

Price
0.275p
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n/a
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n/a
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cloudBuy plc is a provider of an integrated software platform for e-procurement and e-commerce for the trading of goods and services between purchasers, such as public sector bodies and their suppliers, along with the analysis and coding of spend and product data. The Company's operating segments include Company Formation Services, Web and ecommerce services and Coding International Limited. It also provides services to new businesses, including incorporation, company secretary services and filing annual returns, using its software platform. Its solutions include e-commerce Marketplaces, e-commerce Websites, Purchasing Portals, SpendInsight and Company formations. SpendInsight service provides regular analysis of any company's historical spend data. It offers a range of Website packages from templated solutions to Intranets and global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce sites. The cloudBuy platform enables rapid extension of its solutions and development of new applications. more »

LSE Price
3.13p
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Mkt Cap (£m)
4.1
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9 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

Johan Silva 20th Jun '11 1 of 9

Your in way too many stocks. Two outstanding copper shares.

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smarm 20th Jun '11 2 of 9
1

In reply to Johan Silva , post #1

The list is not up to date.

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Fangorn 22nd Jun '11 3 of 9
4

Whilst having exposure to so many stocks leaves one stretched on the keeping up to date front, in terms of diversification, her approach seems rather sensible.Perusing the advfn boards one gets the impression that most people are using concentrated portfolios(often of 1-3 stocks only) which in my view is highly dangerous.Particularly if they're all in the same sector as seems often the case.

Now whilst such an approach might yield greater returns in a booming market any retrace is going to see those with highly concentrated portfolios burned badly. Some will get their picks spot on, most will end up with non performers I suspect and lose alot of money. Even those that do pick the winners I can empathise with those who's highly concentrated portfolios consisted of say EO, NPE, XEL or Kefi, OTC, RRR. Much depends on timing of purchase and many still have decent profits in the likes of the above, but their total worth has been,in most cases reduced dramatically given the brutal retrace over the last few months.

At the end of the day it all depends on one's risk. tolerance and approach. I'd far rather adopt Smarm's diversified approach(miners,especially small ones are rather hit and miss and prone to either soaring or going bust) than have a highly concentrated portfolio of 1-3 stocks.But that's just me.

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smarm 22nd Jun '11 4 of 9
1

In reply to Fangorn, post #3

Hi Fangorn, welcome back.

I have around 25 stocks now and am about 50% invested. I prefer to be diversified because it avoids bubbles or exuberance. I've seen too many people bet and lose the house believing some silly hype they read on a BB.

For example, there is a current fashion for setting up investment vehicles for 'resource' stocks. Two that come to mind are Veridas and Crosby Asset Management. . The price of both stocks was ramped up to silly levels in the hope of a transformational deal. Now why would either buy assets at the top of the market and at a time financing is getting harder again? I am interested in neither stock but if I were, it would be for a tiny speculative bit of fun and not a house sized stake.

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Fangorn 22nd Jun '11 5 of 9

I've been taking a look at Crosby but can't seem to justify the current exuberant price.

Plenty of bargains out there for sure across the board. Just a question of spotting the value traps, of which i suspect there are many.

Tough old market to invest in at the moment. I see one of my favourites, Baobab, has dropped dramatically whilst I've been away.

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smarm 22nd Jun '11 6 of 9

In reply to Fangorn, post #5

Investors believe in the management to buy an asset that will make them rich. If only it were that simple. It's been interesting to watch. With the oil price as high as it is, and markets waiting for parts of europe to implode, I can't really see much m&a or asset buying myself, so I'm steering well clear. No doubt they will all ten bag. LOL.

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Fangorn 22nd Jun '11 7 of 9

Agree, if only it were that simple.

Am nibbling at high divi payers as and when the market falls out of bed. Main focus is Aviva, Rsa, Bae, Irv, Utilities(despite Neil Woodford being negative on the likes of UU,SVT,SSE and Co), Vod, CNA, HSD, BP, EMG and Mars. Commodities do form a large segment of my portfolio, but no greater than 35%(The majority of which is Oil and Gold focused rather than Copper, Iron ore)

Still reviewing Sarasin Agrisar for some agricultural exposure.

But am still, rather reluctantly, largely in cash.So not great news there but I'm expecting most assets, such as property,where I'm looking to buy for some rental value, and stocks to fall back significantly. Am expecting bonds to implode across the board in the not too distant future.

Decisions, decisions.

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smarm 23rd Jun '11 8 of 9

In reply to Fangorn, post #7

I don't think Neil Woodford has had a great few years but I'm a big convert to divi stocks. NG. is a fav and imeven reinvest the dividends! So far so good. TEP is another excellent divi play, I hold most of mine at +5% yield.

We agree on bonds but I'm not so sure re the big fall in equties. Lehman collapse came as a shock, who isn't expecting Greece to default....can it have the same impact?

Bloomberg made the observation that S&P is falling against 18% profit gains....making it cheap. The question is whether growth has stalled or just hit a road bump.

Difficult to know how it will turn out...I am taking stops and am not really buying much. That said, I have bought more SNR, MRO and TEP!

S

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Fangorn 23rd Jun '11 9 of 9

The great thing about solid dividend paying blue chips(BP aside of course) is that you can tuck them away, forget about them on the whole, and reinvest those juicy yields. Agree on Woodford front performance wise(and current performance wont have been helped by Imperial Tobacco and falling spanish sales) but I suspect he will come into his own once there is a flight to defensives in the not too distant future.

I think the impact of Greece defaulting will trigger mass panic, purely on the presumption that Spain,Portugal,Ireland or Italy will be next. The more defaults, the greater the chance that the UK and France will be seriously impacted.And then it's game over imv.

There are however alot of companies that apparently have significant cash on their balance sheets.With falling asset prices I expect an upturn in M&A, particularly in Finance and Resource sectors.

TEP...that's had a very nice rise recently I see...

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