Irish Shares 2012 – The Good & The Bad

Monday, Jan 07 2013 by
2

I’m just finalizing my review of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (TGISVP) for 2012. My end-Q3 review is here & here for reference (and this post’s relevant also – it may even offer some interesting commentary on general stock selection & valuation). In this post I’ll cover last year’s winners & losers.

NB: FY 2012 performance is TGISVP specific, i.e. it’s only measured from the specific date I set a target price for each stock in Q1 2012. [Apologies if you'd prefer actual FY 2012 stock performances - but I'm sure there would be a high degree of overlap, anyway]. There’s no M&A to highlight for Q4 – the only items of note are i) United Drug (UDG:LN) abandoned its Irish listing in favour of London, and ii) Elan (ELN:US) spun out its drug-discovery unit, Prothena Corp (PRTA:US) – but the impact for shareholders was minimal.

Here’s the 2012 Top 10 Winners

Hmm, my pick of the winners looks like a real coin toss – I was only bullish on half these stocks! [Wait for my next post to see how I did overall with TGISVP, despite this...]. Now I look again, I actually own none of these winners. Crikey, how on earth did I even manage a (measly) +20.2% performance on my Total Portfolio last year?! 

Providence Resources is the only genuine resource stock winner here. It now carries a a heavy weight on its shoulders – the hopes & dreams of investors who’ve lost buckets on other resource stocks! Proving I’m not a permanent resource stock bear, I was reasonably bullish on PVR. Obviously my valuation was risk-weighted, so actual/continued success with its Barryroe discovery prompted PVR, not surprisingly, to run well ahead of my price target.

I was also bullish on Datalex & United Drug, but under-estimated their popularity. I’ll admit my DLE valuation was conservative, reflecting the company’s small size & low level of profitability. In reality, underlying profitability could be far higher, but it’s absorbed by continued investment & contract acquisitions. In all likelihood, a takeover’s needed here to crystallize DLE’s ultimate valuation, but that may still be some years away (quite rightly). On the other hand, I expect United Drug…

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Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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About Wexboy

Wexboy

My personal investing career began with an emerging markets obsession. Investing in individual emerging market stocks was a much taller order then than today, so I gravitated towards investment fund shares and warrants. Little did I know that (despite the volatility involved) this would turn out to be a very fortunate approach – it pretty much saved me from the consequences of poor/misguided stock analysis, chasing stock tips and investing in garbage stocks all the way down to zero.... Only when I learned of value investing did I finally discover a quantitative approach, plus a set of tools, that appealed to me and equipped me better for investing. And I guess it appealed to my mathematical background and perhaps my natural scepticism. It also tempered my lust to dive into investment trends – in fact, I’ve come to realize that any decent secular trend will take many many years to play out and there will be cycles of booms and busts in any related stocks to exploit, so hold your horses, stick to value investing and your chance will come…!  more »


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