Is this the end of the FTSE bull run?

19th Apr '17 by ambrosia

4 comments 2720 reads

Is this the end of the FTSE bull run?

The snap election will either give the Tories more power over Brexit and lessen uncertainty, or a shock result with the remainers back in power and we don't have to leave EU.

My point is unless the elections leave us in a similar uncertain muddle like we're in now the pound is unlikely to fall again in the short term.

Also looking long term back at the FTSE 100, it ended the last century, at the end of December 1999 at '6930', by Dec 2016 it was only at '6100'. It never reached 1999 levels in the years preceding 2008 or following

In fact the 7300 value a few days ago was the 1st breakout above previous highs since 1999 (and thats not factoring inflation or value of the pound, i'm not clever enough for that, its straight of the chart).

Please feel free to pull apart the above, i'm fairly new to trading, know nothing and put this forward as a question not a statement

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Blissgull

20th Apr '17

"is that the end of the FTSE bull run"

Well, if you find anyone who can answer that then please let us all know!

Or perhaps I should say, if anyone claims they can answer that then tell them they are full of *&^*

For me personally, I have been moving into cash for the last few months. I do think that we are unlikely to see much upside from here. The summer months are not seasonally strong for the stock market and I would rather be out. But that is more risk management on my part, rather than any prediction.

To me the UK does not look too high, but the USA looks overvalued. I think the danger may be that we will follow the US down if problems arise there. Of course, the US market may well go much higher first.

No advice, no predictions, but I'm staying away for now.

ambrosia

thanks Blissgull, your advise is much appreciated

so my failed break out theory is a little naive

is it wrong to take a chart so far back, in looking at data 17 years ago am i looking at data which is no longer relevant, previous high in 1999 was the tech boom after all.

bubbles and one of events confuse me in how to deal with them within charts
I never know when i'm looking at charts whether to include data before brexit announcement or exclude it. Do i cut it off as pre june was a different era, or include it as it can show a share potential price

Rusty2

I would not go too much on the FTSE 100, it is dominated by a few large companies, mainly banks and oil companies. The FTSE 100 has not done well in the last 17 years but other indexes have done much better, take a look at the FTSE250 and the FTSE Small cap. I have similar feelings to Blissgull, I think there will be a correction in the next 2 years. There are a lot of changes going on in the world, markets are high, due a recession?

You know Herbie, when I heard the election announcement my first thought was "Does the PM fear she will be fighting the election in a recession if she waits till 2020?"

Is this the end of the FTSE bull run?

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Ambrosia

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