I started this year suggesting that losing money in a bear market was as easy as making money in a bull just more painful, a lot more painful. Today I am at a crossroads my year hasn’t been too bad I bought into Commodities Mining & Gold, plus Asia and Emerging Markets near the bottom and so have a comfortable profit. Well--- I was already in Gold but transferred my holding to my SIPP consolidated the loss and saw the rebound tax free.
As I write this my gold share ETF is showing a one day fall of 12.7%, obviously all the pessimists are selling down the pre Brexit insurance and I am worried that my hedge against disaster is just about to be a disaster of the another kind.
Anyone who has read what I have written or responded too, on this site will know I have been bearish for a couple of years, I anticipate a correction which will push the market down by at least 25% and yesterday was critical. Markets turn on large rises or falls and yesterday we crashed up against a major resistance on both the FTSE 100 and 250. Having waited this long to get into the market do I believe in my gut feeling or do I prepare to eat humble pie and move in once the resistance is obviously penetrated. Question --how is the word “obviously” quantified? Probably a bit like “stop loss” good intention poor execution.
So this is what I am going to do--- I can’t stomach moving into the market only to see my “gut feeling proved correct “ I am going to sit on the cash, hold onto my mining, gold and commodities and hope like hell that I am probably the only person in the world that got it right!!!!! One of the first things I was taught was “cash is king” but my mentor wasn’t getting less than 1% on the cash. Another generation, another rule change, or do we all keep repeating the same mistakes to varying degrees of pain and joy.
I spent my adult life believing that I was a cautious person when in reality I am a gambler, I like to win by not following the heard or listening to the “wise man”. Will I be a winner or a loser? If I lose I…
Ken, You should be aware that the pound has fallen steeply - 30 year low or something. If the pound does not go up before your expected crash then you will get less for your money if you buy foreign shares. This factor is making me a bit reluctant. However, if you did and the pound then recovers you will do well.
