Life After Ugandan Drilling

Monday, Jun 15 2009 by
8

Iti-1 Completed and abandoned with a clear implication that GBP are not going to use any further resources in this area.

 I am interested in what may happen in the shorter term.  Based on current SP valuation 15/6/09 Global are £10.5m  and  what they do have  available to them is approx. £13.5m and 25% of the EA5 Licence.  I am ignoring the pending legal action and Leighton as I do not believe this will have any significance in the next 9-12 months.

Whilst there is substantial overlap with TRP I am taking a view they will keep the two companies separate as Namibia is LT and they will have plenty of exposure to Uganda via TRP anyway.  Surely the GBP vehicle will have looked at a number of plays in the interim period which due to the unfortunate circumstances at Iti-1 could now be brought to the forefront.  The question in my mind is which territories would appeal to management and how quickly they realistically may now move.  For a number of months it has been said how many O&G plays have been depressed due to lack of funding, well GBP may be about to step up to the plate but where ? 


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Global Petroleum Limited is engaged in the oil and gas exploration, development and production. The Namibian Project consists of an 85% participating interest in Petroleum Exploration Licence No. 002 (Licence) covering Offshore Blocks 1910B and 2010A in the Republic of Namibia. The Licence covers 11,730 square kilometers and is located in offshore Namibia in water depths ranging from 1,300 meters to 3,000 meters. On August 26, 2011, the Company announced that it had completed the acquisition of Jupiter Petroleum Limited (Jupiter) which holds prospective oil and gas exploration interests in offshore Namibia and in offshore Juan de Nova, a French dependency in the Mozambique Channel. On February 28, 2012, the Company sold its interest in the Olmos production wells and related lease, which formed part of the Leighton Project. In June 2013, the Company sold Eagle Ford Shale assets. more »

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132 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

oilretire 1st Feb '11 113 of 132
2

Oz trades -

after sitting on the fence yesterday with only 20k traded after the 4Q report & Jupiter news was released, they have burst into life today with what looks like the biggest volume by far for a long time down there with just shy of 3M traded & up 9% based on the last trade. I guess they just follow London rather than lead?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=GBP

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howdidthathappen 2nd Feb '11 114 of 132
1

In reply to oilretire, post #108

Jupiter is owned 50/50 by the two Peters.........who stand to gain 25M GBP shares each.

Isn't that 25M GBP shares in total?

I've done a rough valuation in the other place, which  values GBP at cash + 7*current US cashflow, valuing Namibia at cost and Uganda at Nil.

Annoyingly, I can't seem to paste from my clipboard to Stockopedia, so if anyone wants to post the link that would be great.

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thegreatgeraldo 2nd Feb '11 115 of 132
1

So the 2 Petes go from having 50% each of Jupiter to around 20% each (based on around 40mill shares each) via their GBP holding - but gain an indirect listing for same, which has given GBP's SP a bit of a kick (& saved them the hassle & expense of listing Jupiter).

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oilretire 2nd Feb '11 116 of 132

In reply to howdidthathappen, post #114

Isn't that 25M GBP shares in total?

Yes, sorry, got a bit mixed up - it is 25M in total split between them.

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muckshifter 6th Feb '11 117 of 132
4

Just came back from a holiday and saw a surprising jump in GBP share price. So I then read the RNS and found it a bit garbled. Realising that it might be an abreviated version of an ASX announcement I then read that version and found it far more clear on, for example, the sequences and their commitments in terms of the Namibian licenses, as well as providing plans showing the location.

However, neither announcement, afaics, gave the start date for the first four year exploration license period, which I suspect was the trigger for the sale, ie, I suspect the four years expires quite soon. This obviously pitches us straight into the two high cost license extensions if it is the case so we'd better get on with the "farming" asap. The other noticeable thing from the ASX announcement is that the license areas seem to cover deeper water than most, which presumably will make the drilling etc expensive, but isn't it water of this depth where the latest hydrocarbon predictive technology is most successful?

The Madagascar channel license looks quite promising from the small plan shown even though aiui detailed investigation there is sparse, as it looks almost like an extension to the Exxon licenses off Madagascar. But what I didn't like there was the partner. Unless my memory is failing, Wessex is yet another vehicle for Bramhill (of deserved Nighthawk infamy). If that is the case the license is worth sfa imho, as I can't imagine anyone giving Bramhill the money to work the license and his clearly demonstrated "purchasing skills" probably devalue the license in terms of potential buyers. Hope I'm wrong and someone big farms in soon to prove it rather than waiting for the license to lapse. Anyone know much about the prospects in that channel?
Regards.

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peterg 6th Feb '11 118 of 132
3

In reply to muckshifter, post #117

Hi MS

However, neither announcement, afaics, gave the start date for the first four year exploration license period, which I suspect was the trigger for the sale, ie, I suspect the four years expires quite soon.

You are possibly wrong in that assumption. The 2010 map of Namibian Hydrocarbon Licenses (http://www.mme.gov.na/pdf/petroleum_licenses_01_2010.pdf) shows 1910B and 2010A as being vacant, so they may have been recently awarded. I've emailed the company to enquire, as it would be useful to know!

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muckshifter 6th Feb '11 119 of 132

In reply to peterg, post #118

Hope you're right Peter, will watch out for confirmation one way or the other, when you get a reply.
Thanks for the response anyway, and let's hope the "vacant" designation wasn't caused by lack of activity and a short remaining license period!
Regards.

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morality 12th Feb '11 120 of 132
1

Big rise here this week. Looks like that is on the back of the new Namibian assets and the valuation of similar ones by CHAR and TRP.

The picture has certainly changed dramatically for GBP since the announcement.

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RedTedsRoadshow 9th Mar '11 121 of 132
2

What do people think of the huge rise over the last few weeks since the two Peters swapped their Namibian acreage from Jupiter into GBP?

Yes it looks prospective acreage; Yes they have a large chunk of cash; Yes they have other interesting acreage;

As morality says it looks like small punters buying in based on comparative valuation of CHAR & TRP. Both over-valued imo.

I've been selling into the rises as the risk/reward has changed - from a 'safe-as-houses' company valuation entirely backed by cash with assets in for free into a more speculative investment. I still hold loads but will continue to sell into any rises.

Actually, as I type a few things occur to me - (1) It really was cheap when the Peters were buying back under 10p; (2) the assets are now being valued by the market wheras before they were being ignored; (3) the phrase 'safe-as-houses' is probably not what it used to be.

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RedTedsRoadshow 10th Mar '11 122 of 132
2

This seems to be confirmation that the rise is punters piling in or perhaps 'the market waking up to the value in the company'...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110310/pdf/41xbyjr3fcgtzr.pdf

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oilretire 8th Apr '11 123 of 132
2

Peeler 2 tested at 252boepd & to be online for sales in two weeks.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01169483

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oilretire 20th Jul '11 125 of 132
3

Small beer compared to the Namibian story unfolding, but good to see the US wells continue to come in good.

Seems Peeler 3 was the biggest step out to the north yet & further de-risks 24 undrilled wells.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=TXN



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oilretire 22nd Jul '11 126 of 132
3

Two days in a row!

This time the 2nd horizontal Eagle Ford well comes up with the goods.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110722/pdf/41zx573fw1bh7r.pdf



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oilretire 2nd Aug '11 127 of 132
3

Interesting & well respected sounding appointment.........

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201108020745005474L

...............appointment of highly respected energy industry executive Mr Peter Hill as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Company.

Mr Hill has extensive experience in the energy sector as a senior executive with a significant track record worldwide in high-level M&A and business development roles, primarily in the oil industry. Most recently Mr Hill was the global head of Corporate M&A for Statoil ASA, where he was responsible for several large transactions, being a key member of the team responsible for Statoil's merger with Norsk Hydro Oil & Gas in December 2006, and leading the acquisition of EnCana's Gulf of Mexico deepwater assets in 2005. Prior to agreeing to join Global, Mr Hill was responsible for supervising execution of the IPO of Statoil's Energy & Retail division in the latter part of 2010.

Previously Mr Hill set up the international business of Waterous & Co as Managing Director in the UK, and before that worked for Enterprise Oil plc for many years, latterly as Head of International New Ventures. Mr Hill started in the energy industry with Total Oil Marine and is a UK qualified Solicitor, having commenced his career with Clifford Chance. He holds an MA in Law from Oxford University.

Mr Hill's immediate focus will be to expedite the exploration of the highly prospective project located in Namibia upon completion of the acquisition by Global of Jupiter Petroleum Limited, which is expected to occur in late August 2011.

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oilretire 3rd Oct '11 128 of 132
3

17 days into the 30 day initial test period and EFS 2H has already produced more than the first well produced during a 30 day test.

21k boed so far compared to 19.6k boed. As per all these EF wells, the rate is dropping off from an initial high, but looks like meaningful rates (for this project) are more sustainable.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111003/pdf/421hp4chx9m1qq.pdf

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fuiseog 10th Jan '12 129 of 132

Good bit of movement here today with SP 12%+ but I can't find anything in the media that's driving it. Volumes are high. Do we have a leak in advance of news or is it just a bit of noise?

fuiseog

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FlightoftheKiwi 10th Jan '12 130 of 132
2

In the September 2011 quarterly GBP advised:

"Following interpretation of the historic seismic data, the Company commenced a 2D
seismic survey of approximately 2,000 kms over its prospective oil and gas exploration
blocks offshore Namibia. Processing and interpretation of the data from the new 2D
seismic survey is expected to be completed by the end of the year."

I suspect the 35% rise since 21 Dec is in anticipation of the results of this 2D exercise being released an being quality
,

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patterbu 23rd Feb '12 131 of 132

It looks as if there is another leak, this time not exactly positive though

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peterg 23rd Feb '12 132 of 132
1

In reply to patterbu, post #131

It looks as if there is another leak, this time not exactly positive though

Surely just an unsurprising correction afer a very strong move up on no hard news?

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