WTI $52.74 -4c, Brent $58.73 +12c, Diff $5.99 +16c, NG $2.77 +4c
Oil price
Those prices up above do not reflect the nature of this morning's marketplace as the deals being done in Brussels and Vienna have rather altered things. WTI at $51.36 and Brent at $56.97 is more realistic as the talks between P5+1 and Iran have continued and the final deadline has been extended until tonight. That has led people to believe that a deal is in the offing although still with little certainty as to the timing of the ending of sanctions and the nature of the arms ban yet to emerge. Let’s assume that white smoke does puff from the chimney, crude markets would probably fall although I suspect that much of the bad news is already in the price, so to speak. Yes, production and exports will rise but given there is already cheating it may be less than feared, and yes with plenty of crude in floating storage some will come onto the market and knock prices but it may not be as bad as some pessimists think. Uber bears think that this extra supply will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back with oil markets already awash with crude.
The three main oil forecasters are setting out their stalls with the IEA coming out on Friday to add to the EIA and Opec will publish this morning, all either have, or are expected to say, that the market remains oversupplied and oil prices will remain subdued. The IEA went on to say that the recent ‘golden era’ for refiners would end soon although if oil prices remain low and product demand even holds up, (remember all that data from Friday’s blog) I wouldn't shed any tears right now. With the 2Q results season just over the horizon the majors will report very good numbers downstream, it will be interesting to see what the outlook is.
So, Greece has done its deal with the EU and must now get it approved by Parliament, having backtracked so much it will be interesting to see how Mr Tsipras sells this to a country that voted 60% No only a week ago…I suspect that he will avoid the use of the word humiliating but perhaps good housekeeping may replace austerity.
There is certainly a pattern emerging in the weekly rig count numbers with Friday's data showing a rise of…
