Afternoon All,

Top 5 positives/negatives for the market in 2016?!?

This topic is obviously being spoke about in a broader context currently as volatility has ramped up in recent months.

I’ve been out of the market for the past 12 months and I’m currently debating to invest (value permitting), prior to selecting any individual stocks, funds etc I’m carrying out sense check of the market and the direction its going.

As a discussion topic I’m intrigued how people view the market currently and what are the perceived positives/negative arguments. I’ll set the ball rolling:

Negatives
1. Rising Interest Rates in the West.
2. Migrant Crisis/Brexit (Euro uncertainty).
3. China Soft Landing.
4. Sovereign Wealth Funds releasing capital to balance books of oil exporting nations.

Neutrals
1. Western Growth rates (sluggish/slow growth – better than negative growth!).

Positives
1. Low Oil Prices.
2. Monitory Relaxation (more QE).
3. Negative Interest rates.

Each item certainly isn’t clear cut and it’s easy to add pro/cons in each case.

Negatives - In brief I see rising interest rates having a medium term squeeze on economies, although longer term returning to a norm level is obviously a healthy situation. Upcoming Brexit will provide uncertainty and possibly delay business decisions, judging by how close the poles are looking this can only be a negative for the market. China soft landing, drag on global growth, especially bad for commodity rich countries (Auss especially). Sovereign wealth funds – speaks for itself.

Neutrals – Whilst the past few years have seen overall improvements in economic output/growth in the west, this has obviously occurred under the guise of QE and once the band age is fully removed/rates start to move northwards I’m unconvinced many economies can stand on their own two feet.

Positives – Low oil price, great for consumers and business, bad for oil producing nations who’s finances are left with a gaping hole, overall positive though. QE, its helpful and has worked to an extent, but not the long term answer. Neg rates, bad for banks, emphasising the dire situation many counties find themselves but good for business who want to borrow at low rates and home owners etc.

I’ve obviously only…

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