More year-end introspection – but only a little

Sunday, Dec 30 2012 by
3

I made a little note to myself to review a post I made on 6 Jan 2012.

Thomas Cook (TCG)

I puffed myself up like a peacock having correctly called the collapse of TCG in 2011. I had nothing to say about it for 2012. It’s a good job I didn’t bad-mouth it, because the shares went up 200% during that period. I suspect we’ll see further recovery for 2012, given they’ve got new directors, some breathing space for debt, and an actual plan as to how they’ll get out of the hole they’re in.

It’s a bold call on my part, and one for which there’s considerable risk that I’ll look foolish over, but we shall see. 45p

Blacks Leisure

I spoke about that in a recent post. Moving on.

GEONG International (GNG)

A company with more cash than market cap (ostensibly), and a PER of 2.5. I actually called it as a short candidate. Turns out I was bang on the money, because it lost 67% in share price. I seem to have a very good track record with shorting ideas, although I have never followed up on them. To some extent, I think it’s much easier to have good shorting ideas than it is to have good long ones. It is a Chinese stock – which very much helps if you’re looking for short ideas. Revenues were down, there were new auditors at some point, and I remember reading from the accounts that directors couldn’t seem to keep their story straight. In an RNS they might mention how they were paying attention to cash collection, and in others they said that it would go down due to their new improved business model. Glancing over the stats on Sharelock Holmes, I see that their interest cover is inadequate at 3.3, the z score is a suspicious 2.3. In fact, the interest cover is too generous – now, as ever, they are net cashflow negative, so the P&L account isn’t worth the paper it’s written onk, as far as I’m concerned. They have net cash of 2.5m, against net operating cashflows of 2.2m, so presumably they’ll run out of money soon unless they can convince someone to pour in some more caipital, or they convert their receivables to cash. Ah yes, the ol’ receivables situation. Receivables now stand at over 2 years of revenues. Many words have been spilled over the legitimacy, or otherwise, on this situation, but I’ll boil it down to one word for you: un-freaking-believable. OK, it’s hyphenated, but it’s still one word. Investment recommendation? Cannot Recommend A Purchase. ’nuff said

Afferro Mining Inc (LON:AFF)

I talked about that recently. Moving on.

Justin Urquhart Stewart

He’s the real reason I’m bothering to do this writeup. He mentioned late 2011 that distressed debt investing would be an area to look at. This piqued my interest, because I had a holding in ICP (Intermediate Capital) that also good opportunities in debt, and had been raising funds to pursue them. Over 1year, Intermediate Capital (LON:ICP) is up 40.1%, beating the healthy returns of the FTSE250, even. Just goes to show. Justin isn’t just a city mouthpiece in red suspenders. It’s conceivable that he’s actually worth listening to! Go Justin!

I think 2012 has been a very useful learning experience for me in the markets. I hope to provide a more thorough “what I learnt” around April time. Tax time.

Until then, happy investing, and may you all have a healthy and joyful 2013. Later dude.


About the Author's Blog

Mark Carter Profile Image Promotional
Mark Carter's Blog

Investment blog of an amateur private investor. The blog also contains non-investment related posts. ...read more or visit website »


Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


Do you like this Post?
Yes
No
4 thumbs up
1 thumb down
Share this post with friends



Thomas Cook Group plc is a United Kingdom-based leisure travel company. The Company operates in 14 source markets across Europe through its various brands, including Thomas Cook, Neckermann, Condor, JetTours, Ving, Spies and Tjareborg. The Company operates its business through four business segments: United Kingdom and Ireland, Airlines Germany, Continental Europe and Northern Europe. The Company's subsidiaries include Thomas Cook Investments (2) Limited, Thomas Cook Finance plc, Thomas Cook Finance (2) Limited, Thomas Cook Finance (Jersey) Limited and Thomas Cook Group Management Services Limited. The Northern Europe segment operates 10 retail outlets and 11 aircrafts. The Continental Europe offers 2227 outlets and six aircrafts. Airline Germany operates 40 aircrafts. The UK and Ireland division operates 847 retail outlets and 31 aircrafts. more »

Share Price (Full)
125.6p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,835
P/E (fwd)
9.4
Yield (fwd)
2.5

GEONG International Limited (GEONG) is an Internet software solutions provider and operator for large enterprises in China. The Company operates in two business segments: IaaS (Information as a Service)- GEONG Smart Internet Solution and SaaS (Software/Solution as a Service) - GEONG Social Business. IaaS is a project based business by contract which includes: consulting services, such as online business, digital marketing and Information Technology (IT) strategy consulting to clients; software and business solutions, such as GEONG, GEONG-IBM and GEONG-Oracle Smart Internet Platform; implementation and deployment, which includes software application customization and deployment services, such as business analysis, customization and systems integration, and Application Management Service (AMS) for product, application and system maintenance. SaaS is engaged in the design, development and implementation of Web sites for clients, through which they build their online businesses. more »

Share Price (AIM)
2.65p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
1.1
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a

Intermediate Capital Group plc (ICG) is a United Kingdom-based investment firm. The Firm provides mezzanine finance, leveraged credit and minority equity. ICG provides mezzanine and equity financing to private equity buyout investors, management-led sponsor-less transactions and companies in need of development financing or debt restructuring solutions. The Firm has approximately Euro 14.9 billion of assets under management. The Firm, through its subsidiary, invests within a range of British Pounds 5 million and British Pounds 50 million in commercial real estate assets with value ranging from British Pounds 20 million to British Pounds 200 million. It manages approximately 18 credit funds comprising approximately Euro 5.7 billion. It invests in various sectors, including financial services, manufacturing, building materials, automobile, insurance, and shipping and transport services. It manages mezzanine and minority equity funds with approximately Euro 3.7 billion under management. more »

Share Price (Full)
538p
Change
0.7%
Mkt Cap (£m)
2,033
P/E (fwd)
14.4
Yield (fwd)
4.4



  Is Thomas Cook fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


What's your view on this article? Log In to Comment Now

You can track all @StockoChat comments via Twitter


About Mark Carter

Mark Carter

I am a private investor living in Scotland. I am a computer programmer by trade.

Follow



Stock Picking Tutorial Centre



Stock Picking Simplified

Stockopedia takes your stock picking to the next level with cutting edge Stock Reports & Screening tools.


Get started
or Take a Tour to find out more.
Let’s get you setup so you get the most out of our service
Done, Let's add some stocks
Brilliant - You've created a folio! Now let's add some stocks to it.

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
Save and show me my analysis
Foliobuilder