LON:CAB | "Nope"...this Is No Joke....NOP Makes Me Money Already ;-)

26th Jun '10 by flyingbull

6 comments 2952 reads

A couple of years ago when I have time, I attended NOP's AGM. Decided not to invest as progress in their Dutch assets seemed slow. Have not kept much notice of NOP until the Dana deal on 14 June 2010. Dana's acquisitin cost of $12.16/boe 2P reserves looked interesting "if"applicable to NOP's asset of 42.7 mmboe net in The Netherlands. With an half year investment time frame in mind, bought some NOP a few days later thinking it was a good punt for some fun at around 95p. One of the logics is that it might do a Dragon Oil with share price increasing as production volume increases. If they can focus their energy in The Netherlands and Italy and ramp up their production with the additional fund from disposal or new money, the share price may have reached a trough already for this year, judging by yesterday's jump. It's probably one of those stocks that one should not track too closely. Now I better get back to my closet. :-)
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djpreston

27th Jun '10

Hi fb

Have always said the assets look reasonable but will never invest whilst DM is there.

I do worry (not just nop but others) about offshore work projects in Italian waters. I've been hearing jungle drums that state authorities (not federal) are shutting offshore down till after macondo is resolved - any offshore work. I'd imagine that this will opuit anyone's Italian plays back by quite some time.

marben100

Must admit, djp... I am coming to the conclusion you are right (which was my intial thought on NOP - but I was influenced by a certain highly knowledgeable Fool - my fault for not sticking to my "gut" on this occasion). Am now regretting having invested and reduced my position significantly on Friday, selling into the bounce.

I am appalled at the way NOP's share price was "walked down" in the early part of June, a placing made at a 30% discount to the (already depressed) start of June price, immediately followed by a sharp bounce back. At least the bounce gave me the opportunity to substantially reduce my holding at around a B/E price.

Perhaps I should ask the FSA to investigate this highly suspicious price action?

Mark

kinkell

It seems most unlikely to me that the management is in any way responsible for the SP decline. Are you suggesting otherwise?

FR

chessfou

Who can say who it was, but someone walked the price down 30p with steady sales of 10k shares, then came the RNS, now the price has been walked back up with steady purchases of 10k shares. Of course, it may all be pure coincidence.

I have no idea who was responsible - but it seems like an extraordinary coincidence if the price action were unconnected to the placing and trades were not conducted with any inside knowledge.

flyingbull

Hi DJ, With my optimistic hat on, the Macondo well problem will be resolved sooner or later; the engineers will find a solution to reduce future drilling risk. By then, it might be too late to jump on board the NOP train. My spreadbet play on NOP is relatively small and therefore I can afford to take a calculated risk without losing too much sleep over it. The reserves base in The Netherlands should provide more than adequate share price support at ninety something pence. Everything else seem to be bonus anyway. As for DM, I guess he'd want to see a much higher share price as well, now that he has transferred a substantial part of his portfolio to his wife. No doubt Mrs DM will now be more keen to push him to do better! :-) fb

"Nope"...this is no joke....NOP makes me money already ;-)

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Flyingbull

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