Small Cap Report (30 Jan) - ZZZ, TRCS, HRN, GBG, SPE, RNWH

Wednesday, Jan 30 2013 by
15

Regular readers of my Blog might recall that I did a write up on Snoozebox Holdings (LON:ZZZ) last summer. The concept intrigued me (they convert standard shipping containers into comfortable temporary hotels, or staff accommodation), although the valuation became pretty stretched, and I sold my small personal shareholding later last year.

I'm thinking about buying back in, after a decent trading statement today. Results for calendar 2012 are expected to be announced in early April, with revenues ahead of, and profit in line with expectations.

So what are expectations? The only forecasts I can find suggest a small loss for 2012, but a £2m profit for 2013 (which translates into 3p EPS for 2013). So the share price of 69p looks very warm, on a PER of 23 times 2013 anticipated EPS, but the market looks ahead and prices in growth, so good growth companies are rarely cheap.

There is encouraging contract news in the trading statement today, which makes it clear that the concept is taking off, so it's really just a roll-out now. The temporary nature of most installations is a bit of a worry, so there might yet be bumps in the road in future, if e.g. they have a period of under-utilisation of the units. The longer-term installations are what really matter, as that generates consistent cashflow, without the costs of repeatedly erecting & dismantling a Snoozebox mobile hotel. Thorpe Park is a good example of where it's working, plus numerous other sites, such as Silverstone.

So it's a great concept, that seems to be working. Roll-out potential could be huge (especially if they achieve global growth), but the valuation does concern me, as a fair bit of growth is already factored in.

 

Tracsis (LON:TRCS) is a very interesting little company. I was one of around 85 investors who met the CEO, John McArthur at a recent investor forum arranged by Equity Development - clicking on this link takes you to the page on their website where the presentation slides from the companies at the meeting can be viewed - the other two companies presenting were Regenersis and VP Group.

Tracsis specialise in scheduling software which pretty much the whole UK rail industry uses to plan which trains & crews go where, making significant cost savings by better utilising their resources. TRCS also supplies hardware which monitors the performance of critical components such as points, overhead wires, etc, and is able to accurately predict when repairs are needed before the component fails, with obvious safety, reliability & efficiency benefits.

I was impressed with the CEO, but find the valuation of the company pretty aggressive at around 4 times sales. Although bear in mind that about one fifth of the market cap is net cash, which provides some comfort. It's also impressive the way the cash has built up, without burning a hole in their pockets. As he quipped at the meeting, with a Scottish CEO and a Finance Director from Yorkshire, they don't over-pay for their acquisitions! Bulls might see it as similar to Judges Scientific, in that it uses cashflow from existing businesses to buy cheap acquisitions, with shrewd management selecting the right acquisition targets, at the right price.

The trading update from Tracsis today is solid. It's perhaps stretching it a bit when they describe sales as "buoyant", at only "in excess of £4m". Both adjusted EBITDA and profit before tax are ahead of last year, and in line with expectations. Shareholders have become used to TRCS exceeding expectations in the past, so I'm not sure whether today's statement is strong enough to take the shares any higher for the moment? A £40m market cap doesn't leave any scope for uncertainty. Although we are in a bull market, so who knows?

Tracsis indicate that they intend announcing an interim dividend in due course, and the acquisition pipeline sounds interesting. Overall, I like the company, but don't feel I can stretch to paying this valuation of 165p, as nagging doubts about the sustainability of profit always creep into my mind with Tracsis. They had a stellar year last year, but there's no guarantee that will continue.

 

Toy train company Hornby (LON:HRN) warned on profits in September last year, although it's interesting to note that after 2 months trading sideways, the shares have been in an up-trend since. I've noticed this pattern with a number of shares lately, so it's starting to raise the prospect of selectively buying after profits warnings. Whereas in the past few years, profits warnings tended to be followed by repeated further waves downwards. This seems another sign of a more optimistic market, which is why I try to observe such trends, and adjust my investing strategy accordingly. It's getting easier to hit the buy button in these more forgiving markets.

Their problems seem to have stemmed from their failure to properly manage the supply chain, and over-reliance on one Chinese supplier who messed up production. Today's Interim Management Statement (IMS) looks reassuring, with the key points being that underlying profits for year-ending 31 March 2013 are in line with market expectations, and that net debt has come down sharply to £3.0m at 31 December 2012.

Demand sounds subdued still, and given that I cannot find any market forecasts for the current year, it's not possible for me to value the company sensibly on current trading. Forecasts for 2013/14 are for 3.5p EPS, so a share price of 79p doesn't look cheap, a PER of almost 23. So the market is clearly pricing in further recovery beyond that, and an EPS figure of around 8p was where the company was performing prior to its supply chain issues. Even that is a PER of 10, which seems fully valued to me, so recovery is already priced in, therefore Hornby shares don't interest me.

 

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A brief trading update from GB (LON:GBG) confirms that results for year-ending 31 March 2013 should be in line with market expectations. 4.4p EPS is the market consensus, so at 89p a share that puts it on a hefty PER of just over 20 times. For my purposes the shares seem fully valued, hence are of no interest to me. They do have net cash too, of £5.8m which compares with a market cap of just under £100m, so a nice buffer, but not enough to be material to the valuation.

 

Thinking about the markets overall, we've had a tremendous start to the year, and some investors I talk to are getting nervous, thinking a correction must come at some point. I agree, and believe it's essential not to overpay for anything - just because the shares keep going up, doesn't mean they are good value! Markets can & do get valuations wrong, often for extended timescales. Those of us who remember the technology boom & bust in the late 90's and early Noughties, just laugh when anyone mentions the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Investing fashions and a herd instinct actually mean that markets can wildly mis-price shares, which provides opportunities for patient value investors, especially in smaller caps where anomalies are more prevalent.

There are a lot of market participants using momentum investing strategies, and I think that's dangerous because it tends to take share prices above (sometimes way above) a sensible valuation, which then increases the risk of a sharp correction. In my opinion it is usually sensible to top-slice shares which have gone up a lot, to lock in some profits, and free up cash to buy on the dips, and of course to buy things which have not yet moved up.

 

Software company Sopheon (LON:SPE) might be worth a look. Their trading update today sounds positive, with revenues for calendar 2012 set to exceed market expectations of £12m (up from £10.3m in 2011), and EBITDA also ahead of £1.6m expectations. However, be careful of software companies quoting EBITDA, as they have a tendency to capitalise development costs, and therefore EBITDA gives an inflated impression of their performance (since development costs are just a normal part of their ongoing business). So that would be the first thing I'd check in their accounts when they are announced on 21 March.

 

I've generally been sceptical about Renew Holdings (LON:RNWH) in the past, but am warming to this share. Q1 trading (they have a 30 September year end) is described as "satisfactory" in their AGM Statement this morning. The Group order book is "strong" at £340m (up from £289m at the same time last year). Net debt has reduced to £4.0m (down from £6.75m). Pretty good stuff.

It's a very low margin business though, being a principal contractor in construction & infrastructure projects. So a sector that is susceptible to contracts going wrong, and there being no fat in the price to absorb the shock, which is why I try to avoid this sector. That said, Renew appear to manage the risks well, and have consistently paid a 3p p.a. dividend throughout the last 5 year downturn, which is impressive.

The shares look good value to me on a forecast PER of 6.9 times this year's earnings, and it's always easier to invest when you have a bang up-to-date positive trading statement, as we do today.

 

OK, that's it for today. See you at the same time, every weekday. I usually try to publish these reports by about 10am, but always before noon in the worst case scenario.

Regards, Paul.

(of the shares mentioned today, Paul does not hold any short or long positions in any of them)


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Snoozebox Holdings plc (Snoozebox) provides portable hotels and temporary accommodation. Snoozebox’s products are focused primarily at outdoor events and temporary staff commodation. The Company focuses to provide on-site accommodation. Snoozebox focuses to provide two types of accommodation: the Events product is hotel accommodation and the Contrax product is accommodation. As of May 1, 2012, the Company had 40 rooms in stock and ready for deployment. A Snoozebox hotel provides reception services, daily housekeeping and a 24 hour duty manager. For the Snoozebox Events product, it has identified over 150 annual events in the United Kingdom outdoor leisure market, which include sporting events, music festivals, county shows, cultural events and commercial events. The Company provides a marquee or similar facility for its guests where food and beverage is available. Provision of catering services will generally be outsourced. more »

Share Price (AIM)
8.69p
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
18.0

Tracsis Plc is a United Kingdom-based company. The principal activity of the Company is the provision of resource optimization software and consultancy services, which assist with automating and optimizing the process of labor scheduling for passenger rail and bus services in the transport industry. It has contracts with operators within the rail and bus industries. The Company has developed a range of products that assist in the development of optimized crew schedules for all types of on-board labor, primarily automated resource scheduling software for worldwide transport markets. Its subsidiaries include R.W.A. Rail Limited and Peeping Limited, which are engaged in Rail industry consultancy and ancillary services, and Safety Information Systems Limited, which is engaged in software and consultancy. In April 2013, Tracsis PLC acquired the entire share capital of Sky High PLC. In May 2014, Tracsis PLC acquired Datasys Integration Ltd, a holding company of Datasys Limited. more »

Share Price (AIM)
341.83p
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
20.5
Yield (fwd)
0.3
Mkt Cap (£m)
89.3

Hornby PLC is engaged in the development, production and supply of hobby and toy products. The Company distributes its products through a network of specialist and multiple retailers throughout the United Kingdom and overseas. The Company markets its products under a number of brands, such as Hornby, Scalextric, Electrotren, Lima, Jouef, Rivarossi, Arnold, Airfix, Humbrol and Corgi. The Company’s subsidiaries include Hornby Hobbies Limited in the United Kingdom with a branch in Hong Kong, Hornby America Inc. in the United States, Hornby Espana S.A. in Spain, Hornby Italia s.r.l. in Italy, Hornby France S.A.S. in France and Hornby Deutschland GmbH in Germany. more »

Share Price (Full)
78.75p
Change
3.5  4.7%
P/E (fwd)
21.9
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
29.5



  Is Snoozebox Holdings fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


6 Comments on this Article show/hide all

Matthuntmba 30th Jan '13 1 of 6
1

Thanks for writing these, I check them out every day. Can I just ask a question about top-slicing? Do you have any rules, i.e once you hit a percentage gain sell some? Or do you just judge each case on its own merit? I am always afraid of cutting my winners.

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Paul Scott 30th Jan '13 2 of 6
1

In reply to Matthuntmba, post #1

Hi,

Personally I look at each case individually. If a share has done a particularly rapid move up, then I feel it's usually sensible to lock in some gains, by maybe selling 10-20% (as you can always buy them back).

But it depends on the valuation of the share itself. If it still looks decent value, then I run the gains.
Things that are hitting a PER of 20 about now seem like ideal candidates to lock in some gains.
A market correction could easily take 20% off the price of highly rated stuff, and would then provide a buying opportunity.

It's always tricky to decide when to sell, but I feel top-slicing is a nice strategy as it frees up cash for other things, and you feel satisfied whatever happens to the share price afterwards - if it goes down then you've locked in profit at a higher price. If it keeps going up, then you still benefit from most of the upside.

Cheers, Paul.

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carmensfella 30th Jan '13 3 of 6
7

Paul,

The blog just gets better and better..

I do really think you should warm to Renew ! The directors presented at Mello about six months ago and were impressively going about re-engineering the business which is actually a pun ! They are vastly increasing the engineering projects and moving away from standard construction and therefore improving margins. The order book is growing too....increasing revenues and margins are a nice concoction and generally make for healthy growth in profits so I think there is lots of scope for under promise/over deliver here.

RNWH is now my 9th largest holding and I think it could move up the order. Here is the latest WH Ireland broker update this morning
http://www.directorstalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/RenewHoldings30113.pdf

David

| Link | Share | 1 reply
Paul Scott 30th Jan '13 4 of 6
1

In reply to carmensfella, post #3

Hi Dave,

Thanks for your comments & the broker note.
I thought you'd mentioned Renew to me before, and I can see why you like it now.

I'm fully invested on other things right now, but if there was any spare dosh around, I'd be picking up some at 92p. By my calcs, a price of 120-130p looks justified, providing there are no mishaps. Plus reasonable divi income whilst you wait.

Cheers, Paul.

| Link | Share
ericb 30th Jan '13 5 of 6
2

Hi Paul great to see the blog has elevated to stocko !

| Link | Share
Death by Donut 31st Jan '13 6 of 6

Wonder if ZZZ have a spare 8 x 10 container knocking about , could do with it on the site I'm currently working on. :0)
Like the new site Paul.

Cheers

DbD :0)

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About Paul Scott

Paul Scott

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Paul trained as an accountant, then spent 8 years as FD for a ladieswear retail chain.He became a professional small caps investor in 2002 to date.Paul writes a small caps report for Stockopedia.com on weekday mornings. He joined Fundamental Asset Management Ltd as a research associate in 2014, as part of their Small Cap Value Portfolio team. more »



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