Small Cap Report (6 Feb) - QED, CAP, LOQ, ECK, RHL, VNET, KBC

Wednesday, Feb 06 2013 by
18

Quintain Estates And Development (LON:QED) is a property developer with two key projects in London (Greenwich Peninsula and Wembley), plus student accommodation, and property fund management divisions. I've followed the company fairly closely in recent years, and have visited them for investor presentations, etc.

In the end I grew disillusioned with the company, since there is no dividend, and any revaluation gains seem to be swallowed up in declines elsewhere in their portfolio, hence NAV has actually been falling. Therefore no return whatsoever for shareholders, but plush Mayfair offices and nice salaries for the staff. So my conclusion was that this seems to be a company that operates for the benefit of its staff and Directors, rather than its shareholders - i.e. what development gains they have generated, are dissipated by hefty administration costs - something that's likely to continue, given the very long-term (20 years) scale of their London projects.

Quintain's Q3 IMS issued today doesn't contain any new information that is likely to alter the share price, in my opinion. This is a share that I tend to dip in & out of, as it moves in fairly predictable waves. It did look poised for another move up recently, but it has stalled, so I sold out at 62p a few days ago, as there seem better value opportunities elsewhere. Maybe I'm being too cynical, but it's difficult to see a short term catalyst for a higher share price at QED.

 

I generally try to avoid blue sky shares (or "story stocks"), as it's really just gambling, and the vast majority fail commercially. However, I've also found that finding a convincing-sounding blue sky share early on, or when the market cap is on the floor after initial disappointments, can prove rewarding. The trick is to not get too caught up in the hype, and to top-slice the profits along the way.

One such share which somebody recommended to me a while ago, and which I quite liked the look of, but then forgot about, was Clean Air Power (LON:CAP). They have an interesting technology (with Patents & pending) which allows diesel trucks to run on natural gas. Moreover, it's not just an idea, it's a working product which is out there for sale, through a European truck maker.

Their trading update this morning sounds promising, with full year 2012 results expected to be in line with expectations, which seems to be for a loss of £1.6m. They also say that 2013 has started well. They are forecast to make a small profit for 2013, so it's not really blue sky, but rather early stage commercial reality in my view.

Given the potential market opportunity in the USA especially (where cheap natural gas is becoming a highly significant factor), this share could get interesting. The market cap is currently around £12m, but it's proving very difficult to deal in, with a ludicrous 10% bid/offer spread, and problems dealing in anything more than tiny size. In the interests of full disclosure, I have bought a few this morning at 8.25p.

Micro caps are obviously much higher risk than proper shares, so this one comes with a huge wealth warning, so please just treat this idea as a punt, and do your own research as usual.

 

Major multi-bagger Lo-Q (LON:LOQ) issues news of another contract win, for its virtual queuing wristband for waterparks, this time for the largest such park in Pennsylvania. My view remains that the good news is now already in the price, but well done to holders who've been proved very right on this share.

 

Another company I like, but which also looks fully priced, is Eckoh (LON:ECK), which announces a contract win with a major high street retailer. Interestingly, this allows them to take card payments over the phone, without the operator seeing or hearing the card details, thus eliminating fraud perpetrated by call centre staff. Sounds a good idea. At 18-19 times this year & next year's forecast EPS, the rating here is far too rich for me.

I can't see the point in chasing things on very high (i.e. high teens or above) PERs, because the good news is already factored into the price, and yet the slightest disappointment will trigger a sharp fall in price. Therefore, unless you are very confident about the company's future performance, risk/reward is all wrong, with the late stage investor taking on a lot of risk, for little reward. Highly rated shares also usually have a poor dividend yield, so don't interest me.

 

Engineering company Redhall (LON:RHL) puts out an AGM trading statement which doesn't contain anything that sparks my interest. They state that this year will be H2 weighted, which can often be a precursor to a profits warning, so I tend to steer clear of that type of situation. Much better to pay a little more for a strong recent trading update, in my opinion.

 

Overall, I'm sensing a much greater appetite for risk in the small cap space at the moment. A lot of my preferred type of value situations are just languishing on low valuations. So I'm trying to position myself more towards reasonably-priced growth situations. My current favourites in that space are Vianet (LON:VNET) (which also has a 5% dividend yield), and KBC Advanced Technologies (LON:KBC) (very strong recent trading statements, and a forward PER of only 8), both of which I have high hopes for on a 12-month view. But as always, there are no guarantees, as what we're really doing is educated guesswork, nobody really knows for sure how companies will trade in the future.

See you at the same time tomorrow!

Regards, Paul.

(of the shares mentioned today, Paul has long positions in: CAP, VNET, and KBC. Paul currently has no short positions)


Get Paul Scott's Small Cap Value Report in your email inbox weekdays at 11am!

Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


Do you like this Post?
Yes
No
18 thumbs up
0 thumbs down
Share this post with friends



Quintain Estates and Development PLC is a United Kingdom-based company that develops and invests in London property. The Company has four operating segments: Wembley, which consists of investment and development assets at Wembley Park; London Portfolio, which consists of investment assets in London and the WELPUT asset management services; Quercus, which includes asset management of and share of results due to investment in the Quercus Healthcare Fund, and Non-core, which consists of other property investments and the Quantum joint venture. The Company's subsidiaries include English and Overseas Properties Plc, HHW Hotel 2 Limited, HHW Hotel 4 Limited, Letterbag Limited, Listed Offices Limited and Permitobtain Limited, among others. more »

Share Price (Full)
129.5p
Change
-0.2%
Mkt Cap (£m)
683
P/E (fwd)
63.6
Yield (fwd)
n/a

Clean Air Power Limited designs, develops and delivers Dual-Fuel and second-generation MicroPilot engine systems. The Company designs, develops and delivers compression-ignited natural gas engines for heavy duty transport applications and manufactures hydraulic valves, injectors and filters for natural gas engines sold to truck manufacturers around the world. Its business segments are the Dual-Fuel segment, which sells, installs and services compression-ignited natural gas engine systems, and the Components segment, which designs and delivers hydraulic valves and components for natural gas engines. The Company operates through three business units out of facilities in Leyland, United Kingdom and Poway, California: engineering services, natural gas systems and specialist components. It assembles, distributes and installs two types of Dual-Fuel engine system: Non-interfaced Dual-Fuel Systems and Interfaced Dual-Fuel Systems. more »

Share Price (AIM)
0.62p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
1.6
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a

accesso Technology Group, plc is a United Kingdom-based company engaged in the development and application of ticketing, mobile and e-commerce technologies and virtual queuing solutions for the attractions and leisure industry. The Company's solutions include accesso LoQueue, accesso Passport and accesso Siriusware. accesso LoQueue is a queuing solution that includes Qsmart, which enables purchasing the services and managing reservations through smartphone; Qbot, a handheld queuing device that allows guests to reserve their rides, and Qband, a queuing solution designed for water parks. accesso Passport is a ticketing solution that includes OnSite, an OnSite ticketing solution; OnLine, an online ticketing solution, and OnTheGo, a mobile ticketing solution. accesso Siriusware offers ticketing and admission solutions. accesso Siriusware offers modules, such as OnSite Ticketing, OnLine eCommerce, Point-of-Sale and Guest Management. more »

Share Price (AIM)
808p
Change
 
Mkt Cap (£m)
177.2
P/E (fwd)
24.9
Yield (fwd)
n/a



  Is Quintain Estates And Development fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


1 Comment on this Article show/hide all

brigandchief 6th Feb '13 1 of 1
1

QED sold end of Jan at 62.85p, promises, promises, promises, and no actrion!!
Cheeers

| Link | Share

What's your view on this article? Log In to Comment Now

You can track all @StockoChat comments via Twitter


About Paul Scott

Paul Scott

Paul trained as an accountant, then spent 8 years as FD for a ladieswear retail chain.He became a professional small caps investor in 2002 to date.Paul writes a small caps report for Stockopedia.com on weekday mornings. He joined Fundamental Asset Management Ltd as a research associate in 2014, as part of their Small Cap Value Portfolio team. more »

Follow



Stock Picking Tutorial Centre



Stock Picking Simplified

Stockopedia takes your stock picking to the next level with cutting edge Stock Reports & Screening tools.


Get started
or Take a Tour to find out more.
Let’s get you setup so you get the most out of our service
Done, Let's add some stocks
Brilliant - You've created a folio! Now let's add some stocks to it.

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
Save and show me my analysis
Foliobuilder