Small Cap Value Report (20 Apr 2016) - TIDE, BWNG, SVCA

20th Apr '16 by Paul Scott

20 comments 12976 reads

Good morning!

ShareSoc Brighton

I am delighted to see that ShareSoc has decided to revive the Brighton investor evenings, which myself and a friend started in 2014. It's so much work to organise events such as this, that we didn't have time to organise any in 2015.

So I'm thrilled to see that ShareSoc has taken up the mantle, and has organised an investor evening (with optional meal) for 10 May 2016. The idea is to make this a regular monthly event, which would be fantastic, as the previous ones in 2014 were so enjoyable. The same venue, 2 mins from Brighton station, is being used - so very easy to get to, even from London.

The problem is that people only register at the last minute, by which time the organisers are tearing their hair out, because we had to give a minimum attendance guarantee to the restaurant. So far, registrations for the Brighton event in May 2016 are so low that the event just won't go ahead unless more people register now.

Therefore, in order to get this event off the ground in the early stages, please can I urge everyone who would like to see this become a regular event, please support the first one by booking now. Here is the link. The first event is key, because if it flops, then there won't be any future ones. Therefore, even if you're not interested in the company presenting, a show of support is vitally needed to get things off the ground.

I will be going to all the future ones, but unfortunately am away on holiday on 10 May, so can't personally make the first one. These events are such a good way to network with fellow investors, as everyone has a common interest. Networking with other like-minded investors has definitely improved my knowledge & performance over the years. Plus of course it's great fun to knock back a few pints of Peroni, and have a good laugh & exchange anecdotes with other investors.

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Ramridge

20th Apr '16

Re. Crimson Tide (LON:TIDE) As you said, this company is way overvalued. As a micro cap, its worth to a potential buyer might be around 5xEBITDA , and certainly not more than 10.
Today's results show a EBITDA of 431K, and a market cap of £15m. That gives a multiple of 35. No amount of forecast revenue or earnings growth would justify this.

simonty

Is there a list anywhere of those companies that have not yet reported December year ends ? Syqic ( June) and Westminster Group WSG (May) are two tiny companies that take months to produce figures, when neither actually has any complicated revenue to report.

dscollard

General Retail sector has been one of the worst performers year to date: sector is down 7.5% sine 1 Jan 2016: performing a bit like the banks. By contrast Food and Drug Retail is up 15% ytd while Mining is up 43% . I track the sectoral rotations to try and give insights on business cycle. It hasn't been text book...

drvodkaquickstep

Paul

I think its great that ShareSoc have taken up the baton re: Brighton investor evenings. Personally I think the choice of Avation Avation (LON:AVAP) may be the reason for the lack of appetite as most of us have met Richard (their FD) on at least one occasion. Otherwise I fully agree with your sentiment and plan to attend as a show of support. If it hasn't happened already it would be good for ShareSoc to request ideas for future companies to present as i am sure that will spark some ideas. I have attended at least 2 of the last events and as you say they are great for networking.

Paul Scott

Hi DrVodka,

Indeed, although Richard from Avation (LON:AVAP) did present in Brighton in 2014, so an update 2 years later would be quite useful (I hold AVAP). Although point taken that Richard will turn up for the opening of an envelope, so any investor who has been to any investor show, will already know him!

Great news that you're planning on attending the Brighton events. I'm so looking forward to having a monthly event that's only 2 miles away from my home, so I'll be a regular fixture from June onwards. Hence why I'm really hoping lots of people come along to the first one, regardless of whether they're interested in AVAP, as it's key to get some critical mass going, and build a good social group. Last time we had people travel down from far & wide, with quite a few people catching the fast trains down from London.

Regards, Paul.

imranawan

Out of interest where are you getting your sector comparison data from?

Best wishes,
Imran.

Re. N Brown (LON:BWNG) I think the following statement also spooked the market this morning, contributing to the overall fall.
"
Our new IT platform will be implemented, bringing necessary and significant improvements to all areas of our business. However experience suggests that a programme of this scale will bring some unexpected bumps in the road.
"

Thanks Ramridge,

I hadn't spotted the comments about IT implementation at N Brown.

They are wise to expect problems. When we introduced a new EPoS system at Pilot in the 1990s, it was a total balls-up, and resulted in us having little to no control over stock for about 3 months - with resulting heavy losses. Mind you, we didn't have any expertise in-house on IT, or project management, and the CEO chose a totally lousy supplier with a lousy system (Prologic). It was one of the key reasons why the business failed 3 years after I left.

I'm sure N Brown will manage better, but changing IT is very risky at retailers. You're supposed to run 2 systems in parallel for a while, but that's very tricky.

Regards, Paul.

zho

Hi Paul,

Many thanks for your commentary.

I was just about to add N Brown’s Chairman’s comment about potential bumps in the road concerning IT, and see that Ramridge has already done so. To me, this read very much as preparing the ground for a profit warning further out.

andrea34

I bought SVCA over a decade ago before they were even SVCA, when I knew EVEN less about stocks & shares than I do now and they were being ramped by some penny broker; I think when I bought them they were one of these pie-in't-sky investment vehicles. As a result I have a tiny holding that is not even worth the fee to deal in them. :-/ On the surface of it they seem to be doing reasonably well now though.

carmensfella

ShareSoc wants the Brighton event to go really well and to encourage investors to network so I am happy to arrange for another speaker to share the bill with Avation if that will improve marketability and increase numbers to guarantee it can take place.

Who would you like to see giving a 20 - 30 minute talk ?

David

I use ShareScope (the Pro version) which I have heavily customised over the past 6 years . Hugely powerful though a bit tricky to learn and use. https://www.sharescope.co.uk/index.jsp

Radicalgreens

Great shout on Brighton. Am already committed for the first one but will make the next one

ridavies

Unfortunately live in Isle of Man but good that Share Soc is broadening its meeting location spread. Unfortunately as vodka+ says, Avation is becoming something of a yawn. I first heard them at Mello in Derby must be nearly 2 years ago; bought into the story along with other aviation companies but they have gone nowhere. Some of their lack of progress may have been tied into Flybe's lack of success - a major customer for them - but they are going nowhere, or seem to be. I am out of them now and there is clearly no appetite among the institutions which I understood from a post presentation talk with Richard at Mello was one of his objectives in his grand tour of Europe. So Share Soc - try to get some more interesting companies please - I ask on behalf of all Share Soc members since it is unlikely I can get to many meetings.

ridavies,

You do realise that investor events like Mello, ShareSoc, etc, are organised by volunteers, and there is a huge amount of work involved in setting them up, and often taking a personal risk by giving a guarantee on minimum numbers to the venue?

So comments like yours - i.e. get more interesting companies in, or I won't bother coming, is extremely unhelpful, not to mention totally demotivating for the organisers!

I'm jolly glad it's ShareSoc who are organising the Brighton meetings, and not me, as I found it a pretty thankless task - often due to unhelpful & thoughtless feedback.

Paul.

Brackendale

Someone from Stanley Gibbons might provide an interesting evening!

Btw my last comment isn't to suggest sharesoc evenings are not usually interesting, I would recommend to anyone who has not been. Even if you are not interested in the companies, its v interesting to hear the questions - an insight into how good investors think about stocks... On top of which talking to other investors...

Stanley Gibbons is actually a very good shout after all their recent news and they need to explain themselves to investors of which I am sure there are many in the Brighton area....probably a few stamp, memorabilia and coin collectors too !

21st Apr '16

Im sorry you took it that way, Paul. Perhaps a little thoughtless before your reply? I am a strong supporter of and full member of Share Society even though the distance means that I cannot make the meetings. I do understand that these events are organised by volunteers and I have to say that when I made the effort to go to the event organised by carmensfella in Derby, it was the event of the year as far as I was concerned. I was very impressed with the quality of the speakers and it influenced some of my subsequent investing. My comment was intended to encourage the organisers to try to get another or other companies to come along to what could be the first of many in the area, and I wish them well. Carmensfella's comment is the one which I was hoping would be the response and not the off the cuff response you gave......but you get through an immense amount of material, which is 99% of the time to our great benefit as subscribers to Stockopedia so we take the rough with the smooth! Again, I am a great fan. Best wishes to carmensfella and others who do organise these events. You and he have made hopefully not only yourselves wealthier but also have helped us all with our investment progress over the years. Best regards.

garkum01

24th Apr '16

Hi Carmensfella,
How about getting one of these LTIP-enthiusiasts in to talk about their company and pin them down about
LTIP-rationale? Hawkins from vislink would be a good candidate.

Small Cap Value Report (20 Apr 2016) - TIDE, BWNG, SVCA

ShareSoc Brighton

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Paul Scott

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