So, where to go post Dana?

Sunday, Aug 22 2010 by
49
So where to go post Dana

Just thought I'd start off a general thread for discussion of possible alternatives for those who will receive a chunk of cash (from whoever and at whatever price) following the demise of Dana Petroleum Plc (LON:DNX).

I'd start off by arguing that there aren't many Dana lookalikes in the UK. That is reasonably large and liquid stocks with a good combination of strong cashflows, reserves, development opportunities and exploration. There's dozens of high octane exploration plays on AIM but not many in the Dana mould. I wouldn't imagine that many will be looking to roll 0ver into 100% explo stories but may look to put a bit into them. 

Secondly I'd argue that more of the Dana look alikes are to be found overseas. Now its harder to research these but it can be done quite easily, especially if there are people willing to share notes...

May I suggest that if people think of an idea or want to expand on one then they should start up a new thread or continue on with the "main" thread of an existing company.

So, without thinking too hard, here's a list of some of my initial thoughts:

In the UK (some may have dual listings):

1. Ithaca Energy Inc (LON:IAE) - very sound finances now after the c$1.70 funding and BoS facility and way down from recent peaks. Dual listed and slightly more liquid over in Canada.

Ithaca Energy Inc (LON:IAE) came pretty close to death till a very good restructuring deal with Dyas was put in place. Now set to push on with developments and generate v strong cashflows in 2/3 yrs (20k bopd+). Would probably make a good acqn for someone (knoc perhaps given dnx gives them a good N Sea presence now). Merger potential too?

Disc - we've now got a good chunk in IAE.

2. Bankers Petroleum (LON:BNK) nominally UK AIM listing but in reality bloody hard to trade over here, espec in size (+kay for say 1k or 2k but even then a big spread).

There's already a thread here on Bankers Petroleum (LON:BNK) so I won't go into it further here. Not really any explo, unless you count the potential upside from the Thermal project - results in next year. Should be sold in 12-18 months I'd say.

Disc - we already have a good chunk of BNK.

3. Circle Oil (LON:COP) - again, a thread here gives the investment proposition. Good and growing cashflow, more to come from Egypt and Morocco with explo in Oman and Tunisia (and Namibia if PetroHolland ever pay up). Following placing its very well funded.

Disc - another one of ours.

4. SOCO International (LON:SIA) - no need to reiterate this one but I suspect most will already have an exposure. Critical period for the company in coming few weeks either making us all very happy, or testing if our theories re core downside protection are right.

5. Cairn Energy Plc (LON:CNE) - not sure if this should be here now that the Vedanta deal has come along. More an explo story now I'd say.

6. Melrose Resources (LON:MRS) - not one that's ever excited me and I don't like the majority ownership situation. Seems to lack critical mass in terms of impact?

7. Northern Petroleum (LON:NOP) - too disappointing for my like with personality problems and now Italian drilling moratorium.

8. Premier Oil (LON:PMO) - probably the most Dana-esq in terms of production, market size, developments and portfolio of explo. Arguably too dnx like for me i.e. bitty.

I think I'll leave it there for now. Thumbs are killing me. Will try to add some overseas names over the next few days.


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Ithaca Energy Inc. is a North Sea oil and gas operator. The Company is focused on the appraisal and development of the United Kingdom undeveloped discoveries, the exploitation of its existing United Kingdom producing asset portfolio, and a Norwegian exploration and appraisal business. In August 2014, Ithaca Energy Inc acquired three UK producing oil field interests from Sumitomo Corporation. more »

Share Price (AIM)
130p
Change
1.0  0.8%
P/E (fwd)
5.6
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
425.1

Circle Oil PLC (Circle) is an oil and gas exploration company. The Company is engaged in the oil and gas exploration, development and production in North Africa and the Middle-East with oil and gas production in Egypt, gas production in Morocco and exploration assets in all areas of operation. The Company has its operations in Egypt, Morocco, Oman and Tunisia. The Company has two permits in the Rharb Basin, Morocco; the RasMarmour Permit in southern Tunisia; the Mahdia Permit offshore Tunisia; the Grombalia Permit in northern Tunisia and the Zeit Bay area of Egypt. In Oman present assets include the prospective Block 52 offshore, in addition to the onshore Block 49. more »

Share Price (AIM)
22.75p
Change
0.0  0.0%
P/E (fwd)
7.1
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
128.2

Bankers Petroleum Ltd. (Bankers) is engaged in the exploration for and oil in Albania. The Company generates all of the oil revenue from its operations in Albania, which is located northwest of Greece in South Eastern Europe. In Albania, Bankers operates and has the rights to develop the Patos-Marinza and Kucova oilfields pursuant to License Agreements with the Albanian National Agency for Natural Resources (AKBN) and Petroleum Agreements with Albpetrol Sh.A (Albpetrol), the state-owned oil and gas corporation. The Patos-Marinza oilfield is an onshore oilfield in continental Europe, holding approximately 5.1 billion barrels of original-oil-in-place (OOIP). The Company also has rights to exploration Block F (adjacent to the Patos-Marinza oilfield), an 185,000 acre oil and gas prone exploration field. The Company’s subsidiaries include Bankers Petroleum Albania Ltd. (BPAL), Bankers Petroleum International Limited (BPIL) and Sherwood International Petroleum Ltd (Sherwood). more »

Share Price (AIM)
322p
Change
2.0  0.6%
P/E (fwd)
12.7
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
835.3



  Is Ithaca Energy Inc fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


99 Comments on this Article show/hide all

Isaac 18th Sep '10 Reported for Disruptive Behaviour
11

JPGH

Do you ever question how Oil experts on this board missed stocks like GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE etc ?

I personally do. I tend to ask myself why they favor the likes of Soco/Dana/Aminex etc over the above stocks which have had a significant run on the drill bit. How did they manage to miss these?

The only conclusion I can come to is they have 'special' relationships with the Said companies that they can't get with the likes of GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE etc.

So it actually does'nt surprise me that some people don't know where to put their Dana money.

There is only two people that can stock pick very well to achieve a high degree of success without having some kind of a strong relationship. I'm not one of them though, WShak and DJPreston are my two champions....

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davjo 18th Sep '10 61 of 99
11

In reply to Isaac, post #60

Do you ever question how Oil experts on this board missed stocks like GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE etc ?

What on earth are you talking about Isaac? Who are these experts to which you refer? Are they the ones who backed oil stocks back in the dark days of $12 oil whilst you were having your nappy changed ?
;-)

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tournesol 19th Sep '10 62 of 99
36

In reply to Isaac, post #60

Isaac, you ask why people who have favoured Soco and Dana have missed GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE. You are making some quite unjustified assumptions here.

Speaking for myself, I've made very good money trading/investing in each of GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE. However I regarded those companies as less interesting for LTBH strategies than SIA and DNX.

1) I was in GKP early. I followed my usual practice of speaking with management directly. As events unfolded I came to the view that I simply did not trust management, I had no confidence in them and I didn;t like the political and security risks where they operate. And I was suspicious of the ETAMIC deal. I sold at a good profit when my nose started to twitch.

2) HOIL has eventually made money out of Uganda but it seems far from clear what they are going to do with it next. And I'm not 100% comfortable with a management run by ex-mercenaries. A good special situation trade but not a good LTBH. I sold at the recent peak when the Uganda deal was concluded.

I regarded both GKP and HOIL as high risk because they were/are exposed to situations whch, in my risk assessment days, I would have described as single-point-of-failure risk. ie All their eggs were/are in a single basket and a single event could have wiped them out. That made them unsuitable for substantial investment. OK for small punts perhaps but not substantial investments.

3) CNE delivered good returns for people who invested before the Rajasthan discoveries. Or for that matter those like me who bought in the market at 8 am on the morning of the first RNS which reported drilling success.(Thanks to a helpful Fool who reported the story carried in the Singapore Times a couple of hours before the RNS was issued in the UK!!!). But the SP plateaued and went sideways. I sold when that plateau became established and most of the value from Rajasthan had been captured. Incidentally I found that speaking with management worked well.

4) TLW was a more interesting case study. I did detailed research on TLW years ago and came to the conclusion that I didn't like their business model - too much focus on scale as opposed to quality - too many acquisitions - too many scrappy assets - too many staff - utterly byzantine organisation structure - operational management style very bureaucratic. etc etc . What happened was that they threw the dice and came up with a double six - Uganda and Ghana. I reckon there was as much good luck as good judgement and their success surprised even themselves. However, the good news has swamped my reservations, as happens when things come right. I do like Ghana very much but I remain much less sanguine about Uganda. I think that the political shenanigans which we see in U are capable of overturning the apple cart. And I remain to be convinced that an overland pipeline will prove secure and effective. I made a good return in the early days of G and U but took profits. The size of the company makes it inherently less able to deliver the sort of growth that the likes of Dana and Soco can/could. Put simply it is harder for a £5 billion company to discover enough oil to double in size than it is for a £1 billion co.

Soco and Dana are/were quite different from the above in my view. Firstly they were much less exposed to single-point-of -failure risk - it would be difficult to imagine a single event wiping them out. Secondly, their management teams/approach appealed to me. Third their size was just right. Big enough to get things done. Small enough that exploration/development could boost the SP substantially. In my opinion both companies were in the sweet spot in terms of risk/reward and that distinguished them from the four you mention. My convictions were sufficiently strong that I felt able to hold 60% of my portfolio in Dana for some years. When Soco entered my radar I rebalanced over along period to a 30-30 position. There is no way I would have contemplated such large positions in your four for the reasons cited above.

And that's the point isn't it? Because I felt comfortable investing 30% in each of Dana and Soco that wa's more useful to me than 5% in GKP or HOIL. And the long term return was much better than the shorter term returns from TLW and CNE.

Isaac - what was your point again?

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nigelpm 19th Sep '10 63 of 99
5

In reply to Isaac, post #60


Do you ever question how Oil experts on this board missed stocks like GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE etc ?

I personally do. I tend to ask myself why they favor the likes of Soco/Dana/Aminex etc over the above stocks which have had a significant run on the drill bit. How did they manage to miss these?


Rather than banging on about this what have you been contributing to the ether?

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Isaac 19th Sep '10 64 of 99
10

Tournesolf,

Good post, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I think all the points you made are logical and make a lot of sense. But why does'nt the market recognise this? It appears to me that the stocks I mentioned trade at a higher rating then Soco and Dana.

Do you think you would have made more money if you had chosen one of these GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE and did LTBH rather then Soco/Dana ?

No matter how logical/sensible our stock picks are, the market does'nt care. Maybe the trick is to work out what the market wants to take much higher rather then what we think should be trading at a higher price?

When you look down at the small E+P's that are currently valued at £2-400m i personally question their valuation and think to myself if there was a significant downturn in Oil prices these stocks would trade at a fraction of current market caps.

For me it is very clear the E+P sector is overheated, I think this can remain so for a few more years though. Therefore I think peple should tread more carefully, boom will turn to bust at somepoint, it never is different.

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JPGH 19th Sep '10 65 of 99
31

In reply to Isaac, post #60

JPGH
Do you ever question how Oil experts on this board missed stocks like GKP, HOIL, TLW, CNE etc ?


Isaac,
maybe it was as a result of late night boredom but I think you are being a tad antagonistic here, again, towards the "Experts on this board" (presumably you mean Stockopedia). Before Stockopedia there was plenty of discussion/analysis over on TMF on merits/ Pros/cons of these companies throughout their full genesis from tiddler to FTSE 100/250 status (yes, even CNE, if you care to go back in the TMF annals).

I dont question the "experts" much, I just read them and use their opinions/market observations/analysis as a guide only to help form my own rationale for buying/holding/adding/selling/top slicing a stock or to form opinion of general trend in the sector or general market. I used to arrogantly regard myself as an expert in the O&G sector on basis of my job as an engineer within "the Industry" but after some pretty significant losses in 2008 I realised it matters not a jot how well you can carry out a NAV/DCF models, how well you understand the implication of a drill test RNS or new corporate acquisition...etc I missed the most blatantly obvious sell signals of them all in late 2007/2008 because I was up my own sefl important arse thinking the Oil & Gas industry was immune to what appeared to me to be a regional US induced housing/bank lending crisis .....and I ignored the general warning signs until it was too late. Even then I was catching falling knives trying to call the bottom ...etc. Luckily I didn't panic too much and held tight my core and started adding/rebuilding positions late in 2008 and managed to recoup all 2008 losses during an eventful 2009. The experts here/there did same so it was a great comfort to know I was in good company.

So to answer your question no I dont question "the experts", I dont need to/want to. I often scroll quickly down through the posts of "the experts" muttering to myself "Jesus! not another Soco TGD post, AEX Wilcox chin stroking or DNX Hedge fund/CFD conspiracy theory post" but it is mainly as a result of my frustration with the limited time I have available (with work/family ...etc) to read all the BB posts here, ADVFN, TMF, iii that I need to get through in addition to links, RNSs and portfolio tracking/monitoring that I need to do to stay on top of things ..... but I have enormous respect for "the experts" and for most other posters who go to the trouble of putting together a decent thought provoking post (you do a few decent posts yourself at times amidst the other stuff). All expert advise, opinion will help me make money and on occasion I add back some value input of my own or give glimpses of my portfolio in case anyone is interested.

Maybe a bit less goading and more quality posting is what is called for here.

JPGH

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Isaac 19th Sep '10 Reported for Disruptive Behaviour
12

JPGH

I never take anything at face value. I always question and try to understand what is being said. I absolutely hate it when someone tells me something but can't explain their point.


Because it tells me they most likely don't know what they are talking about. Do you not hate it when someone tells you this is the way it is but don't ask me why?

Having worfked in the City for all of my career I can tell you there are lots of overpaid idiots who click buttons on a mouse but have'nt got a clue what is going on. They work on the basis of rules and processes.

I work on the basis of understanding, thinking for myself and I ask loads and loads of questions.

I realised it matters not a jot how well you can carry out a NAV/DCF models, how well you understand the implication of a drill test RNS or new corporate acquisition...etc

Yes I know this. That is why I think one needs to learn how to read the market and understand what the market is telling you. A value investor can buy a value stock and wait for a very long time whilst the stock is dead in the water. Or they can wait for the market to tell them when the stock is ready to go up and then Buy. Who do you think will make more money?

You can have two people with identical stocks, but with very different results in the end.

If it was simply a case of looking at numbers and doing DCF/NAV then loads of accountants would be seriously rich from Investing in shares. But they are not.....

I missed the most blatantly obvious sell signals of them all in late 2007/2008 because I was up my own sefl important arse thinking the Oil & Gas industry was immune to what appeared to me to be a regional US induced housing/bank lending crisis .....

Most people did on TMF. Because most people were happy to listen to 'experts' and invest in a group in the same stocks with similar positons rather then questioning and constanty researching the markets and thinking for themselves. There are no experts, they are only as good as their last trade.

The reality is if there is likely to be a crash then the best course of action to take is to sell up regardless of what material news Soco or any other stock is going to release. Because the truth is in a crash there will be loads and loads of cheap stocks to buy that Soco won't matter anymore............................

My strategy is pretty simple. Massively pile into Mid to Large cap stocks after a crash. Be patient. Be very very patient. Then when it is hard to find good value in large stocks rather then trickle your funds down to the more risky small caps, exit the market and wait for the next crash.....Then repeat this process...

 Ever since the begining of time every four years or so there have been decent corrections :

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nigelpm 19th Sep '10 67 of 99
5

In reply to Isaac, post #66

Just a couple of points. I'm not trying to snipe just commenting on the inaccuracies and contradiction which are turning this thread into a farce of the worst kind - please bring in the ignore poster Moderators!


Ever since the begining of time every four years or so there have been decent corrections :


The chart goes back to 1978!


There are no experts, they are only as good as their last trade.


Per post 60 (which has already been reported for disruptive behaviour):

I'm not one of them though, WShak and DJPreston are my two champions....


The reality is if there is likely to be a crash then the best course of action to take is to sell up regardless of what material news Soco or any other stock is going to release. Because the truth is in a crash there will be loads and loads of cheap stocks to buy that Soco won't matter anymore............................


Ah, the wonderful Hindsight.

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djpreston 19th Sep '10 68 of 99
29

Can we please stop the OT posts?

This is a thread relating to dicussing oprions for reinvestment of Dana proceeds. I can't prune the thread to remove OT posts from the handheld but I'll try it tomorrow during a break at the First Energy conf.

I'm not expressing any favouritism, I just want a pure and On Topic thread.

Thanks.

D

Fund Management: European Wealth
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repobear 20th Sep '10 69 of 99
4

In reply to djpreston, post #68

Darron,

What's all this about Sterling saying that Cladhan could be a Magnus oil field analogue? There seems to be a little excitement over the Encore board on ADVFN and the EO. share price has popped a bit, again. If Dana holders can get their money out it must just be worth the option of being able to get on Encore or Sterling should this be true.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_oilfield

I hope that's sufficiently on topic;-)

repobear

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repobear 20th Sep '10 70 of 99
1

In reply to repobear, post #69

http://jetslides.tv/webcasts/249

Slides 10 and 11 for anyone that might be interested.

repobear

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ohisay 20th Sep '10 71 of 99
6

I see Angelos has sold all his Dana and by virtue of Encore's recent rise it's now his largest holding as of end August.

http://www.junioroils.com/docs/201008_update.pdf

In terms of investment positioning, Junior Oils Trust has enjoyed multiple success in the last two
months. The takeover of Dana Petroleum appears to be nearing a conclusion and we have,
therefore, decided to liquidate the fund’s holding in order that we may re-invest the proceeds into
other opportunities.

Encore Oil grew into the fund’s biggest holding as it rose six times over our
original investment level. Caza Oil & Gas also rose to prominence with its recent discovery in
Texas. We believe that there is some further potential for rerating in our portfolio and we have
also introduced some new holdings at attractive valuation levels. It is the fundamental value of the
fund’s investments that can provide outperformance over the market and the sector as a whole.

Given its isable staus there must be worse ways to take a stake in otherwise non isable small/medium oil co's.

Confess I'm rather tempted (if for no other reason Encore's Cladhan update is as upbeat as we all hope.)


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ohisay 20th Sep '10 72 of 99
3

Can't resist posting this - especially the comment about GKP .

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23880142-moneysupermarket-enchants-as-140p-bid-talk-gains-strength.do

Gulf Keystone Petroleum rocketed 20.8p to 158.2p on talk that bosses are eyeing a move to the main market in London early next year. Analysts said that this move — which should see it enter the FTSE 250 — would help it to raise more cash. The oil explorer divided opinion with one analyst — convinced the gods of black gold are smiling on the group — saying: “Entry to the FTSE 250 would be great news,” while another said: “I wouldn't advise my granny to put her money in Gulf Keystone, certainly.”

The Falklands explorers were also in demand. Rockhopper Exploration jumped 49¼p to 469¼p as investors applauded news that its oil discovery off the coast of the remote British territory will be commercial. Evolution Securities raised its rating from “neutral” to “add”, and lifted its price target from 359p to 450p in response.

Argos Resources — which has a neighbouring prospect — was up 4p at 42.2p. “These oil stocks are proving very popular indeed,” said one dealer. “I've been busy with these all morning — probably half the trades I've done were in these stocks.”

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repobear 21st Sep '10 73 of 99
2

What did I say about opportunity cost on this thread?

They're have been some absolutely stunning runups in prices over the last few days as hot money from one bluesky, or success, story piles into the next.

However anyone interested in making a couple of quid, short and long term, could do worse than listen to the presentation made by SLG yesterday and try to work hrough the implications for Encore and Sterling. The link is a couple of posts back.

Some feedback from DJP, or other attendees, on that and other interesting prospects at the conference might stimulate some useful debate too.

repo

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djpreston 21st Sep '10 74 of 99
4

Give me a chance repo!! ;-)

The conference is still ongoing.

Imo one very interesting (and $5bn cap) opportunity worth looking at is Niko.

Fag break over. Back to it.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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muppetmonster 22nd Sep '10 75 of 99
4

You can listen to Niko's presentation at the Global Oil Conference here: http://jetslides.tv/webcasts/7

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EnglishDragon 22nd Sep '10 76 of 99
1

In reply to muppetmonster, post #75

How do I login?
Thanks.

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muppetmonster 23rd Sep '10 77 of 99
2

EnglishDragon

Try the password "password"

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ohisay 25th Sep '10 78 of 99
4

Sooner or later I guess there had to be a "serious story" about the recent stellar rise in oil stocks.Pity the obviously overvalued like DES and BOR are being conflated with the likes of Encore NPE and to a lesser extent.RKH

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b38f5b0-c805-11df-ae3a-00144feab49a.html

A number of big exploration successes, in a packed drilling calendar, have focused investor attention on the sector. The North Sea has enjoyed something of a renaissance in the wake of two big discoveries: Catcher and Cladhan, which analysts estimate could have recoverable reserves of 60m-100m and 70m-90m barrels of oil respectively. A discovery – called Sea Lion – has also been made off the coast of the Falkland Islands that analysts believe could contain recoverable reserves of about 240m barrels.

It is these discoveries that have propelled share prices higher. Encore, which has interests in both the Catcher and Cladhan prospects, has risen more than 600 per cent this year while Nautical Petroleum, which has a stake in Catcher, has climbed by a similar amount. Rockhopper Exploration, holder of the Sea Lion licence, has surged 700 per cent and is now valued at almost £1bn.

Investors seem increasingly to have been blinded by these few big successes.

Consider Desire Petroleum. Even though it has found no oil, the company is still valued at £500m and its shares are up 70 per cent. To justify that valuation Desire needs to find 150m barrels of oil at its other Falkland wells. Similarly, Borders & Southern, which is searching for oil in the deep waters to the south-east of the Falklands, is valued at nearly £400m. Yet it has still to even secure a drilling rig.


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doverbeach 25th Sep '10 79 of 99
7

Well I have recycled about a third of my Dana position into Circle Oil (LON:COP) - I liked the Circle story before but didn't want too much of my portfolio exposed to Egypt because of concerns about future instability when Mubarak dies. The other two thirds is still waiting for a home. I hope to get some time this weekend to read up a bit on companies flagged up on the FirstEnergy conference thread..

I have been buying some Sterling, but that is from top slicing my Encore position, rather than Dana money. (nb I know it's all just fungible money, but this seems a simpler way to think of the problem.)

db

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About djpreston

Djpreston

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One of the 80's "Barrow Boy" recruits to the City. Odd choice for someone who always wanted to be a submariner with a leaning to sonar. Never went to a uni and my love of economics and fascination with the City (who else would be sad enough to be reading the FT on the school bus at 13 and trading shares using their father's name?) was enough to see me through. Decided I didnt like London - hate it in fact and so stuck to the provinces with one of the big private banks. Then in '94 saw an opportunity to set up a discretionary portfolio management outfit for a firm of lawyers and have never looked back. Okay the salary may not compare (certainly doesnt) but then again, quality of life is all that matters, especially now I have four kids. The start of 2012 saw quite a change for us, with Aventus joining European Wealth Management Group, and so we are now European Investment Management where I am head of UK Equity. more »



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