Tanzania

Friday, May 22 2009 by
28

NO TA ON THIS THREAD PLEASE

Aminex has significant interests in Tanzania, including Ruvuma which will be drilled later this year.

Having started this thread some months ago, I have now added doverbeach, SW10chap, tournesol and marben100 as collaborators on the thread and intend that any moderation (or proper header writing/amending !) that may be required should be done by them and not me.

I hope that the outcome of this thread proves a happy one for all concerned.

ee


Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


Do you like this Post?
Yes
No
34 thumbs up
6 thumbs down
Share this post with friends



Aminex PLC is engaged in the exploration for, and the development and production of oil and gas reserves. Its principal area of activities includes the United States, East Africa, North Africa and North Korea. Its segments include Producing Oil and Gas Properties, Exploration Activities and Oilfield Services and Supplies. The Company's licenses in Tanzania include Nyuni PSA, Kiliwani North and Ruvuma PSA. During the year ended December 31, 2010, it drilled three wells, one in Tanzania and two in the United States. As of December 31, 2010, the Company held leases at Shoats Creek covering approximately 2,100 acres. Aminex Oilfield Services & Supply Company (AMOSSCO), its wholly owned subsidiary, provides logistics services to oil industry and sources oilfield equipment and consumables to international oil companies. In October 2013, Aminex Plc announced the sale of its producing gas wells at the South Weslaco Field, Hidalgo County, Texas to Northcote Energy PLC. more »

Share Price (Full)
0.82p
Change
-0.0  -0.6%
P/E (fwd)
n/a
Yield (fwd)
n/a
Mkt Cap (£m)
15.1



  Is Aminex fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


608 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

djpreston 14th Apr '11 349 of 608
6

Another good bit of news:

Nyuni extension granted for 6 months. No worries over Nyuni 2 running over the end of the current agreement.

Also terms of a new PSA agreed - just need to be signed.

All slowly building newsflow.

Fund Management: European Wealth
| Link | Share | 2 replies
Surandy 14th Apr '11 350 of 608

In reply to djpreston, post #349

Also terms of a new PSA agreed - just need to be signed.

 

Looks like Aminex will be taking control and operatorship of West Songo Songo shortly. Only questions left are what percentage KEY will be left with, if any, and will KEY get anything in return for the loss of control/percetage ownership of WSS.

| Link | Share
safetyfirst 14th Apr '11 351 of 608

Note that the well is to be spudded in the next few weeks.. For some reason I had it written down as most probably june?

| Link | Share
djpreston 14th Apr '11 352 of 608
3

I'm simply staggered that the price isn't responding to the news over the past few days.

I'm even more staggered that no one has really analysed the dev licence rns more closely.

Fund Management: European Wealth
| Link | Share | 3 replies
REO100 14th Apr '11 353 of 608
2

In reply to djpreston, post #352

I'm probably making a mistake as when I looked at the Orca 3rd qtr report 2010 - they seemed to be achieving an average of $8.01 - us$/mcf in the industrial sector - so I thought it was very good news.

Reo

| Link | Share | 1 reply
salty64 14th Apr '11 354 of 608

In reply to djpreston, post #352

Perhaps they are waiting for the spudding of the Nyuni-2 well, due in the next few weeks. Everything looks very good to me from here. I have read about potential profits but happy to wait for success with the drill bit. There are plenty of problems to overcome. I even added a few today, just to round up the numbers.

| Link | Share
bankerbasher 14th Apr '11 355 of 608

In reply to djpreston, post #352


"I'm simply staggered that the price isn't responding to the news over the past few days."

Massive overhang of stock at 8p and according to Davie KN is worth 1p a share

http://www.davy.ie/LR?id=489


What sort of price target did you have in mind?

| Link | Share
davjo 14th Apr '11 356 of 608
1

In reply to djpreston, post #349

No worries over Nyuni 2 running over the end of the current agreement.

Says he with fingers, arms and legs crossed that we don't see a repeat of Nyuni-1X...which I'm sure we won't ;-)

| Link | Share
Jimla 15th Apr '11 357 of 608

1p a share? I'd missed that - for a 7.5 million barrel oil equivalent asset? I know that's not the same value as 7.5 mob but surely that's coming in low?

| Link | Share
oilretire 15th Apr '11 358 of 608

In reply to REO100, post #353

No mistake Reo, back in Q1 2007 it was $7.70/mcf industrial & $2.19/mcf power (from Key presentations)

| Link | Share
Jimla 18th Apr '11 359 of 608

So 40 million cubic feet per day @ $6 per thousand cubic feet. Plus the development of the US assets putting production up to 1,000 bopd at $100 per barrel. Assume 320 days production per year. Therefore by 2012 we should be pulling in roughly £70 million per anum. That's discounting any success at Nyuni-2 or Likonde-2. Even if they're both dusters we should be able to fund future explo.

I recognise that's putting a fairly positive spin on things in terms of up time, price of oil and gas qchives and not applying SW10's law for Kiliwani coming on stream - it does look quite rosey though. Even if you halve that number it looks healthy.

Any comments on the figures?

| Link | Share | 1 reply
mangotree 18th Apr '11 360 of 608

So 40 million cubic feet per day @ $6 per thousand cubic feet.

 

 According to the Davy report above,

We assume that the gas can be sold at rates of $3.50 per MCF on average. This values Aminex's share of recoverable gas at Kiliwani North, estimated at 23 BCF, at c.1p per share.

| Link | Share
oilretire 18th Apr '11 361 of 608

In reply to Jimla, post #359

Agree, future looks bright....

However, IMO gas income won't be at well test rate, not at first. It'll be demand/contract driven, so until we start getting contracts signed we won't know the flow let alone the price achieved.

Plant capacity rights will also come into it.

So still quite a few unknowns that awaits news.

| Link | Share
Jimla 18th Apr '11 362 of 608
1

Mangotree - that's my point, I think 1p a share sounds low. BH has stated in presentations that Orca's published figures are a good reflection of what can be expected in terms of gas sale price for Aminex.

Oilretire - take your points about flow rates, demands and pipeline restrictions. Before KN1 became something that now seems tangible, there was significant talk about the upgrade in pipeline/facilities being one of the blocking factors. This seems to have only been mentioned in passing over recnt weeks so I guess it a) wasn't quite the show stopper I previously interpreted and b) will still be a significant factor in restricting sales/revenue.

Anyone heard any more about this?

| Link | Share | 1 reply
peterg 18th Apr '11 363 of 608
2

In reply to Jimla, post #362

Hi Jimla,

Perhaps there has been less talk about the issue of facilities bootlenecks as these are now being upgraded? See e.g. the development licence RNS and also I think a recent presentation (not at home at present so hard to check). Also note that BH did mention pipeline capacity issues in the RNS.

I certainly see KN as being very important for cash flow going forward, and the 1p strikes me as too low, though at this stage the cash flow seems more important than NPV. However, I'd agree will oilretire that caution is needed in terms of short/mid term production rates.

Peter

| Link | Share
bankerbasher 20th Apr '11 364 of 608
4

Talking hypothetically lets assume that AEX can acheive a figure of say £8million net from KN. This does not seem unreasonable considering the pipeline restrictions and uncertainty and unknowns to supply the gas sector. As there are almost 800 million shares in issue and assuming the production was valued at a PE of 10 this would give 1p a share!

Clearly this would be good news for AEX on an operational level and leaves lots of upside potential if more pipeline capacity and/or production agreements come on line.

However the market may well be sceptical of any projected figures bearing in mind AEX track record of delivering production in the US.

What realy worries me is that most of AEX exploration this year is for gas and trying to monetize it will take years.

A takeover by a larger player would be the best result for all parties!

| Link | Share | 1 reply
djpreston 20th Apr '11 365 of 608
3

In reply to bankerbasher, post #364

So you are assuming 7M scf/d at $5 per mcf? Probably low but fair. I woudlnt agree with you regarding Pe ratings off the cashflows but there you go. As you say though it would be good news operatonally.

A takeover does look like being the most likely exit route, especially with the "hot" area now extending into Tanz following the BG/Ophir successes. Ophir and perhaps HOIL would be amongst my list of likely acquirers but we will see I guess - theres a way to go but Nyuni 2 spudding draws ever nearer.

Fund Management: European Wealth
| Link | Share
moniclub 22nd Apr '11 366 of 608
5

no idea how new this is (suffice it to say that it's news to me):

a snippet from the "Tanzania Country Brief: March 2011" in "Ratio Magazine" (but apparently posted on 21 April)

"Northern Irish company Castletown Enterprises has expressed an interest in developing a new pipeline to transport natural gas from the Songo Songo gas field to Dar es Salaam. The project would add up to 200MW to the national grid with potential to rise to 500MW in the future. Castletown, based near Belfast, hope to soon enter a Memorandum of Understanding with the government to formalise the relationship and allow implementation to begin."

http://www.ratio-magazine.com/201104203914/Tanzania/Tanzania-Country-Brief-March-2011.html

info appears to be confirmed by this link, apparently dated 4 April:

http://blog.jaluo.com/?p=13199

M

| Link | Share
DearLeader 28th Apr '11 367 of 608
1

From the AR:
This new PSA will cover the existing area held under licence with the exception of the Kiliwani North Development Licence area together with four additional blocks to the north.
Forgive my ignorance (and the punctuation in the AR doesn't make it quite clear if this is not the case), but the way I read it, is that four blocks are being taken out of the existing PSA. Do we know what gaps we have? Other posters seem to read it as new blocks being awarded. Does anyone have any clarification?
cheers
DL

| Link | Share | 1 reply
djpreston 28th Apr '11 368 of 608
11

In reply to DearLeader, post #367

Forgive my ignorance (and the punctuation in the AR doesn't make it quite clear if this is not the case), but the way I read it, is that four blocks are being taken out of the existing PSA. Do we know what gaps we have? Other posters seem to read it as new blocks being awarded. Does anyone have any clarification?
cheers
DL

DL

Its additional acreage.

Puts to rest the concerns that people were expressing that we would lose the license (already dismissed by the Dev licence on KN) but this now shows how strong the ties are with the Tanz Govt  if we are getting additional acreage.

Now, its all very interesting - we have a near term production asset in KN1 with gas sales contracts/negotiations underway (industrial sales therefore premium pricing), an existing gas discovery in Nyuni-1 with Nyuni-2 imminent and now more acreage to the North in an area where others are expressing real interest (Ophir's recent deal for instance....

Overall really surprised that no one is paying more attention to AEX. This is brilliant news - roll on the full release, which Id imagine is pretty close as it sounds like it needs a signature and thats all. Then again, this is Africa.....

D

Fund Management: European Wealth
| Link | Share | 1 reply

What's your view on this thread? to Comment Now

 
 
You are feeling neutral

Use the £ sign in front of a ticker to turn £VOD into Vodafone PLC

You can track all @StockoChat comments via Twitter

 Are Aminex's fundamentals sound as an investment? Find out More »





Stock Picking Tutorial Centre


Related Content
The New Aminex
The New Aminex
Aminex 13th Jul '12


North Korea
North Korea
Aminex 25th May '09

DRC  Congo K
DRC - Congo (K)
SOCO International 26th May '09

Analysts reports
Analysts reports
SOCO International 6th Aug '09


Stock Picking Simplified

Stockopedia takes your stock picking to the next level with cutting edge Stock Reports & Screening tools.


Get started
or Take a Tour to find out more.