I am starting a new discussion thread on Aminex because, in my opinion, the company has transformed significantly since the appointment of Stuard Detmer (SD) as CEO in September 2011.
In particular, whilst previously the company had a global spread of assets (and we had separate threads covering each). SD has now decided to focus exclusively on Africa, and other assets will be progressively divested. With the East African margin now having been proven as a major gas province, and plans for major LNG facilities under development, offering a route to market, that casts a new light on the value of Aminex's East African assets.
NB, as moderator, I do not intend to permit discussion of hour by hour price moves or long debates about T.A. here. If anyone wishes to discuss those, I suggest that you start your own thread.
Readers can download a detailed article on Aminex's strategy, that I wrote after the May 2012 AGM. You will note that several of the "next events" mentioned then have now occurred or are well underway. I won't repeat the ground covered in that article here.
Let's begin with some maps from Aminex's latest presentation, published today. The first shows Aminex's acreage (the Nyuni and Ruvuma PSAs) in the context of recent discoveries:
Next we have some detail on the Ruvuma PSA:
Route to Market
Besides the likely future LNG developments, Aminex's Ruvuma PSA benefits from a major pipeline development that has just begun. This will run some 25km from the Ntorya disovery, thus providing an export route for domestic consumption.
Aminex's prospects look exciting: there are a lot of interesting and potentially transformative leads in the Nyuni and Ruvuma acreage, as can be seen from the recent resource report and presentation. That prospectivity, however, is underpinned by significant tangible assets:
These are currently being sold. It is hard to judge what they might fetch, but US producing assets are often sold on the basis of existing production. A typical/conservative figure is US$50,000 per boepd (allowing for a significant gas element).
Aminex's 2011 production was 130,250 boe, i.e. 357 boepd. That gives an estimated value of ~$18m (£11m).
The resource report shows discovered GIIP of 178*75% for Ntorya plus 45*70% for KN-1 = 165bcf net to Aminex.
We can value that gas by comparison to Cove Energy (LON:COV) 's offshore Mozambique discoveries. Cove's latest presentation (slide 8) shows that they have discovered ~70*8.5% = 6tcf of GIIP. Cove's market cap. is currently £1,358m. So that yields a value of £0.23m per bcf - i.e. £38m
So, that gives a reasonable value for known assets of £49m. This allows nothing for cash (level unknown at present), the Amossco service company or, of course, upside prospectivity.
Let the debate begin...
The author may hold shares in this company, all opinions are his own and you should check any statements that appear factual and not rely on them before making an investment decision. The author is NOT a qualified analyst nor authorised to give investment advice. Whilst the author is a director of ShareSoc, all views expressed are entirely his own and not necessarily those of ShareSoc.