Tullow's drilling program (with results archive)

18th Oct '09 by doverbeach

45 comments 16703 reads

THIS THREAD NOW CLOSED - FOR 2011 program and archive, see http://www.stockopedia.com/content/tullow-2011-drilling-program-and-results-52284/

Updated for the good Mercury result in Sierra Leone - Tullow only have 10% but looks as though the hunt for Jubilleee lookalikes is going well. Rig onto appraisal of Owo and Tweneboa, for 3 wells.

Also tidied up the table for other stuff, most importantly ?s by all Uganda drilling as it seems likely that NOTHING is happening at the moment. Ntherlands postponed to Q2 next year.

If anyone sees any corrections/improvements, please reply on this thread.

	Block	Prospect	date
Ghana	DWT	Onyina	FAILURE - water bearing
		Owo & Tweneboa appraisal	next - 3 well program
	WCTP	Teak	December
		Dahoma up-dip	Q4 / Q1 2011
		South Central Channel South East Channel Banda West Odum East	2011 campaign
other WATM		Mercury	SUCCESS
	SL-7(Sierra Leone) and LB-15 (Liberia)	Cobalt	early next year
Uganda	Block 1	Mpyo-1	success
		Jobi East 2 & East 5, Leopard-1	?
	Block 2	Kigogle-5	?
	Block 3a	Kanywataba-1	?
other Africa	Lindi (Tanzania)	?	work underway to select next location
	Block 6 (Mauritania)	Gharabi	next
	Block 7 (Mauritania)	Cormoran	drilling
S America	Coronie (Suriname)	5 wells	starting Q4
	Guyane Martime (French Guiana)	Zaedyus	Dec
	Georgetown (Guyana)	Jaguar	Dec
Pakistan	Kohat	Shekhan-1	success - gas discovery - next explo well 2011
	Kalchas	Kup-1	Sept
Netherlands	E13b & E15c	Muscovite & Seahorse	Q2 11 (currently reviewing new seismic)

Results Archive from Sept 09

15.10.09 Ghana: Mahogany-4 Explo/Appraisal Well http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200910150700057...

43m net hydrocarbon pay penetrated; result confirms that Jubilee field extends beyond this location. Of the 43m net HC pay, 15m net oil pay in the main Jubilee reservoirs, 20m net oil pay in a new sand below the main Jubilee reservoirs, a 4m wet gas sand and 4m net oil pay in Mahogany Deep-aged…

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Jubilee core

South East Extension

Total

P10

P50

P90

P10

P50

P90

P10

P50

P90

Before

500

700

1000

100

500

800

600

1200

1800

Now

500

700

1000

100

350

600

600

1050

1600

djpreston

20th Apr '10

First failure offshore Ghana

Dahoma-1 in West Cape Three Points found 30m of good quality sandstone reservoir below a possible OWC but no oil. There were signs of oil migration, which they feel points to good potential for oil trapped up-dip.

fuiseog

Goodbody comment:-

The significance of the result is a likely pull-back in the gross expectations for the surrounding Jubilee field from the c.800 mbo range to c.600 mbo with the forthcoming Mahogany-5 well likely to have more of a bearing on whether the P50 target of 500 mbo is nudged lower. Previously, Tullow had guided a P90-P50-P10 range for the area southeast of Jubilee of 100-500-800 mbo with Jubilee guided at 500-700-1000 mbo. Combined, the total gross upside was 1.8bn barrells.

NCB's tables their changed expectations:-

	Jubilee core	South East Extension	Total
	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90	P10	P50	P90
Before	500	700	1000	100	500	800	600	1200	1800
Now	500	700	1000	100	350	600	600	1050	1600

B****r, struggling with the formatting. NCB overall comment:-

Having drawn a blank at the more aggressively located well in the southeast, Tullow´s
drilling campaign on Jubilee is now focussed on lower risk targets within or closer to the
main area, with the next well at Mahogany 5. The next major step-out on Jubilee is the
Sapeli well, due to drill in 2011, which Tullow say has stronger indications from the
seismic data than Dahoma. Before then, however, Tullow will drill a higher risk well in
the Tweneboa extension area on the Owo well, due to start in June.

http://www.ncbresearch.com/daily/NCBLatestIrishEquities.pdf

emptyend

.....mmmm......don't understand those figures. How come the P90 figures shown in the broker note are double/treble the P10s....surely it should be the other way round! (P standing for probability)

Thanks EE, I should have spotted that.

fuiseog

28th Apr '10

A note from Davy this morning looking into drilling programme valuations, and especially the planned June Owo drilling.

https://www.davydirect.ie/content/articles/tullcr20100427.pdf

11th May '10

Some comment via Goodbody about Gabon:-

"US-based Vaalco, which is the operator of some of the fields in which Tullow has an interest in Gabon, released its Q1 results after the close of the market in New York last night in which it provided an update on development activity. The area of relevance to Tullow relates to the Avouma, Ebouri and Etame fields where a development programme is currently being undertaken in a bid to maintain production. The first of four wells, (Ebouri 4H), commenced production on May 2nd at a gross rate of 3,700 bopd. A second well, (Ebouri 3H), on the same field is anticipated to be onstream towards the middle of the month at a gross rate in the range of 3,000 to 4,000 bopd. The drilling programme on Etame is to include an exploration well (SE Etame), which is targeting gross recoverable reserves of 27 mmbo. The update follows a similar statement last week from Maurel et Prom (M&P) outlining efforts to boost production in the Onal and Omko fields in Gabon where Tullow also has an interest. Our FY10 forecasts assume 31% of Tullow's oil production and 22% of total production to emanate from Gabon with production from the region to average 12,500 on a working interest basis. Against the backdrop of a declining production base, ahead of initial production from Jubilee (target Q4 start date) the updates from Vaalco and M&P are positive, though we would stress that the fields outlined above are all marginal contributors to Tullow's production base in Gabon, given that in each of the aforementioned cases its interest is just 7.5%."

ohisay

3rd Jul '10

Comment from Merrill posted on FT Alphaville yesterday .

Tullow’s analyst trip to Ghana has highlighted the unique opportunity set that the
company enjoys and the strength/depth of its in-country team. Achieving first oil
from Jubilee in 4Q10 as planned and with minimal (<10%) deviation from the
original budget – despite some operational set backs (eg, well completions) – is a
world class achievement, in our view.

The quality of the project and number of
prospects (eg, Sapele, Teak, Onyina) surrounding Jubilee offer significant room to
extend the field’s plateau via infill drilling or tie backs. We continue to see Tullow
as a core holding in European Oils and reiterate our Buy rating (1725p PO)

Importantly, Tullow shows increased confidence to capture further exploration
upside in Ghana. Whilst overall P10 upside has not changed (Tweneboa, Owo
and West Cape/Tano upsides remain at 1.4bn boe each) the composition and
confidence on achieving this upside appears to have improved. Management
indicate +50% in the chance of success in the Owo prospect – results due in 2-3
weeks – with the prospect appearing analogous to the Plutonio field in Angola.
The high risk/high reward Onyina well (spud later in 3Q) seems to have materially
increased in size with the main risk being around trapping. These two prospects
account for the bulk of the Ghana upside and likely will be key for TLW in 2H.

doverbeach

thanks ohisay - I have updated the header with some of this, also some recent drilling results

db

4th Jul '10

Hi DB - I see Tullow have posted a voluminous presentation on Ghana on their website now which fleshes out some of the broker comments.

http://files.the-group.net/library/tullow/ghana/pdfs/capital_markets_event.pdf

oilretire

5th Jul '10

Well that killed a chunk of night shift :-)

165 slides!

If your well versed in Ghana & short of time, slides 151-161 "Beyond Ghana" gives a good overview of the 'bookends' theory from Jubilee to Venus and the connections with the South American acreage.

Yes - 158 to 160 are particularly interesting - plays here are one of the main reasons I got into Hardman years ago.!

I see there is a trading /operational update due tomorrow - market will be looking towards some clarification in Uganda I would have thought as uncertainty has been a major drag on the share price.

Bought a few this morning anyway.

6th Jul '10

header updated for the very good Ghana presentation and the trading update.

Sheken-1 (Pakistan) was a success and flow-tested - but they don't give the rates.

They have a second rig in Uganda and are now drilling in block 1 and one of the next wells is in 3a, so they seem to have given up confining their activities to Block 2 pending transaction finalisation.

db

Snippet from Davy this morning.

http://www.davy.ie/Generic?page=MorningNews5

Offshore Ghana, the Owo well is currently drilling and the first part of the well will shortly be in reservoir. This will be followed by the Onyina well, also offshore Ghana. Taken together, these have the potential to add significantly to upside volumes, especially given that Tullow has a 50% equity interest in both wells; we estimate that the success case for Owo alone could add over 150p per share.

DAVY VIEW: The statement underpins our belief that if the Ugandan deal can be completed, it and the very attractive drilling programme in sight over the next seven months or so will result in a recovery from much of the price attrition experienced since the end of 2009. We rate the stock 'outperform' With a NAV — and price target — of 1450p per share.

26th Jul '10

header update for very good Owo-1 well result

1st Sep '10

From Goodbody today

North Sea activity

Industry sources confirm that the operator of the Muscovite prospect, GdF, is on track to commence drilling the well in Q4. Tullow has a 16.7% stake in the relevant block (E 13b) and while of nominal interest in terms of contribution to NAV (risked contribution of 0.4p out of a Total NAV of 1094.1p) the drilling of Muscovite will mark Tullow's inaugural participation on the Dutch side of the North Sea. Prior activity has been confined to the UK side, from which we estimate Tullow will derive c.21% of forecasted FY10 production of 57.6 kbopd. Outside of Block 13b Tullow retains interests in six Dutch North Sea blocks all of which it operates with stakes ranging from 20% to 50%. Exploration activity on those blocks is now anticipated to commence in the second half of 2011 as potential prospects are identified following analysis of survey data.

And from Arbuthnot:

Report: "Credit where credit's due"

Tullow finds itself in the middle of Heritage Oil and the Ugandan government's tax argument. Until this situation is resolved, Tullow cannot close its transactions with Total and CNOOC. We believe that this situation is unlikely to be resolved in the short term and is out of Tullow's control. We analyse how Tullow is valued within its peer group and feel that too much up-front credit is given to its exploration portfolio ahead of drilling. Given the above issues and the recent results, we have reviewed our model. We reduce our recommendation to Sell and set a target price of 971p (from 1,514p).

7th Sep '10

We reduce our recommendation to Sell and set a target price of 971p (from 1,514p).

Of course we are now seeing the other side of the coin:

Also suggested as a takeover target was Tullow Oil, up 26p at £11.82 as rumours went round the market about a possible £20 a share offer.

....and up again this morning, I see!

It is surprising that analyst views and putative interest from bidders remains as far apart as they seem to.....

.......though we'll see whether Dana's defence tomorrow does anything to close the gap.

24th Sep '10

Guys, could we keep this thread just for a record of drilling results please? Plenty of other Tullow threads for other stuff :)

Header updated for the excellent owo sidetrack result and news of Cormoran spud in Mauritania.

db

Tullow's drilling program (with results archive)

Ghana

other WATM

Uganda

other Africa

S America

Pakistan

Netherlands

Results Archive from Sept 09

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Doverbeach

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