Valuation, sentiment, and SP direction

Wednesday, Jun 17 2009 by
16

Detailed discussion of Soco's assets should take place on other threads, but this thread is to discuss the latest valuations both by ourselves and analysts, sentiment (ie will the shares go nowhere because there's not much upcoming news) and likely moves in the share price in the next six months.  How should the shares be valued?  How reasonable is it that any drilling without a firm commitment further than several months away is ignored by the market?

I haven't seen many recent analysts' reports on Soco, but I have one from Cazenove with a core NAV of 1370p and no doubt considerable explo NAV on top of that.  I imagine that's approximately concensus, but maybe with crude rising again these concensus NAV figures will start to rise.  Has anyone any other recent broker estimates?

My view, as stated elsewhere, remains that in the absence of much to get the market excited the shares will wander aimlessly for the rest of 2009.  I've previously guessed that if crude were $65 at Christmas 09, then Soco's SP would be somewhere near £13 then, and I'm still very happy with that guess.  What does anyone else think?

Of course unexpected bids and other events may overtake this, but these sort of events may happen to any company, and perhaps Soco (where management seem unlikely to accept bids since they believe there is considerable value not recognised by the market) is one of the less likely companies to be affected by the unexpected.  The key new news for Soco might be (a) a bid (IMO unlikely), (b) some sort of presentation by management of the drilling data they claim to have that demonstrates a significant strike has been made at E, currently ignored by the mkt, or (c) possibly hitting oil off the Congo.

 

Moderation note: posts will only be deleted from this thread by the site admins or by agreement from at least three of sirlurkalot, emptyend, djpreston and doverbeach.  If three of this list agree to delete a post, the names of those three and the reason for deletion will be noted in a post on this thread so everything's completely transparent.


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SOCO International plc is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company has oil and gas interests in Vietnam, which includes Block 9-2 and Block 16-1; Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), which includes Marine XI Block and Marine XIV Block, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa), consists of Nganzi block and Block V and Angola, which include Cabinda Onshore North Block. The Company's operations are located in South East Asia and Africa. It holds its interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), through its 85%-owned subsidiary, SOCO Exploration and Production Congo SA (SOCO EPC). It holds its interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) through its 85%-owned subsidiary SOCO Exploration and Production DRC Sprl. The Company’s net entitlement volumes were approximately 15,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. more »

Share Price (Full)
424.9p
Change
-5.1  -1.2%
P/E (fwd)
10.5
Yield (fwd)
4.2
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,427



  Is SOCO International fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


1303 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

sirlurkalot 18th Jun '09 3 of 1303
3

Given that the market doesn't have much in the price for the non-flowing E area, it doesn't believe there's a workable field there, so more seismic interpretation seems unlikely to do much for the shares.  It's got to flow before the mkt seems likely to believe there's a workable field, so yes, the next well could be very interesting, but that's 2010.  Why can't the management release the drilling data they claim to have that was going to convince prospective buyers it was an attractive flowing field?

Yes Mark, the Marine XI well might help, but how material is it?

Most of the other matters mentioned seem to be 2010 ones, when things might be exciting, but it's 2009 now.  Trading between £11 and £14 seems fine, but that's all that's goin' on in 2009 IMO.

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marben100 18th Jun '09 4 of 1303
2

In reply to sirlurkalot (post #3)

Yes Mark, the Marine XI well might help, but how material is it?

Good question. Per my AGM notes, two wells are planned. The first is relatively shallow (1200m) and will act as a "commissioning" well for the new rig to be deployed, targetting a pre-salt structure. This will be followed by a 2800m well targetting a sub-salt structure. One of these (and unfortunately my notes aren't good enough to recollect which) will target the rather large prospect, to the left of Marine XI, extending into Marine XIV, shown on slide 15 of the AGM presentation. If I've got it right, this has the name "Lyeki" - which translates as "whale". ISTR some rather large prospective figures being mentioned: perhaps time to visit the Congo thread & see what others have to say...

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 5 of 1303
2

Why can't the management release the drilling data they claim to have that was going to convince prospective buyers it was an attractive flowing field?

Because nobody outside the industry would understand it anyway! But that isn't really the point....the point is that they think there is a big fan structure there, and that the TGD-1X well was drilled right at one extremity of it - and DST-2 was inconclusive as regards flow (despite fluids being returned) thanks to the well problems. It is the new fan interpretation which is unproven (and indeed more or less unnoticed by the market), not the question of whether the (mainly gas) found in DST-1 would flow or not.

Trading between £11 and £14 seems fine, but that's all that's goin' on in 2009 IMO.

Yup - know that's your view. You might be right. But then you might not. All I'm saying is that pretty much everyone and his dog who is close to the City is taking exactly the same view.....and I don't think they'll be right.

ee

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 6 of 1303
4

In reply to marben100 (post #4)

Per my AGM notes, two wells are planned. The first is relatively shallow (1200m) and will act as a "commissioning" well for the new rig to be deployed, targetting a pre-salt structure. This will be followed by a 2800m well targetting a sub-salt structure. One of these (and unfortunately my notes aren't good enough to recollect which) will target the rather large prospect, to the left of Marine XI, extending into Marine XIV, shown on slide 15 of the AGM presentation. If I've got it right, this has the name "Lyeki" - which translates as "whale".

The first well is the 100mn bbl prospect Mark......should take a couple of weeks. This might turn out to be bigger, given that a 300mn bbl number was indicated last year. Neither well is targeting the "staddliing" prospect you mention (that will be drilled later in 2010)....the S1 (Lyeki) prospect is the large oval one and the second well is a 1km step-out appraisal well on the Viodo field, which would prove up a further 25mn bbls or so.

rgds

ee

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marben100 18th Jun '09 7 of 1303
2

In reply to emptyend (post #6)

Thanks ee. I see that we don't actually have a Congo (Brazzaville) thread yet. Would be handy to create one. So much to do, so little time. ;0)

Bottom line, though in response to SirL, is that, yes, the Congo wells this year could be material - and may enhance or reduce prospectivity of the licences, depending on what's found. Shame that JonnyT's drilling database (http://www.drillingdatabase.co.uk/company/show/2 ) doesn't seem to be up to date.

We could do with a summary of what's coming up and prospect sizes for Congo.

Some great notes from KoD here: http://www.stockopedia.com/forum/view/29284/soco-post-agm-reports-and-predictions?comment=7#7

Marine XI added since last year – rig contracted and moves in August – on large structure Liekie well (means whale) - then Viodo field – short order back to back – first campaign in Africa and lots more in the next year marine 14 – big structure 2010 extends into this block – so farmed in to that –

My recollection is that the Lieke structure could be very large - but we'll have to wait & see what the drillbit finds. Seems to coincide with your recollection. In the light of their experience with Deep-E and (& market reaction to announcements), Ed & Roger are now being more cautious in their figures & timetables, aiming to underpromise & overdeliver. Let's hope they succeed.

Cheers,

Mark

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marben100 18th Jun '09 8 of 1303
1

In reply to emptyend (post #1)

My view on this is pretty simple: If they were to sell in VN BEFORE they drill the TGD appraisal, it is likely they would want £25+ per share for the VN assets. This is £11+ of core (according to Caz's fig 5.1) and the balance being explo upside (Caz's total for the three VN line items in fig 5.3 is 1996p - to which, as I say, can probably be added the deep gas play and the full size of the fan). If they sell AFTER drilling TGD-2X, thus derisking the fan, they would want something over £35 per share [given my comments above about a potential £40-50 upside and £11 of core].

So I see VN as either £25 sometime between now and next May or £35 sometime in the year from mid-2010 to mid-2011.

Here is where we have a difference of opinion on the likely endgame (though not necessarily on the figures you suggest). The impression I have from the last two AGMs is that Ed & Roger are very optimistic about the structure, for sound reasons, which I share. I also have the impression that they really don't want to undersell this. Whilst I wouldn't rule it out entirely, I just don't think that any industry player will offer enough to satisfy them, until they've drilled the structure properly and satisfied themselves and everyone else with what's really there.

One key point that emerged in a chat I had with Rui before the meeting (and ISTR was confirmed in your & others' conversations after the meeting) is that Roger and Ed have no intention of retiring yet and are happy to continue with Soco for the next 5-7 years, until they've built the value in their African prospects (or been forced to abandon them!). Given a strong balance sheet and growing future revenues, that means that they're under no time pressure to sell VN. If I were in their shoes and was as confident about TGD prospects as they appear to be, I certainly wouldn't want to sell prematurely.

So, my view is that a VN sale before TGD has been satisfactorily drilled is unlikely. It could be more than £35. ;0)

From my investment perspective, the downside risk appears limited (barring a further POO collapse) and the upside, on a 3 year view, substantial. I do not quite have SirL's market timing ablities (but I'm trying to learn/improve :0)).

Regards,

Mark

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 9 of 1303
1

In reply to marben100 (post #7)

Hi Mark,

My recollection is that the Lieke structure could be very large - but we'll have to wait & see what the drillbit finds. Seems to coincide with your recollection.

Fortunately I have my notes! ;-)

Last year it was said that the S1 (Lieke) structure was 12km long and 120m thick carbonate, with the main risk being whether it was charged. It was also suggested it was up to 300mn bbls. This year I notice that the structure seems to be shown as very slightly smaller and that 100mn bbls looks in proportion with the size of the 250mn bbl Emeraude field to the south. I guess they could revise this again after they drill....probably to zero ;-)

ee

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 10 of 1303
2

In reply to marben100 (post #8)

Here is where we have a difference of opinion on the likely endgame (though not necessarily on the figures you suggest). The impression I have from the last two AGMs is that Ed & Roger are very optimistic about the structure, for sound reasons, which I share. I also have the impression that they really don't want to undersell this. Whilst I wouldn't rule it out entirely, I just don't think that any industry player will offer enough to satisfy them, until they've drilled the structure properly and satisfied themselves and everyone else with what's really there......So, my view is that a VN sale before TGD has been satisfactorily drilled is unlikely. It could be more than £35. ;0)

I don't think we have any difference of view at all at this point. I ALSO think a deal to sell VN is now unlikely before the next well is drilled - but that doesn't mean that it is actually impossible - and obviously doing a deal before a well is drilled would be cheaper for a buyer....though perhaps not cheap enough? After last year's AGM I took a different view, but two key things have changed since then: a) the fall in oil prices has made buyers more cautious, especially re unproven explo upside and b) SOCO think they have found a oil-charged fan structure that might be (blue sky guessing!!) 1-1..5bn bbls. Obviously that is a combination that widened the bid/ask spread......even if it seemed until perhaps (in retrospect) November that a deal could still be done.

One key point that emerged in a chat I had with Rui before the meeting (and ISTR was confirmed in your & others' conversations after the meeting) is that Roger and Ed have no intention of retiring yet and are happy to continue with Soco for the next 5-7 years, until they've built the value in their African prospects (or been forced to abandon them!). Given a strong balance sheet and growing future revenues, that means that they're under no time pressure to sell VN. If I were in their shoes and was as confident about TGD prospects as they appear to be, I certainly wouldn't want to sell prematurely.

We were both there for that conversation! However, I took that view with a pinch of salt, especially in terms of the implications for the post-VN management structure. However, it is certainly right to say that Ed a) will stick around until VN is monetised b) won't want to sell it cheaply and c) is not in any hurry. I'd be very surprised if a deal isn't done in two years - and I wouldn't be surprised to see one done at any point in the interim!

From my investment perspective, the downside risk appears limited (barring a further POO collapse) and the upside, on a 3 year view, substantial. I do not quite have SirL's market timing ablities (but I'm trying to learn/improve :0)).

If it were not for the fall in oil prices coupled with the new fan interpretation, I don't think that either of us would have been far wrong. What we could both do with is a working crystal ball....but I don't think it is any more than that.

ee

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sirlurkalot 18th Jun '09 11 of 1303
2

"If it were not for the fall in oil prices coupled with the new fan interpretation, I don't think that either of us would have been far wrong"

Excuses after the event.  Just accept it was a wrong call!  Everything's worked out as I guessed it would.

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thebuffoon 18th Jun '09 12 of 1303
2

In reply to sirlurkalot (post #11)

Excuses after the event.  Just accept it was a wrong call!  Everything's worked out as I guessed it would.

 You took a view, and you were right; well done. However, if you had got it wrong, the price would have moved away very quickly. Those who stayed in, and continue to stay in, will eventually do very well. They will also have had the insurance of being 'covered' in the event of a potential suitor taking Soco down the aisle in the meantime. Different strokes for different folks!

 

Buffy

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 13 of 1303
4

In reply to sirlurkalot (post #11)

Excuses after the event.  Just accept it was a wrong call!  Everything's worked out as I guessed it would.

I long ago accepted I made a wrong call - and have repeated the admission on a number of occasions. However, I don't recall you making any guesses that the oil price would fall by $100 - or that SOCO would come to believe that the VN assets were probably much more valuable than they thought last summer.  All you did was suggest that the share price would fall back - which of course it did.......along with 99% of the rest of the stocks in the market. Well....big deal!!  I call that making a lucky call personally - being right but (in large part) for the wrong reasons.....

....not that such a thing matters one iota - it is being right that counts above all else......so I'm surprised you appear to have to keep patting yourself on the back in such an ungallant manner.

ee

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sirlurkalot 18th Jun '09 14 of 1303
2

We've clarified that the fall of crude has had little to do with the fall of Soco's shares - they'd already fallen heavily before the crude peak.  That's why they haven't gone up much this year, unlike most of the rest of the sector.

It's always been the way on this sell-Soco-last-year call that if it went wrong, the price would have moved away quickly.  I always knew that.  But nevertheless, a correct analysis showed that the chance of M&A was so low that the odds didn't favour holding the shares.

The trouble is that, even if you had repeated the admission that you were wrong, it's always come with this sort of side shot at me for being lucky.  Can't you just accept your error with some grace?

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emptyend 18th Jun '09 15 of 1303
5

In reply to sirlurkalot (post #14)

We've clarified that the fall of crude has had little to do with the fall of Soco's shares - they'd already fallen heavily before the crude peak. 

Err no we haven't. Crude peaked on 3rd July last year at $147 and then fell by $21 in the following three weeks. SOCO's DST-2 result on TGD-1X emerged on 10th July, at which point the oil price fall was well under way - and so it became one of the early "obvious sells" in the E&P universe at that point as people sought to front-run further falls. The shares were  2000p on the day of the AGM (the 24th),  1924p on July 1st, 1836p  on 2nd July and 1702p on July 9th.....so over £2 of the fall seems to coincide quite well with the first week of the fall in crude prices, before the well results came out - followed by a further 350p fall over the four days after the well result before bottoming at 1350p ish. Basically the share price went down by less than 4% in the week after the AGM, compared with 12% in the following week when crude was seen to have topped - and a further 20% on the well results (during which crude was still falling)....... so one simply can't claim that the shares had "already fallen heavily before the crude peak" when basically all that happened was that they lost 4% in the week after the AGM - no big deal, I'd suggest. It is impossible to look at events affecting E&Ps after the blow-off peak in crude and try to claim that falling crude prices had nothing to do with it!

That's why they haven't gone up much this year, unlike most of the rest of the sector.

The reason why they haven't gone up as much is basically because production rates and the perceived likelihood of newsflow have been (correctly, so far) considered to be higher with other stocks....and so near-term returns have been expected to be higher. I know you know that from our Dana discussions.

 a correct analysis showed that the chance of M&A was so low that the odds didn't favour holding the shares

I imagine that the October news of an approach should have given a pause for thought on that?

The trouble is that, even if you had repeated the admission that you were wrong, it's always come with this sort of side shot at me for being lucky.  Can't you just accept your error with some grace?  I'm not trying to pat myself on the back - I'm trying to make you understand how wrong your call was.

I'd have thought that I HAVE accepted it with some grace - especially when you've repeatedly posted every few weeks for the last 9 months about what a rotten lousy call my call was and that your call was just so great!!  I know it was a bad call. I can see that in my portfolio value - I don't need telling....and neither does anyone else who made the same call. What I don't accept was that your rationale for selling was actually any better than mine was for holding, given the circumstances at that time, despite the fact the events very clearly worked very much in your favour (even though for largely unanticipated reasons!). There WAS a bid approach in the Autumn - and we'll never know whether, if oil prices had been higher and SOCO hadn't reached the fan interpretation (and if Lehman hadn't gone bust and wrecked the credit markets),  whether a deal could actually have been done. But none of this matters. You made the winning call and I made the losing one - isn't that enough??

ee

[ps - any chance we can draw a line under the history and look forward? I thought thats what this thread was supposed to be about.]

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repobear 18th Jun '09 16 of 1303
7

SirL,

You made your point and ee has graciously admitted that you called it right.

Please start another thread about your bad calls and your good calls over the last 18 months. What did you learn from your mistakes? What were your other good calls? How, without naming too many names, are you positioning yourself for the second leg of the downturn? What are your views on UK vs Europe vs US vs Asia (markets, economies and currencies)? Bank debt? Commodities? What are you shorting?

I'm sure that your already high credibility would be enhanced in such a thread, rather than banging on about past glories. Pompey's FA Cup win seems a long time ago after last season, just like my olie gains made 2005-7.

As it happens I think Soco won't show anything other than steady improvement in the share price over the next 9 months or so, and the big deal won't happen too soon. I still think my money here will do fine over a 2-3 year look though.

repobear

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jonnyt 18th Jun '09 17 of 1303
1

Yes TGD could be huge or alternatively it could be Shakesperian *

Like Sir L I personnaly thought a sale just wouldn't happen without at least one hole having the flowing black stuff.

Personally I don't see any point holding Soco until 2010

JonnyT

 

* Much ado about nothing

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emptyend 19th Jun '09 18 of 1303
4

In reply to emptyend (post #1)

Returning to the actual topic of this thread:

Caz.....1370p+ 569p risked = 1939p......

Other brokers?

Morgan Stanley - 22 May: price target of 1575p, base case NAV 1771p, bull case NAV 2162p [nb this seems to exclude all 2010 drilling]

Tristone - 14 May: price target of 1575p, NAV 1585p

Citi - 13 May:  price target 1300p, NAV 1344p [nb.....Citi were presumably in the "departure lounge" for their broker role by this point!]

Merrill: 11 March: price target 1500p, total NAV 2202p (incl 1554p core) [nb this includes only 201p of risked explo - less than half Caz's figure]

RBC  (Al Stanton) has slightly revised his NAV estimates in the sector, putting SOCO at 1922p.

That makes the shares at a 38% discount to his NAV. The premiums and discounts for the larger companies [ie all those that are 50% of SOCO's size or more) he covers are:

Tullow +1%, Venture +1%, Premier -18%,  Addax -13%, Cairn -23%, Heritage +5%.......so does SOCO at -38% stack up??

I'd suggest that gap could close at any time.......

ee

 

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djpreston 19th Jun '09 19 of 1303
9

Without wanting to sound like a "camp follower" I have to agree that Soco right now appears as one of the cheaper and "safest" liquid issues around at present.

It hasnt risen the POO rise like the others that should have increased the core values alone (Tristone is using $50 at the moment).

Yes there is relatively little news in the short term but there is incremental news (African campaign, seismic interpretation etc). I accept that it may not be one fo the best performer in the coming months and that most of the value add will come from the Vn side of the equation next year. Howevver, do I sell and look to come back in? That is the question I have been wrestling with for some time.

The reason I havent sold out is simply that it appears to be at an undeserved discount to NAVs compared to peers. We have a rising M&A trend at present and there will be a lot of cash knocking around that will either have been released form successful deals or looking to enter the "hot" market. On the basis that we see a few mid caps departing the sector then there is a real limit on the number of investible mid caps for the institutions to get involved with. An alaysis of the possible candidates in that sub sector will show SIA as being relatively good value. Thus we could well see some buying from this side, especially if an insto takes a twelve month view (which brings the Vn campaign back into focus).

There has been a lot fo funding going on and money is being recycled into those issues. Cash is often being raised (Id guess) by the instos to subscribe (or to play the M&A stories evolving) without raising their sector weightings and on that basis, Soco is seen as a low news flow story in the short term and is therefore perhaps seen as a "natural" source fo funds. That could well explain the underperformance.

Its a bit of a sod really. Soco looks one of the best medium term plays in the sector but short term its likely to be dull. Ive decided to accept that. Besides, I am finding it increasingly hard to come up with other ideas that appeal at the moment so why not leave it with a company where I like the finances, the management, the assets and the discount ot NAV? Would I buy now for "new" cases? Sure. Would I add for existing holders? Not really as they have a high enough exposure already. If it dipped much lower I probably would.

Anyway, back to trying to find some new ideas.

Fund Management: European Wealth
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emptyend 19th Jun '09 20 of 1303
3

In reply to djpreston (post #19)

Without wanting to sound like a "camp follower"

....just had this wonderful image of someone who looks as imposing as Desperate Dan mincing along......  ;-)

Soco right now appears as one of the cheaper and "safest" liquid issues around at present......do I sell and look to come back in? That is the question I have been wrestling with for some time.

One of the issues is, of course, that it isn't very often particularly liquid. Apart from the high volume day earlier this week, volumes have been tiny for ages. IMO that will make it very tough for institutions to rebuild positions, especially if they wait until "something is happening".

The reason I havent sold out is simply that it appears to be at an undeserved discount to NAVs compared to peers. We have a rising M&A trend at present and there will be a lot of cash knocking around that will either have been released form successful deals ...... An alaysis of the possible candidates in that sub sector will show SIA as being relatively good value...... Cash is often being raised (Id guess) by the instos to subscribe (or to play the M&A stories evolving) without raising their sector weightings and on that basis, Soco is seen as a low news flow story in the short term and is therefore perhaps seen as a "natural" source fo funds. That could well explain the underperformance.

Its a bit of a sod really. Soco looks one of the best medium term plays in the sector but short term its likely to be dull. Ive decided to accept that.

I am in 100% agreement with everything Darron says there! The issue for me has always been "why should I sell something that I KNOW is cheap" in order to buy something else that I only "think" might be cheap.  I have a very high level of certainty and confidence that SOCO will, when VN gets sold, be worth very substantially more than it is today. Why would I want to give away that upside in exchange for something that I'm (much) less certain about? Why would I want to try to be cute in market-timing exits and entries when that merely leaves me at the whim of unknown third parties' actions and timings? I might get lucky of course......but giving up a high level of certainty (IMO) of a high return in order to have a punt on even higher returns just doesn't appeal! I'm not a trader by nature.

ee

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ArtNouveau 19th Jun '09 21 of 1303

Wouldn't the seismic reprocessing (results due in September) significantly derisk the HPHT and therefore pre-empt a bid before further drilling next year?

 

ArtN

(bought more yesterday at £11.87 for the 'long-term')

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rhomboid 19th Jun '09 22 of 1303
2

Cash is often being raised (Id guess) by the instos to subscribe (or to play the M&A stories evolving) without raising their sector weightings and on that basis, Soco is seen as a low news flow story in the short term and is therefore perhaps seen as a "natural" source fo funds. That could well explain the underperformance.

 

Totally concur , Soco seems to be a 'sleeper' at the mo. and as such a 'switch to what's hot' theme has depressed the price to the point where I'm tempted to 'bet the farm' as I last did when the price was c. £1..just look at the paucity of ADVFN posts and the tacit acceptance that it is a 'cheap' rating but dead money short term.

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