Valuation, sentiment, and SP direction

Wednesday, Jun 17 2009 by
17

Detailed discussion of Soco's assets should take place on other threads, but this thread is to discuss the latest valuations both by ourselves and analysts, sentiment (ie will the shares go nowhere because there's not much upcoming news) and likely moves in the share price in the next six months.  How should the shares be valued?  How reasonable is it that any drilling without a firm commitment further than several months away is ignored by the market?

I haven't seen many recent analysts' reports on Soco, but I have one from Cazenove with a core NAV of 1370p and no doubt considerable explo NAV on top of that.  I imagine that's approximately concensus, but maybe with crude rising again these concensus NAV figures will start to rise.  Has anyone any other recent broker estimates?

My view, as stated elsewhere, remains that in the absence of much to get the market excited the shares will wander aimlessly for the rest of 2009.  I've previously guessed that if crude were $65 at Christmas 09, then Soco's SP would be somewhere near £13 then, and I'm still very happy with that guess.  What does anyone else think?

Of course unexpected bids and other events may overtake this, but these sort of events may happen to any company, and perhaps Soco (where management seem unlikely to accept bids since they believe there is considerable value not recognised by the market) is one of the less likely companies to be affected by the unexpected.  The key new news for Soco might be (a) a bid (IMO unlikely), (b) some sort of presentation by management of the drilling data they claim to have that demonstrates a significant strike has been made at E, currently ignored by the mkt, or (c) possibly hitting oil off the Congo.

 

Moderation note: posts will only be deleted from this thread by the site admins or by agreement from at least three of sirlurkalot, emptyend, djpreston and doverbeach.  If three of this list agree to delete a post, the names of those three and the reason for deletion will be noted in a post on this thread so everything's completely transparent.


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SOCO International plc is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company has oil and gas interests in Vietnam, which includes Block 9-2 and Block 16-1; Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), which includes Marine XI Block and Marine XIV Block, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa), consists of Nganzi block and Block V and Angola, which include Cabinda Onshore North Block. The Company's operations are located in South East Asia and Africa. It holds its interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), through its 85%-owned subsidiary, SOCO Exploration and Production Congo SA (SOCO EPC). It holds its interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) through its 85%-owned subsidiary SOCO Exploration and Production DRC Sprl. The Company’s net entitlement volumes were approximately 15,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. more »

Share Price (Full)
294.8p
Change
-8.0  -2.6%
P/E (fwd)
7.8
Yield (fwd)
5.4
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,005



  Is SOCO International fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


1313 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

loglorry 5th Dec '12 994 of 1313

Won't the reserves report be shared with the JV partners and as such have to be released to the market rather like drilling news? I guess if there is a confidentially agreement in place they might avoid this but then that could also be the case with drilling news.

ITSM if it is material they'll RNS it.

"There are no specific plans for an announcement outside of a normal release on other corporate issues"

Really doesn't say anything because a reserves upgrade itself could be a corporate issue. In fact the statement just says they'll announce anything that they would normally announce to do with company. Which is exactly what we'd expect. I think all it saying is that they don't plan to make announcements on things like the price of tea in Uruguay.

So we wait!

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emptyend 5th Dec '12 995 of 1313

In reply to loglorry, post #994

Won't the reserves report be shared with the JV partners

No. Not unless the report has been jointly commissioned.

Any report by any consultant is usually on the basis that it is for the exclusive use of the client.

They would obviously notice announcements though.

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ExTownie 5th Dec '12 996 of 1313

Many thanks tournesol and ee for the clarification.

ET

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kenobi 5th Dec '12 997 of 1313

It does seem odd that at the last AGM they stated there would be a review completed in the fall/September, with no mention that nothing would be announced. The whole thing slips, well at least 3-4 months, it's not over until the review is in, and now they're saying they won't release the info outside normal announcements.

obviously I'm hopeful that ee's interpretation turns out to be correct, the other interpretation I guess is that by the time we get to Jan, we're that much closer to the regular announcement dates, so perhaps it's more reasonable to wait until then.

Still no point fretting about things we can do little about, lets see what Jan brings.

K

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emptyend 5th Dec '12 998 of 1313
3

In reply to kenobi, post #997

It does seem odd that at the last AGM they stated there would be a review completed in the fall/September, with no mention that nothing would be announced. The whole thing slips, well at least 3-4 months, it's not over until the review is in

It is my understanding that the slippage from early December into January is due to wanting to incorporate more data from the recent TGT wells. You can draw your own conclusions as to why that might be.

Slippage from "the fall" happened much earlier - probably when the review was scoped out against the backdrop of likely production plans at TGT/CNV.

 

now they're saying they won't release the info outside normal announcements.

Not quite. They are saying:

There are no specific plans for an announcement outside of a normal release on other corporate issues

I must commend them on their extremely precise use of language. The only conclusion that can be drawn is that they haven't yet decided when or how to publish. 

ee

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fleecednflogged 6th Dec '12 999 of 1313

There seems to be a general presumption that there will be a material increase in reserves reported.

If Soco managment can see that there won't be a material increase, then there is no conflict with the disclosure rules if they say,

There are no specific plans for an announcement outside of a normal release on other corporate issues.

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SW10Chap 6th Dec '12 1000 of 1313
3

Does anyone know what Cindy Cagle is expected to bring to SOCO International (LON:SIA) as an executive director? (Announcement here.)

Apart from her personal relationship, I know nothing of her previous experience or specializations outside Soco and I'd be interested to know why the Board believe her to be a valuable addition.

 

SW10

 

 

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Asagi 6th Dec '12 1001 of 1313
1

Ms Cagle joined the Company at its founding in 1997 and holds the position of Group Company Secretary and Vice-President-Finance.

She knows the company inside-out and is basically FD?

Asagi (long SIA)

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peterg 6th Dec '12 1002 of 1313
2

In reply to SW10Chap, post #1000

Does anyone know what Cindy Cagle is expected to bring to SOCO International (LON:SIA) as an executive director?

No. I'm inclined to assume it has something to do with an expectation of imminent major changes at the company, though exactly what changes are expected, and how her elevation to the board helps in that respect escapes me. Could there be tax implications? 

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jseth123 6th Dec '12 1003 of 1313
9

SOCO announces that awards under the SOCO International plc Long Term Incentive Plan ("Awards") were made yesterday to the Executive Directors of the Company, Ed Story, Roger Cagle and Cynthia Cagle of 305,600, 229,200 and 156,300 ordinary shares of £0.05 each ("Shares"), respectively. On the date of the Awards, the market price of the Shares at the last closing was £3.597.


Tough couple of days at the office for Mrs Cagle...

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haiderali 6th Dec '12 1004 of 1313

In reply to SW10Chap, post #1000

Apart from her personal relationship,

Could that actually be the angle here? Perhaps it is to ensure Cagle family representation at the top table, at SIA plc if R.C. had to leave for some reason?

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fullbreakfast 6th Dec '12 1005 of 1313
1

In reply to peterg, post #1002

Could there be tax implications?

Not for UK tax, though I suppose it is possible that there could be a US tax benefit. I'd be inclined to doubt it, however.

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emptyend 6th Dec '12 1006 of 1313

IMO peterg is by far the closest in this guessing game. Some of the other thoughts are a million miles off the mark, IMO.

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jseth123 7th Dec '12 1007 of 1313
1

Can these awards be granted in a close period?

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tournesol 7th Dec '12 1008 of 1313
6

I tend to think that there is a rather large contralto* standing patiently in the wings, all ready to come on stage. ISTM that CG's appointment is designed to provide her with a front row seat when the fat lady comes on to perform.


(* I originally wrote soprano, but then thought that word might be misinterpreted as being connected to Tony of that ilk)

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peterg 7th Dec '12 1009 of 1313
1

In reply to jseth123, post #1007

Can these awards be granted in a close period?.

I would assume so, the structures under which these are awarded were set up years ago, and the awards don't involve any current decision - other than an assessment performance against benchmarks, so I can't see why a close period would prevent them being made.

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adam 7th Dec '12 1010 of 1313
1

a million quid for two days work.

there'd better be some jam for shareholders

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emptyend 7th Dec '12 1011 of 1313
1

In reply to peterg, post #1009

Can these awards be granted in a close period?.

I would assume so

No they can't. There is no close period at present - or there wasn't yesterday anyway.........

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jseth123 7th Dec '12 1012 of 1313
1

Can you be outside a close period if you are discussing a sale of company with another party(/parties)?

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SW10Chap 7th Dec '12 1013 of 1313
8

Thanks for all the thoughts on this - it would be good to hear more from the company because, as things stand, it leaves me feeling a little uncomfortable.

I have no problem with a company deciding to elevate their VP of Finance to the Board, normally I would expect a statement  to go with it explaining why the shareholders' company is going to benefit from the move - something like:

Rui de Souza, Chairman of Soco, said: "I am very pleased that Cynthia has agreed to join the Board.  She is highly distinguished in/as [...] and will bring invaluable expertise in [...] to the Board. In particular, her knowledge and understanding of [...] which is an essential element of the company's future strategy.

Something must have triggered this move now and I think Soco should be a little more transparent. Without transparency, the subsequent announcement of LTIP shares being awarded looks a little cosy.

If there really is a contralto standing in the wings then it could look even worse: if a Director of a company bought £562k of shares just before a significant announcement, and could reasonably be expected to have knowledge of that announcement, how would that look?

If there's a rational business logic to my benefit behind all this, then great - let the sunlight in.

SW10

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