Valuation, sentiment, and SP direction

Wednesday, Jun 17 2009 by
17

Detailed discussion of Soco's assets should take place on other threads, but this thread is to discuss the latest valuations both by ourselves and analysts, sentiment (ie will the shares go nowhere because there's not much upcoming news) and likely moves in the share price in the next six months.  How should the shares be valued?  How reasonable is it that any drilling without a firm commitment further than several months away is ignored by the market?

I haven't seen many recent analysts' reports on Soco, but I have one from Cazenove with a core NAV of 1370p and no doubt considerable explo NAV on top of that.  I imagine that's approximately concensus, but maybe with crude rising again these concensus NAV figures will start to rise.  Has anyone any other recent broker estimates?

My view, as stated elsewhere, remains that in the absence of much to get the market excited the shares will wander aimlessly for the rest of 2009.  I've previously guessed that if crude were $65 at Christmas 09, then Soco's SP would be somewhere near £13 then, and I'm still very happy with that guess.  What does anyone else think?

Of course unexpected bids and other events may overtake this, but these sort of events may happen to any company, and perhaps Soco (where management seem unlikely to accept bids since they believe there is considerable value not recognised by the market) is one of the less likely companies to be affected by the unexpected.  The key new news for Soco might be (a) a bid (IMO unlikely), (b) some sort of presentation by management of the drilling data they claim to have that demonstrates a significant strike has been made at E, currently ignored by the mkt, or (c) possibly hitting oil off the Congo.

 

Moderation note: posts will only be deleted from this thread by the site admins or by agreement from at least three of sirlurkalot, emptyend, djpreston and doverbeach.  If three of this list agree to delete a post, the names of those three and the reason for deletion will be noted in a post on this thread so everything's completely transparent.


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SOCO International plc is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company has oil and gas interests in Vietnam, which includes Block 9-2 and Block 16-1; Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), which includes Marine XI Block and Marine XIV Block, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa), consists of Nganzi block and Block V and Angola, which include Cabinda Onshore North Block. The Company's operations are located in South East Asia and Africa. It holds its interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), through its 85%-owned subsidiary, SOCO Exploration and Production Congo SA (SOCO EPC). It holds its interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) through its 85%-owned subsidiary SOCO Exploration and Production DRC Sprl. The Company’s net entitlement volumes were approximately 15,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. more »

Share Price (Full)
308.7p
Change
23.2  8.1%
P/E (fwd)
12.2
Yield (fwd)
4.9
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,025



  Is SOCO International fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


1316 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

flyinghorse 7th Dec '12 1017 of 1316
4

Are we not getting excited here for nothing. The LTIP shares announcement is consistent with the same last year?
http://www.socointernational.co.uk/index.php?cID=268&cType=news

FH

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WeeEck 7th Dec '12 1018 of 1316
1

I am not bothered about the share issue. I am just curious about why appoint her to the board now. It is not as if she is new on the scene. Ducks in rows comes to mind.

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peterg 7th Dec '12 1019 of 1316
4

In reply to adam, post #1010

a million quid for two days work.

No, the LTIP share to CC have nothing to do with her being on the board or not. She would have got them regardless of her recent move to the board.

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jseth123 7th Dec '12 1020 of 1316
2

In reply to flyinghorse, post #1017

Are we not getting excited here for nothing. The LTIP shares announcement is consistent with the same last year?
http://www.socointernational.co.uk/index.php?cID=268&cType=news


How anticlimactic!

I can't help but think there is something in the fact that CC has moved on to the board out of the blue, and my suspicion is that it's something that will see the Cagles be well rewarded in short order. We'll only know in retrospect obviously.

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emptyend 7th Dec '12 1021 of 1316
7

Just a few comments:

  1. CC has been an integral and important part of the company since it was formed
  2. She would have got the options anyway (as in all previous years)
  3. Eric is right to suggest ducks are being got in rows, IMO
  4. I'm not bothered about the lack of explanation, especially given the balance between execs and non-execs on the board and the fact that she would have been there anyway (as CoSec). JSeth iscompletely  wrong to suggest there is a lack of independence on the board - they have SEVEN non-execs for cripes sake. There won't be many other companies that have less than 30% of the board made up of Execs.

 

IMO it is a trivial formality, designed to give more operational flexibility/security, especially in the sort of scenarios that we can expect to see.

 

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peterdm 7th Dec '12 1022 of 1316
5

CC will now have a new/revised employment contract, and director terminations are handled differently to other employees - Companies Act rather than Employment Protection etc. Will require a motion to be passed at an AGM/EGM. May also be a different notice period. Seems like the sort of loose ends you might want to tie up if a material change is in the offing.

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davjo 8th Dec '12 1023 of 1316
3

Seems like the sort of loose ends you might want to tie up if a material change is in the offing.

Yes indeed! .....such as the long mooted "structural" board change, which may result post SV sale, for example ES stepping down with RC becoming CEO and CC CFO???? Not sure if that would be frowned upon though!

 

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tournesol 8th Dec '12 1024 of 1316
10

I think it fair to hazard a guess that the elephant in the room is the one wearing his polo kit and with his trunk packed ready to depart for a well deserved retirement.

Understand that and the rest of it becomes crystal clear.

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jseth123 14th Dec '12 1025 of 1316
3

Appointment of Chief Operating Officer

SOCO is pleased to announce that Mr Antony Maris has been appointed Chief Operating Officer of the Company with immediate effect.

Antony joined the Company as Operations and Production Manager in 2004, becoming Vice-President - Operations & Production in 2008.

Ed Story, President and CEO of SOCO, said:

"We are delighted with this promotion and what it means for the Company. Antony has proved himself time and time again and we look forward to his continued positive input to the business".


http://www.investegate.co.uk/soco-international-(sia)/rns/appointment-of-coo/201212141048235595T/

Tick tock

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emptyend 14th Dec '12 1026 of 1316
1

In reply to jseth123, post #1025

FWIW, I'm not currently in clock-watching mode. I'm now thinking it more likely that the CPR reserves report will make an appearance before a deal is done - though that might still depend on whether full credit can be given for connectivity (and perhaps that is unlikely just yet?).

In short, though, nobody knows......

Either way, however, the news pipeline looks likely to have a fair slug of good stuff in it....

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extrader 14th Dec '12 1027 of 1316

Hi ee,

Some slippage to be expected on matters outwith (?) management control eg reserves report, but must admit to some disappointment that there's been no news on dividend possibilities, which is surely very much within their 'gift'.

But maybe Santa's not finished wrapping his parcel(s) yet !

ATB

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kenobi 14th Dec '12 1028 of 1316
2

But if , 

 I'm now thinking it more likely that the CPR reserves report will make an appearance before a deal is done

and yet,

There are no specific plans for an announcement outside of a normal release on other corporate issues

when will we even know what's in the report ?  

 Perhaps we won't actually find out until the connectivity theory is proven.  Perhaps the management are more convinced/bullish about this than they were at the results ?

K

 

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emptyend 15th Dec '12 1029 of 1316
1

In reply to kenobi, post #1028

and yet,

There are no specific plans for an announcement outside of a normal release on other corporate issues

when will we even know what's in the report ?  

 Perhaps we won't actually find out until the connectivity theory is proven.  Perhaps the management are more convinced/bullish about this than they were at the results ?

Indeed. That is, I think, the subtext to current events. The question of what the CPR has to say is looming large......

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peterg 15th Dec '12 1030 of 1316

In reply to kenobi, post #1028

Perhaps we won't actually find out until the connectivity theory is proven

Perhaps you would like to reword that a little? Otherwise we might have to wait quite a while. How about:

Perhaps we won't actually find out until the connectivity question is answered !


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MadDutch 16th Dec '12 1031 of 1316

I am getting fed up with the jam tomorrow attitude of the directors.

12 years is a long time to wait. Too long.

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tiswas 16th Dec '12 1032 of 1316
1

I am getting fed up with the jam tomorrow attitude of the directors.

12 years is a long time to wait. Too long.


That reminds me, is Isaac ok? Not heard from him recently.

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emptyend 16th Dec '12 1033 of 1316
3

In reply to MadDutch, post #1031

I am getting fed up with the jam tomorrow attitude of the directors.

Rarely have I read such rubbish!

It was, is, and always has been obvious that the company wouldn't monetise Vietnam until it was optimal to do so. The interests of directors in their role as shareholders dwarfs their interests as managers. I'd expect them to signal a distribution of some sort in the next few months, if they don't first do the deal I expect - management are just as keen on doing that as any shareholder is (apart from you, who was keen on seeing dividends well before it was prudent to consider paying any!).

I see no evidence whatsoever of a "jam tomorrow" attitude!

ee

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peterg 16th Dec '12 1034 of 1316
7

In reply to MadDutch, post #1031

12 years is a long time to wait. Too long.

Are you sure Isaac hasn't hacked your Stockopedia account, MD?

12 years ago you could buy 1 new Soco share for 31.5 (you would have had to buy 1 old share, 4 new shares, for 126p). With Friday's close of 368p that reperesents a compound return of 22.7%.

If that's jam, tomorrow, I want more!

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rhomboid1 16th Dec '12 1035 of 1316

In reply to peterg, post #1034

22.7 % compound... and that's before the end game !

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kenobi 17th Dec '12 1036 of 1316
8

Well I have some sympathy with MD myself, while on the one hand I would rather wait until conectivity can be proven, and they can sell up for a bumper price. On the other hand you have to wonder what the likelihood of that is.

The management were also pretty convinced that TGD would be the big one, but in the end that turned out to not work. So I for one would like to hear from the management what the plan is from here on in. They seem convinced and bullish about the connectivity, well what needs to happen to prove or disprove this theory, and how are they going to get the partners to agree to the work required to do this. If they cannot convince the reserves review people, why not ? And how are they plan to convince a buyer ??

I remember Jseth saying at the agm (and I hope I'm not mis quoting), that he didn't want H5 to become the new TGD, the new reason why they can't sell vietnamn, which might run for years. Well I feel the same about connectivity, I would like the management to explain what their plans are re this. so that if it's now another long stretch people can decide for themselves if they want to hold the stock and at least have a feeling of where we are going. It just seems that every time we reach the point we've long been waiting for, to monetise vietnam, there is some other glitch/delay/issue. And obviously, they need to say something about their thoughts on paying some kind of special divi, (or ongoing),

G




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