Let me first try to come at the broader issue of the current unrest in the Arab world from a political / stability perspective. As some posters know, my 'day job' involves, in part, keeping an eye on such things. Then I'll turn to some of the possible implications with regards to companies and O & G investment.
The situation is evolving so rapidly, that it's difficult to keep up - but then I am not the only one facing that problem. Obama, though better informed than I am, appears to have a similar problem!
It's important to note first, I think, that although there are superficial similarities to the protests throughout the region, they are not all fed by the same underlying issues and they're dealing with a pretty diverse collection of Governments, each of which is likely (or was likely) to respond in different ways.
Common Factors
Common factors include the following: Governments in power for a long time - e.g. Qaddafi since 1969, Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen for over 30 years, Husni Mubarak since Sadat's death in 1981 (but the military dominated governments since 1952). The Bahraini Prime Minister since 1971. Populations where the majority (in some cases an overwhelming majority) are young, under 30, and, therefore, often largely divorced from those in power. Often high levels of unemployment. Corruption. A failure of the regimes to open up a meaningful way for public participation in Government (although this is not quite the case with Bahrain). A state security / police structure that is (or was, in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia) perceived as being repressive - often rightly so. Often overt electoral fraud or a perception thereof, where elections took place, e.g., most recently, late last year, in Egypt and, to a lesser, extent, Bahrain.
Families and inheritance
There was enormous dissatisfaction at the way in which Presidents have sought to groom their children to take over - Egypt, Yemen, Libya and the beginning of it in Tunisia. And in Syria too, where Bashar Al Assad succeeded his father several years ago. Combine that with extensive corruption, and there's a real fury about the attempt to create hereditary Presidencies - although I think that the chances of that working anywhere are now gone. The 'proper' monarchies are different, and do have a genuine basis of support.
Diffferences?
Well, the roles of the armed forces vary.…
