Registered:
10/11/08
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Occupation: Consultant, Private Investor

Interests: Commodities, Economics, Geopolitics, Gold, International Stocks, Oil, Property, Stocks

Fantasy Fund: JPGH's Fund

About Me:

Started investing in late 2004, focus is on Oil and Gas companies as I know then best. Have made some very good gains on reliables like TLW, SIA, DNX, BG but lost a bit too of foolish punts and on silly spreadbets. 

The modest absolute gains made in 2005/2006/2007 were all lost when I threw too much new cash into market early on 2008 and more again towards Aug 2008, thinking the correction wasn't going to affect the Oil sectror. How wrong I was. Also had a day job that kept me away from my spreadbets that all seemed to go against me simultaneously. In short I lost a pile in 2008, recovered nearly all in 2009 but still smarting.

Still learning and also am beginning to diversify out of Oil into Mning.

BTW check out http://www.justin.tv/skitzonutter for video streaming of Beavis/Butthead without the pop videos....it still cracks me up....though I am probably a little on the old side for it now I just can't seem to move on to "loftier" Radio 4 type humour.


Investment Strategy

Build up a core holding in good solid performers, accumulating on weakness.

Do plenty of your own research to get to know the company.

Trawl the BB's to get the market mood amongst the PI's

Always go for a punt



JPGH's Latest Blogs

So, with Friday’s (Sept 9th 2011) announcement of a significant Zaedyus discovery what could this mean for investors in Tullow, Northern and Wessex? Note all analysis is based on info/opinion in public domain in an attempt to arrive at a $/bbl valuation of the discovery, apply some NAV risking and adjacent prospect “derisking” as appropriate. (i)          Zaedyus Only See link http://db.tt/jFa6z0y for a rough ‘n…

Not a discussion as such just a plea/request..... Stockopedia has >16000 subscribers now but only approx 120 persons show on the weekly ratings for the fastasy fund competition. We can do better than that!!! http://www.stockopedia.com/fantasy-funds/ I realise its only a bit of fun but its a nice bit of fun and also can point investors in a certain direction in search of a certain sector/company…

The question on a lot of people's mind is as follows - has the share price for Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) got ahead of itself? To consider this question, the spreadsheet here and summarised below looks at the Sea Lion valuation and its value expressed in terms of the RKH share price. Please note that the analysis does not account for upside nor any other RKH…

Kurdistan focussed Oil and Gas Company. Some minor assets in Algeria awaiting final disposal. (i) Background • Quick Summary :-http://tinyurl.com/GKP-Flash-Summary • Website :- www.gulfkeystone.com • Market Cap (25 May 2011) :- £1105M • No Shares :- 762 million • Current SP (25 May 2011) : - 145p(ii) Operations:- http://www.gulfkeystone.com/operations.aspx • Algeria (http://www.gulfkeystone.com/middle-east.aspx) assets. Algeria effectively worth zip as GKP are exiting with some liabilities that…

Short title body here for now. Just need to dump in a Broker Note update from Fox Davies Despite the delay in starting production, the target price has increased from £0.25/share to £0.28, primarily due to the higher gold prices but also modestly assisted by a weaker sterling exchange rate. Background: Small AIM miner focused on Pakrut Gold Mine project in Tajikstan. Website: http://www.kryso.com/default.cfm About…



JPGH's Latest Comments

I have divsted 90% of my Soco holdings several weeks ago (and reinvested proceeds somewhere else). Am also disappointed with TGT production levels (granted the netbacks are very good and the agreeed/negotiated $6/bbl premium to Brent for contracted sale to BP is also very good) but thought that TGT performance warranted some more explanation. Will continue to hold my now very small position here though…

Superb news for Tullow Oil (and even better for Africa Oil). Maybe this is the game changer to link Uganda, South Sudan, Omo (Ethiopia) and this probable new basin around Lake Turkana. JPGH

A real multi billion barrel stand alone commercial oil discovery close to major oil and gas infrastructure and close to key markets, followed by successful appraisal programme (and not wet gas, subject to actual confirmation, the alleged discovery that is) and attracting Big Oil interest is just not worthy of a positive post !! JPGH

Seeing as you highlighted the valuation Pro then consider this.... By using a 12% discount factor for putting potential value on a field that GKP cannot develop themselves and hence will sell on, when the only known buyers are Big Oil (IOCs and semi-NOCs) who value projects, even in risky old Kurdistan, at somewhere between 6% (Chinese, Korean oil companies) and 10%?(Super Majors) Cannacord are…

Pro, why would IOM "offer" Exxon something nice? Other IOCs would cry foul and demand same or cancel their own legally questionable contracts (no oil and gas law in place so legal status of all Contracts awarded by whoever in Iraq/Kurdistan remain questionable). No, Exxon, who have played ALL these scenarios out and KNOW the final outcome have allowed this Kurdistan Contract situation to be…

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