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Nick Ray's Latest Blogs

If you wanted to put a trailing stop under your stocks to allow them room to be volatile but to get you out before real trouble appears, where would you put it?  For many people -20% seems to be a 'safe' choice. It is away from the day-to-day noise and by the time you are -20% down it feels as if any further would start…

This website provides a very useful summary of a stock's performance in terms of three numbers: the Quality rank, Value rank and Momentum rank. However my testing suggests that the Value rank needs to be treated with caution. These plots show LR (Likelihood Ratio) against rank. Values of LR greater than 1 indicate a probability greater than 0.5 that the stock will have a positive…



Nick Ray's Latest Comments

K3 Business Technology (LON:KBT) are a reseller for SYSPRO, Sage and Microsoft Dynamics. They add their own customizations and modules, which is normal for resellers of these products. They've used a few buzz words in their descriptions, but the bottom line is that they have a solid business model here.

One key trick which Ed didn't mention, and which also answers the question "when to sell a winner" is rebalancing. So for example, when a stock is up by +25% trim it back to the original stake. This way you do not exit good performers, but you do lock in some profits. (The "hunter" in Ed's piece does the opposite for losers by topping them…

A delayed trade can't stop you out. It's already happened some time in the past.

Ed's extra data allows us to do some calculations. He says that the top SR decile are up by an average of 9% in the YTD. But what if we chose at random from the whole index? The FT all-share index is up about 4% in the same period. So it looks as though the extra 5% is due to the selectivity of the Stock…

If you were stopped out last Wednesday afternoon around 16:08 then in that particular case it was a single large automatic trade which caused the drop from 310 to 300. It is possible he only intended to scoop up all the bids at 310 but a largish "O" trade just before him took some of the 310 bids just before his trade was filled and…

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