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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Death or (um ... ) Death Apparently the ancient Babylonians would, at the start of each year, promise to pay off their debts and return stuff that they’d borrowed, like the lawnmower (or, as we would refer to it, the neighbor’s goat). As we saw in On Incentives, Agency and Aqueducts  they had good reason to be cautious as the punishment for theft was death.…

Timarr's Latest Comments

As John Lee is a sitting member of the Lords he has to declare his interests, including investments: most recent column in the FT explained his reasoning on AIM:"Frankly most Aim stocks are of little interest to me — “hope and prayer” stories, near start-ups or semi-shells, questionable overseas flotations, exploration or biotech businesses — not the established, profitable, UK dividend-paying companies on which I…

Hi Damian Research suggests that the best performing stocks are those with high yield and low payout ratio (or high dividend cover as we like to put it on this side of the pond): There's quite a lot on this and other high yield return research in this Tweedy Browne paper: Tim

Ah ... got it. So at what point will you have sufficient data to justify the launch of the StockRanks Fundamental Tracker? :-) In all seriousness this does raise a whole host of issues. I'm sure, human nature being what it is, most people use StockRank to aid in individual stock purchase and sale decisions - and will doubtless suffer from the classic biases as…

Hi Ed I'm struggling to understand the timescales here. I think that this is a retrospective analysis of companies based on their current Stock Ranks? If that's correct then is it not the case that all you may be measuring is the fact that currently good cheap companies are good and cheap, currently? So if, say, in 5 years time you repeated the exercise you…

I think the subtle point about Gervais's presentation is not that he thinks AIM will be the best performing exchange, but that he expects the best performing companies to come from AIM. The thesis (and I missed the beginning of the presentation on account of needing a coffee and sugar infusion) is that the outperformance of large caps that we've seen over a couple of…

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