7 mins ago


Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

I like Fevertree but I really, really don't get the economic moat. Any company that can generate growth like this will also generate competition, it's inevitable. So how do they defend their earnings: is their brand really strong enough? The trouble with companies like this, on high ratings, is that the odds end up skewed against you as an investor: sometimes it turns out that…

Just on IPOs, I've heard a couple of people say that there's a bit of a rush on to beat the Brexit referendum. I assume that's because sellers figure that if we get a leave vote then the markets will be shut to new entrants while the dust settles. Normally investing in IPOs is a mug's game because the insiders have control of timing, but…

Well as they've already taken the worst case costs, that all failing units need to be replaced, it doesn't matter in a financial sense if "more and more" do come to light. The investment issue is more about reputational risk and management competence: is this an unlucky (albeit large) one-off or is it the forewarning death rattle song of a gassed canary? No small company…

HI EdCouple of things. Your example NAPS stock screen appears to link through to the 2015 NAPS article, which may not be what you intended. And Hilton Food seems to have diversified into the Telco sector, which seems unlikely at first blush ...Of course by moving away from smaller stocks you're reducing the possible impact of the small cap bias, it'll be interesting to see…

Hi Ian Well the evidence suggests that most people aren't very good at making investing decisions. Some of this at least (some people argue all of this) is due to behavioural biases. There are countless issues but, for example, people tend to be biased into buying what they've heard of over what they haven't heard of and there are some really peculiar issues around stock…

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