Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

SafeCharge International (LON:SCH) is controlled by NorthenStar Investments, who hold 66% of the company. NorthenStar is a Teddy Sagi vehicle, so a decision to invest is largely a decision about him. He's also the man behind Playtech (LON:PTEC). It's hard to see where Safecharge's business moat is, the payments business is a pretty low margin affair but they seem to be making a decent turn,…

Remarkable first half trading update from LSL Property Services (LON:LSL), who run estate agents across the country and surveying services, etc. Firstly they announce first half figures are ahead:LSL expects to report strong interim results on 2nd August in-line with the Board's expectations and ahead of the same period last year, delivering growth across all major revenue lines and demonstrating profit growth in both the…

ARM Holdings (LON:ARM) is unique in four ways. Firstly its brand of low power processors are uniquely suited to mobile devices. Secondly their low capital licensing model allows them to scale without significant investment. Thirdly, their deep integration with the processor fabricators makes them extremely hard to replace, because of the third-party investment in ARM specific processes. Finally they are the UK's only global IT…

I'm not sure that "blame" is the correct phrase, but given that the UK has just entered a period of considerable economic and political uncertainty it's very hard to believe that the acquisition of ARM Holdings (LON:ARM) isn't related to the company being at a multi-year low price in yen terms. Perhaps a better phrase would be "unintended consequence"? I would be very surprised if…

As regards housebuilders, we know that the market is supply constrained so as long as the banks are able and willing to lend - and the BoE has already taken steps to ensure liquidity - then people will carry on buying as long as they can afford to do so. Brexit doesn't appear to have shaken confidence in the short term. In the longer term…

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