Mon 7:08am


Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Death or (um ... ) Death Apparently the ancient Babylonians would, at the start of each year, promise to pay off their debts and return stuff that they’d borrowed, like the lawnmower (or, as we would refer to it, the neighbor’s goat). As we saw in On Incentives, Agency and Aqueducts  they had good reason to be cautious as the punishment for theft was death.…

Timarr's Latest Comments

I think the subtle point about Gervais's presentation is not that he thinks AIM will be the best performing exchange, but that he expects the best performing companies to come from AIM. The thesis (and I missed the beginning of the presentation on account of needing a coffee and sugar infusion) is that the outperformance of large caps that we've seen over a couple of…

I enjoyed Keith's presentation too: I'm not sure you can really do that job without a degree of surplus self-confidence! FWIW I though his stock selections were excellent in terms of quality, and I like the principle (which I try to adhere to myself) of buying such stocks when they or (better still) the market has a setback. But I don't use collective investments so…

One note on Katie Potts' presentation - which I found fascinating although, admittedly, she's not the greatest speaker in the world. She made the point that Herald has made outsized returns over the past 20 years by largely investing in small, UK based tech companies. The UK is a sweet spot in terms of a combination of entrepreneurial expertise (unlike, say, Japan) and reasonable pricing…

Mallet is the subject of a bid from Stanley Gibbons that went unconditional a few days ago.

I appreciate, of course, that equating investors to psychopaths is likely to trigger a visceral response amongst many readers. That's not the point I'm making: the problem is that there is no evidence to back up the assertion that psychopathic tendencies are beneficial to investors. If anything the evidence suggests the opposite.Firstly I'm not questioning the link between management success and psychopathy. The types of…

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