Registered:
15/06/09
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


Blog

A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…



Timarr's Latest Comments

The genesis of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis goes back to the late 19th century when Leon Walras decided to make economics a science. He based his economic science on the latest scientific theory of the time, which happened to be the First Law of Thermodynamics (the one that states that in a closed system everything moves into equilibrium). He then made the simplifying assumption that…

The IoT is one of our favourite areas for security hacks at the moment. At our conference last year one of our speakers brought the house down by demonstrating how he could hack your home network via your iKettle and then, having stolen your identity, how he could get it to boil dry and burn down your house. But my favourite is the vibrator with…

Hi EdExcellent article, as usual. I have a question on your comment:Personally, I think it’s time to give these indices the boot. It’s better to benchmark against an equally weighted index or a benchmark based more closely on your own investment universe.This is something I've been looking at recently and I'm struggling to find any appropriate equal weight index; do you, or anyone else, know…

Hi Graham Yes, the potential oversupply of student properties is something I have wondered about. With relatively recent IPO's it's always worth looking for the reason, but the significant stake held by the Watkin Jones family mitigates against the belief that the owners were looking for a quick exit. But as bestace has remarked that's probably a long way off and even if it wasn't…

If Watkin Jones was valued at around TBV then it would be offering a yield of about 20%. That kind of yield only occurs when the company is about to cut its dividend but here we have a company that has net cash on the balance sheet and with highly visible forward earnings that cover the dividend about twice. The point is that they're not…

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