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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

In what way is it superior? Money has three basic functions - it's a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. I can't see that Bitcoin offers any advantage in any of those categories. In fact its main advantage seems to be that it's hard to track and easier to move around than cash, so it's a favoured tool of…

Hi cig - agreed. A permissioned ledger with authorised consensus participants is probably the most likely short term approach. I'd say that any business that relies on inefficiencies in inter-networking is a likely target as well - so money remittance services, for instance, are a sitting duck for disintermediation by distributed ledger technology. timarr

Visanet can do 40,000 to 50,000 transactions per second,, Bitcoin 40,000 to 50,000 transactions per week and it's hampered from changing this by its own lack of governance. Cryptocurrencies may become successful, but Bitcoin is a deadend niche.timarr

That's describing a distributed ledger system, aka "Blockchain", the technology underpinning Bitcoin. The genius of the system design is that it allows participants who don't trust each other to trust the data on the ledger (the database of transactions). Although everyone treats the Bitcoin ledger as immutable (i.e you can trust it) that's only true if an attacker can't control over 50% of the network.…

If you have a significant portfolio already (at least £100K) and you understand both risk and volatility and are comfortable with them then you should pick the combination of stocks and funds that gives you the risk profile you want to achieve. If you don't know what the previous paragraph means you aren't ready to invest actively and you should invest in passive funds -…

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