Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Death or (um ... ) Death Apparently the ancient Babylonians would, at the start of each year, promise to pay off their debts and return stuff that they’d borrowed, like the lawnmower (or, as we would refer to it, the neighbor’s goat). As we saw in On Incentives, Agency and Aqueducts  they had good reason to be cautious as the punishment for theft was death.…

Timarr's Latest Comments

Barber and Odean's research indicated that the shares that people sold went on to outperform the ones that they bought - suggesting that their decision making was biased, probably by loss aversion - people don't like to take a loss, so sell winners (to lock in the gain) and keep losers (to avoid realising a loss). That's acting counter to momentum effects but it's also…

Hi Ed I sympathise, I really do ... but you're trying to do something very difficult, to make the academic research on investing available to a non-academic user base, most of whom will struggle with statistical concepts and some of whom just like the idea of a nice simple number that obviates the need to do any fundamental research. I include myself in both groups…

Hi Ed As I'm sure you know, when given the freedom to do so people tend to choose stocks that they've heard of, it's a familiarity effect. I suspect that if you allow an investor free reign to choose any stocks from the SR90+ rated group then they won't choose randomly, so a social score would be very interesting. If investors are biased towards a…

As John Lee is a sitting member of the Lords he has to declare his interests, including investments: most recent column in the FT explained his reasoning on AIM:"Frankly most Aim stocks are of little interest to me — “hope and prayer” stories, near start-ups or semi-shells, questionable overseas flotations, exploration or biotech businesses — not the established, profitable, UK dividend-paying companies on which I…

Hi Damian Research suggests that the best performing stocks are those with high yield and low payout ratio (or high dividend cover as we like to put it on this side of the pond): There's quite a lot on this and other high yield return research in this Tweedy Browne paper: Tim

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