Registered:
15/06/09
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


Blog

A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…



Timarr's Latest Comments

I still can't work out whether Photo-Me International (LON:PHTM) is a great opportunity or not, but I do note that you can now take a selfie and submit this for a passport re-issue. I did it myself earlier in the year, had new passport in hand in 72 hours. Obviously if the booths can take some of the manual pain out of the process then…

The half year accounts show net debt at £147 million compared to a current market cap of about £234 million. There's also a £78 million pension deficit. I like Devro (LON:DVO) in general, but those numbers are, as Buffett himself would say, akin to driving with a dagger strapped to the steering wheel. If they can sell their new manufacturing capacity at a decent margin…

The numbers from Constellation Healthcare Technologies Inc (LON:CHT) do look good but the increase in receivables and the tax rate look anomalous. As the main rationale of the business is to consolidate smaller providers it's to be expected that the numbers will be difficult to interpret from year to year but there's no explanation or justification in the commentary and without that it's hard to…

Paul I agree with you, people who are suggesting Green plundered BHS pre-2008 are talking nonsense. Which is why I never have. Neither has the W&P committee. They do suggest he has a moral responsibility to fund the pension deficit, given the way BHS bankrolled his businesses back in the early part of the century. Of course, back in 2008 lots of companies had pension…

Paul, I don't see that hindsight has anything to do with this narrative. Interest rates have been very low which is a problem for all companies with pension schemes. Most have resolved that problem by pumping in more cash. BHS didn't. BHS's pension deficit ballooned after 2008, as interest rates dropped. But, so did everyone else's. Most companies took action to resolve those deficits, BHS…

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