Registered:
15/06/09
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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)


Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


Blog

A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…



Timarr's Latest Comments

Know nothing about the sector or Bango, but it might be worth noting that under the forthcoming PSD2 regulations, due in January and applicable to all countries in the EEA, the maximum single DCB payment is €50 and the total monthly is €300. Above that the MNO's need to get themselves regulated, which is the intent of the restrictions and which most would probably not…

Well, in his own words: "As a promoter of price transparency, we are a direct threat to Dignity’s incumbent position as a high-priced funeral chain. Fundamentally, we think Dignity will not be able to maintain expected pricing levels going forward and as such is overvalued." That sounds like he has a vested interest in anything that would affect Dignity negatively. Which doesn't mean that the…

Hi Paul In terms of payment companies the simple reason why they exist is to connect everything together. If I put my card in a terminal in a retailer in Spain then that retailer sends the message to a payment company (usually known as an acquirer) which then routes the message to the scheme (Visa, Mastercard, etc) who route the card to my bank (the…

Hi cig Absolutely true, it's at least partly to do with habit and the power of brands, but these types of companies keep on churning out earnings increases year after year. I remember reading somewhere about the positive feedback effects they can generate because of their ability to recycle earnings into marketing. On the other hand, I wouldn't want to invest in Diageo (LON:DGE) anyway,…

To put another way, a PE of 40 implies that at constant earnings it will take the company 40 years to earn equivalent to the market capitalisation. The long-term historical PE in most markets is around 15. To justify a PE ratio much ahead of that you have to have strong conviction about future earnings growth. Zweig's approach was to look for growth, essentially it's…

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