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Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

Thank you for the kind comments: I've been on sabbatical due to ... well, life mainly :) Restarting soon. On shipoffrogs comment - yes, I agree that you can't constantly re-evaluate, but the important thing is that you do so periodically. There's some decent research (I'd have to go dig it out, but I think it was Thaler and deBondt) which suggests that the more…

Although the evidence for individual behavioural biases is compelling there's no grand unifying theory of how they fit together. But I'm not sure conservatism and the representative bias are necessarily contradictory. Conservatism says that people will ignore new information and carry on doing what they previously did. The representative bias says that if the price has gone up (or down) previously people will expect it…

The point is that if you're on minimum wage and you're docked 15 minutes pay for 1 minute late that can take you under the minimum wage. And if it does it's not a question of whether it's morally acceptable or not, it's illegal. It's not obvious to me that Boohoo.Com (LON:BOO) has actually done anything illegal, but it's perhaps noteworthy that they're now high…

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