Occupation: Blogger

Interests: Stocks

About Me:

I'm a UK based technologist (career) and psychologist (academic) with a long-term interest in financial markets, with a particular emphasis (and skill) in how to not make money out of them. When I'm not working or blogging I'm to be found childminding, walking the dog or hiding in the garden shed with a good book :)

Investment Strategy

Long-term, boring, stock based investing


A Sideways Look at Psychology and Finance

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Timarr's Latest Blogs

Confirm Ye Not Here's what ought to be a really boring idea - we need scientists in general and psychologists and economists in particular to stop hypothesising after results are known (HARKing, geddit?). Instead they need to state what they're looking for before they conduct their experiments because otherwise they cherrypick the results they find to confirm hypotheses they never previously had.The underlying problem is…

Back to the Future As you'll know the Psy-Fi Blog spends a lot of time pointing out to a (largely disinterested) audience of investors that there's a huge amount of psychological research out there that we can use to guide our investing behavior. In fact there are vast reams of the stuff, far too much for me to ever even summarize, let alone analyse. But…

One of the more thoughtful regulators around is Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England whose speech “ The Dog and the Frisbee[1]” from 2012 remains the touchstone for anyone wanting to appreciate the reasons that modern economics has made a mess out of understanding the real world.  To boil the whole thing down to a single statement: you can’t control a complex system with…

It’s an axiom of standard economics that you don’t get above average returns without taking above average risks. No risk, no reward.  It’s an appealing idea, an extension of the entrepreneur's creed: you don't become successful without taking chances.  It’s a meme that’s gone viral, an idea that permeates discussions about investment, drives hard headed analysis and leads us to celebrate the risk taking achievers…

“I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do..... They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four…

Timarr's Latest Comments

Or in other words, they're too stupid to know they're stupid. D-K sufferers never adjust their view of themselves regardless of feedback - so, for instance, consistently being in the bottom quartile in exam results never changes their opinion that they're better than most of their peers. Unsurprisingly they're terrible investors but come across with utter certainty. One useful way of recognising D-K on bulletin…

Hi Jane As I recall, I received and sent genuine internal messages before I ever subscribed for anything, so I think anyone can register and send such messages. But if you want a fast response probably better to contact Ed and co directly, they've always been quicker to respond on that channel than through messages posted on discussion threads. timarr

Most card payment transactions ultimately flow through Visa or Mastercard (or Amex or Discover): they're the glue that connects the merchants to the cardholder's bank. So if I stick my card in a terminal in Thailand then that is sent to a payments process or acquirer who routes it to the appropriate scheme (e.g. Visa or Mastercard)  who routes it to my bank. May banks…

Freedom of speech is part of our democratic rights - and just because the majority has expressed a different opinion doesn't give them the right to silence dissenting voices. And, in passing, I note that Nigel Farage was very clear before the referendum that if Leave lost he would carry on campaigning. More practically the UK in a Changing Europe think tank has published a…

Worth remembering that the collapse in 08/09 wasn't entirely due to the environment. Their VC owners loaded them with debt before launching on AIM so that when the recession hit they weren't in any position to respond. Management did a remarkable job just keeping them going. In a future recession I'd expect them to be hit hard, but not to see the business itself under…

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