Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 25th June 2026) - HFD, ING, MOON, VLX, III, EZJ, AMS, TIME

Graham Neary — Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:19:15 +0100

The big overnight mover is the oil price which officially returned to pre-war levels. The spot price for Brent crude has fallen to $72.50.

Although talks between the US and Iran still have a long way to go, the reopening of Hormuz has massively increased supply. I think we’ll be able to refer to the Iran situation and the oil price much less frequently in these preambles from now on!

Overnight market movements:

The FTSE is set to open down 0.3% at 10,425
Samp;P 500 is up 0.6% at 7,405
Brent crude (August) is down 1.8% at $72.50/bbl
Gold is down 0.3% at $3,987/oz
Bitcoin is up 1.2% at $61,700

Roland Head joins me today.

Signing out now, thank you.

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)

RNS

Summary

Our view (Author)

3i (LON:III) (£23bn | SR54)

AGM and portfolio update

Action LFL sales growth was 3.3% year-to-date (21 June). New store openings of 105 are on track for 2026. The remainder of the PE portfolio “continues to demonstrate good momentum in line with our expectations”.

AMBER/GREEN ↑ (Roland) [no section below]
3i previously reported Action LFL sales growth of 3.6% for the year to 29...

Bodycote: quality, inflection, and growth at a reasonable price

Dr James Fox — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 16:12:38 +0100

Dr James Fox wrote:

Like many of us here in the Stockopedia community, quantitative metrics are the foundation of my investment strategy – everything from screening for opportunities and stress-testing my ideas.

But I also run thematic views alongside the numbers. For me, the combination has led me toward several years of successful investment in AI hardware and infrastructure – long may that continue.

Another is a quieter preference for industrials with very little AI disintermediation risk -- businesses like Bodycote (LON:BOY), where heat treatment requires physical furnaces and metallurgical expertise. It’s also a business that leverages customer relationships built over decades. No Claude algorithm is replacing that.

Right now, the proposition looks inviting. It’s not a stock I own yet, but it’s been on my watchlist for some time.

The Pitch

Bodycote shares are now trading where they were before Apollo Global Management made an approach for the company – the parties ended talks over a £1.52 billion takeover proposal on 5 June. Cleansed of the takeover premium, the value proposition is looking more attractive as the margin of safety returns.

Bodycote is the world's largest provider of outsourced heat treatment and thermal processing – several times larger than its nearest peer in...

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 24th June 2026) - VTU, LIO, SGRO, PHP, AVG, BKG, CAV

Graham Neary — Wed, 24 Jun 2026 06:16:52 +0100

Graham Neary wrote:

Heatwave: the Met Office says there is “a risk of serious illness or danger to life” over the next few days. There’s a Red weather warning for London and surrounding areas, including parts of Wales. A maximum temperature of 39 degrees is possible today:

I made it to a big box retailer just before it shut yesterday evening, and picked up a tall, cheap, oscillating fan that resembles a skinny Dalek. About 90% of customers in the shop were there for the same reason, and supplies were rapidly diminishing! My new friend should be a wonderful boost to my productivity (and will therefore be included on my tax return).

Alan Greenspan passed away on Monday, aged 100. One of the first times I came across Mr. Greenspan was when I read the book Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal as a teenager. First published in 1966, it included several chapters written by Greenspan. I thought he was a genius! For example, he wrote this in a chapter called Gold and Economic Freedom:

"...prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened...

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 23rd June 2026) - RFX, FTC, HERC, BPM, TEP

Graham Neary — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 06:15:28 +0100

Graham Neary wrote:

Next PM: there is the faint prospect of a leadership contest within Labour, but this seems to be primarily for the sake of having a leadership contest. There are no contenders with momentum and widespread support, other than Andy Burnham.

Tech sell-off: after its initial pop to $201 per share, Space Exploration Technologies (NSQ:SPCX) has been on the decline in recent trading sessions and fell 16% yesterday to $154.60 (still above its IPO price of $135). Elon Musk's net worth is bouncing around by hundreds of billions of dollars daily:

Alphabet (NSQ:GOOGL) also had a tough day yesterday, falling 5%.

Overall, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.3%, and general weakness in the equity markets has continued overnight in emerging markets. The Korean Kospi index is down 8%.

Overnight market movements:

The FTSE is set to open down 1% at 10,335
Samp;P 500 is down 1% at 7,400
Brent crude is down 1.3% at $76.90/bbl
Gold is down 1.7% at $4,120/oz
Bitcoin is down 1.7% at $63,340

Roland Head joins me today.

I'm afraid that's all we have time for today - we'll be back in the...

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 22nd June 2026) - SYNT, EAAS, EZJ, TRT, TRD, OCDO

Graham Neary — Mon, 22 Jun 2026 06:15:36 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
Keir Starmer departure? The probability of Andy Burnham becoming PM this year has risen to 93% at Polymarket after a weekend which saw speculation intensify that Keir Starmer is going to announce plans for his departure. It is even possible that Starmer may make an announcement this morning. CONFIRMED (9:35): Keir Starmer announces that he will resign.

An example of the type of change that could be introduced by a Burnham premiership would be greater intervention in the utilities sector, i.e. water and energy.

Here’s the chart for the FTSE Gas Water amp; Multi-Utilities Index, which includes the likes of National Grid, United Utilities amp; Severn Trent. It has been under pressure since the Makerfield constituency was opened up for Burnham’s return to parliament in mid-May:

Iran talks: on Saturday, Iran said that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz after military action by Israel in Lebanon. But Indian tankers did make it through the Strait over the weekend. Negotiations between the US and Iran for a permanent peace deal continue, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.

Overnight market movements:

The FTSE is set to open up 0.2% at 10,370
Samp;P 500 is unchanged...

The Week Ahead (22nd -26th June): Labour leadership challenge

Graham Neary — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 16:31:08 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
With the US and Iran expected to begin negotiating a permanent peace deal shortly (as soon as fighting stops in Lebanon), let’s focus this week’s edition of The Week Ahead on something else.

Labour leadership challenge: Keir Starmer remains PM but Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has set up the imminent threat of a leadership challenge with potentially far-reaching financial and economic consequences.

Burnham confidently addressed his supporters in a speech on Friday morning, but did not go so far as to directly challenge Keir Starmer.

He may not have to, as the majority of the cabinet are thought to already believe that his rise to power is inevitable - but are not yet willing to force the matter.

In a call on Friday, Keir Starmer is quoted as saying “I’m not going to walk away”. Bloomberg reports that Burnham plans to speak to Starmer in the next few days.

The financial implications of a Burnham premiership will be analysed in great detail in the weeks and months ahead. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have separately argued to their clients that Burnham would break existing fiscal rules. Higher spending would in turn delay interest rate cuts, as the Bank...

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 19th June 2026) - PPH, REC, MRK, SYNT, LBG, CFYN

Graham Neary — Fri, 19 Jun 2026 06:11:24 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
UK politics: the prediction market Polymarket is increasingly influential in mainstream media reporting. The latest UK politics predictions there include:

90% chance Andy Burnham is the next PM in 2026, now that he has won the Makerfield by-election.
Only a 6% chance there is no “next PM” in 2026.

Or in sport:

14% chance that England win the World Cup (the most likely outcome is thought to be quarter-final elimination, with a 24% probability).
56% chance that Scotland are eliminated in Round of 32.

Betfair Exchange has generally been my preferred venue for checking odds, but the sheer variety of events that are available on Polymarket is very impressive!

Bank of England: there was no change to rates at the Bank of England yesterday, as expected. Two of the nine members of the MPC wanted an immediate rate hike to 4%.

Overnight market movements:

The FTSE is set to open down 0.25% at 10,370
Samp;P 500 is down 0.4% at 7,465
Brent crude is up 0.8% at $80.50/bbl
Gold is down 1.7% at $4,140/oz
Bitcoin is down 0.5% at $62,800
Calling it a day there, thank you. Have a great weekend!

WEBINAR - The NAPS Portfolio at half-time - and how the rules are best adapted to the USA and Europe

Edward Croft — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 15:27:22 +0100
Edward Croft wrote:
We ran a webinar on Thursday evening (watch the replay here) - it's a “half time” review of the NAPS Portfolio - the No-Admin-Portfolio-System I’ve been publishing for the last 11½ years. But the webinar study grew into something more than a mid-year progress update.

Over the last couple of weeks we’ve run one of the largest simulations we’ve ever done on the NAPS portfolio rules: not just for the UK, but across the US and 14 European markets too, using our archive data right back to 2015, after real-world costs - spreads, commission, stamp duty, the lot.

We've taken the core rules, and changed one rule at a time to watch what would happen.

Some of what came back genuinely surprised me. Here’s a quick taster.

Where the NAPS stands at half-time

First, the score (yes it's the World Cup). The NAPS has gained 13.0% so far in 2026 - that’s 10.6% of capital growth plus another 2.4% in ordinary and special dividends. The FTSE All-Share has returned 7.0% over the same stretch. So we’re running at roughly double the index, and dividends are doing real work.

What I find more instructive than the headline is the spread underneath it. Seplat Energy (LON:SEPL) is up 86%, CMC...

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 18th June 2026) - TGP, DUKE, WATR, TBLD, XPS, WTB, SNX, TMO

Graham Neary — Thu, 18 Jun 2026 06:16:55 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
Bank of England: no change is expected to UK rates today, with the decision due at midday. Rates are expected to stay at 3.75% but it would be really surprising if everyone on the MPC agreed with this decision. Watch out for dissent on the 9-member committee.

For context, UK inflation numbers published yesterday gave an annual inflation rate at 2.8%, matching the prior month’s reading. While this is still higher than the 2% target, the figure was below market expectations (3%) and is the lowest level for over a year.

Federal Reserve: the US central bank published a decision yesterday, keeping rates unchanged as expected.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

It’s a similar story to the UK: inflation is too high, but there isn’t much appetite for rate hikes...

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 17th June 2026) - PZC, HSP, SNWS, AO., GAW, CGS, BBSN, LIKE

Graham Neary — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 06:16:23 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
Iran: The price of a barrel of oil has fallen by another c. $4 since yesterday, with a peace memorandum due to be signed in two days. The memo has been seen by Bloomberg News and includes the following points:

An immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Undertakings to negotiate and reach a final agreement within 60 days.
The US to lift the naval blockade and Iran to allow merchant ships to pass through.
$300bn of financing for Iran, for rehabilitation and economic development.
The ending of all types of sanctions against Iran.
Iran will never produce nuclear weapons.

In summary: the conflict appears to be at an end.

SpaceX: the market cap of Space Exploration Technologies (NSQ:SPCX) was approaching $3 trillion at one point yesterday, overtaking Amazon and Microsoft and becoming the fourth-biggest US stock. It closed the day at $201.80, up an impressive 49% from its IPO price.

Yesterday was also important for the stock as it was the first day that options went live for it. 1.8 million contracts were traded, easily creating a new record for the volume of contracts...

Sabre Insurance: a big yield with a growth twist (and the risks to watch)

Roland Head — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:46:25 +0100
Roland Head wrote:
Insurance stocks can generate attractive returns and reliable cash flows – just ask Warren Buffett. But these specialist financials aren’t without risk, so in my experience it’s wise to focus on companies with proven financial strength and underwriting discipline.

In this Stock Pitch I’m going to take a look at niche motor insurer Sabre Insurance (LON:SBRE) and explain why I think this company offers an attractive mix of strength, discipline and growth potential.

Share price at the time of publication: 165p
Market cap: £408m

Disclosure: at the time of publication, Roland has no position in SBRE.

Source: Sabre Insurance website June 2026

The Pitch

Motor insurance is a ruthlessly competitive sector that’s exposed to macroeconomic pressures. Investors were reminded of this when even UK sector leader Admiral saw its profits halve in 2022. Others fared much worse.

Sabre sidesteps the bear pit of competing solely on price by focusing on more profitable and less competitive sub-segments within the overall motor market. These include “high-premium, high-margin policies” for riskier car drivers, plus coverage for taxis and motorcycles.

The business sells policies through brokers and directly through its own brands,...

Didn’t buy XP Power? 13 potential high return bowls to consider now

Mark Simpson — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 13:59:31 +0100
Mark Simpson wrote:
As subscribers are well aware, Momentum is a powerful driver of stock market returns, and one we take seriously at Stockopedia. There are two sides to the Momentum coin:

Mean reversion: The first is a long-term mean reversion in share prices. Investors forget the power of capitalism at their peril. As management and shareholders are incentivised to turn around poor-performing businesses, while the successful face increasing competitive threats. This tends to be reflected in a reversal of share prices over periods of around three years.
Underreaction: However, over shorter periods, 6 months to a year, winners tend to keep on winning, and losers tend to keep on losing. When a business starts on a medium-term trajectory, investors are slow to update their priors. It is common market knowledge that companies issuing “ahead” statements tend to see these repeated and that “profits warnings tend to occur in threes.”

When these effects align, they can be a powerful force, and many approaches aim to combine them, such as the Stockopedia Turnaround QM strategy. Quants are in on it, too, and research papers highlight how momentum strategies can be improved by avoiding “stale momentum”; stocks that have been rising for so long that corporate mean reversion starts to...

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 16th June 2026) - GMS, W7L, RAT, TAM, IHC, STEM, IGR, EMAN

Graham Neary — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 06:16:37 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
Iran: there’s been genuine progress, although it remains difficult to quantify as the text of the US-Iran agreement has not been published yet. A key provision is that the Strait of Hormuz will be open for 60 days, allowing negotiations and the fragile ceasefire to continue. The Strait is not currently open for business.

Early last week, Brent crude oil (for August delivery) reached a high of $98. As I type this, it’s below $83. There’s still a gap to fill, to reach pre-war levels of $60-70, but it’s progress.

Japan: I note that the famous “widow-maker” Japan trade, which involves shorting their government bonds (JGBs), continues to perform well.

Here’s the Japanese bond yield. A rising yield means that the value of the underlying bonds is falling:

This is even a trade that I temporarily sat in, about ten years ago. Unfortunately, its reputation as a widow-maker was not without justification: JGBs were remarkably resilient for a remarkably long time.

But that technical fact didn’t stop thousands of traders from betting that JGBs would collapse. Their (or perhaps I should say “our”, as I was one of them) reasoning was impeccable. Japanese rates...

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 15th June 2026) - BKS, LUCE, TMG, PEEL, AEP, IQE, TIG

Roland Head — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 06:05:39 +0100
Roland Head wrote:
Good morning. Markets are expected to rise today, as it seems the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) is back on again.

The US President announced a deal with Iran on Sunday that will extend the current ceasefire by 60 days and see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz for toll-free commercial traffic. In return, Iran will receive some sanction relief and undertake not to develop nuclear weapons.

The thornier topic of the Islamic Republic’s 9,000kg stockpile of enriched uranium has been kicked down the road for future talks, according to press reports.

Iran’s regime has also survived this conflict intact and we might argue that Trump’s original pledge to deliver an “unconditional surrender” appears to have been watered down somewhat. Even so, this looks like good news for markets and for the wider global economy. Assuming traffic gradually starts to flow from the Strait, we should hopefully see commodity bottlenecks and inflationary pressures ease over the coming months.

Of course, to date the ceasefire has seen numerous military acts by both Iran and the US, so the current deal may not bring complete peace. There could be a period of uncertainty before commercial activity in the...

The Week Ahead (15-19 June): SpaceX, UK amp; US rates + Tatton Asset Mgt, Castings, Oxford Metrics

Roland Head — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:05:39 +0100
Roland Head wrote:
Welcome back to The Week Ahead. Shortly after this article is published, shares in the world’s biggest IPO, SpaceX, will begin trading.

The flotation at $135 per share will raise $75bn. This will give the satellite, AI and rocket group a market cap of $1.78tn, reflecting the fact that less than 5% of its equity is being sold.

This IPO has attracted unprecedented interest from private investors who have reportedly been prioritised. They’re expected to receive 20% to 25% of the SpaceX shares being sold, an unusually high proportion for a major flotation.

Ed has covered this story in depth, reviewing SpaceX through the lens of the StockRanks. Perhaps predictably, he warns that based on the numbers “SpaceX looks like a textbook Momentum Trap”.

This doesn’t mean the shares won’t climb higher when trading starts, of course. Sentiment aside, there could be solid buying support from institutions and private investors whose orders didn’t get filled in the IPO.

More broadly, SpaceX is expected to be added to the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 days of trading. This could mean that index tracking funds will have no choice but to buy heavily in the coming weeks.

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 12th June 2026) - PEN, MPE, MCB, VINO

Mark Simpson — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 06:09:15 +0100
Mark Simpson wrote:
In what felt like deja vu, yesterday evening, Trump announced that an agreement to end the war with Iran was close, hours after cancelling a third consecutive night of strikes. His previous threat was that the US would strike Iran "very hard", but shortly afterwards that negotiators had "just made a great settlement" with Iran.

Presumably, his inner circle had just bought a lot of short-dated calls, as Iran poured cold water on the idea. Foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told state TV that reports of an agreement were "speculative" and "nothing has been finalised".

All this happened after the UK market closed and before the US market closed, but with oil down, gold up, and the major indices up since the UK market closed, we can expect a good day for UK equities.

Overnight market movements:

The FTSE is set to open up 0.9% at 10,390.
Samp;P 500 is up 0.1% at 7,395.
Brent crude is down 2.3% at $87.89.
Gold is down 0.7% at $4,180 (+2.7% from UK market close)
Bitcoin is flat at $63,400.

Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.

12:30 - Report is complete

Companies Reporting

Name (Mkt Cap)
RNS Summary Our view

SpaceX - Momentum Trap or the first $100 trillion company?

Edward Croft — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:27:22 +0100
Edward Croft wrote:
Many years ago we opened a 332-page bank prospectus that nobody wanted to read. The TSB float of June 2014 was unloved, unfashionable and - once you did the sums - really rather cheap. The shares popped up 11% on day one and the company was bought out at a 27% premium within nine months. I’d been an IPO skeptic for some time, but in this case, the crowd's lack of enthusiasm was quite a reliable contrarian guide to profits.

This week we've been reading a more popular dossier. SpaceX filed its S1 for its IPO on 20th May, and today it lists on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at a fixed $135 a share. That’s roughly a $1.75 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in history.

Where TSB was the IPO nobody wanted, SpaceX is the one everybody wants. The deal is apparently over two times subscribed, with demand double its $75 billion fresh capital raise.

Up to 30% of the offer is going to retail investors - which is multiples of the normal allocation and just shows the demand that the fame of Elon Musk brings. My own son came back from a post-university trip reporting that all his friends have...

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 11th June 2026) - RWS, HLMA, PAY, SRB, WIZZ, NXR, CNC

Graham Neary — Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:16:49 +0100
Graham Neary wrote:
SpaceX is reported to be massively oversubscribed, with more than four times the demand than the quantity of shares that are actually available.

Official pricing is today (at the fixed price of $135 per share) and trading in the shares should begin tomorrow.

At a $1.8 trillion valuation, it will be more valuable than Tesla (NSQ:TSLA) and Meta Platforms (NSQ:META) but not quite as valuable as the likes of Amazon.com (NSQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NSQ:MSFT). It will be a top 10 stock in the US by market cap.

In terms of its historical importance, it’s a truly landmark event. Alibaba Holding (NYQ:BABA) had a market cap of $169 billion at its IPO price, which seemed enormous at the time (this was in 2014). Saudi Aramco was valued at $1.7 trillion at its 2019 IPO, although they only raised $29 billion.

SpaceX, by contrast, is raising $75 billion - and apparently could have raised a lot more.

If you want my opinion, we have moved into a stage of the long-term bull market where prices for popular shares are now entirely unmoored from the fundamentals. I’ve mentioned recently the price to...

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Bodycote: quality, inflection, and growth at a reasonable price

The Pitch

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 24th June 2026) - VTU, LIO, SGRO, PHP, AVG, BKG, CAV

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 23rd June 2026) - RFX, FTC, HERC, BPM, TEP

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 22nd June 2026) - SYNT, EAAS, EZJ, TRT, TRD, OCDO

The Week Ahead (22nd -26th June): Labour leadership challenge

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 19th June 2026) - PPH, REC, MRK, SYNT, LBG, CFYN

WEBINAR - The NAPS Portfolio at half-time - and how the rules are best adapted to the USA and Europe

Where the NAPS stands at half-time

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 18th June 2026) - TGP, DUKE, WATR, TBLD, XPS, WTB, SNX, TMO

Daily Stock Market Report (Wed 17th June 2026) - PZC, HSP, SNWS, AO., GAW, CGS, BBSN, LIKE

Sabre Insurance: a big yield with a growth twist (and the risks to watch)

The Pitch

Didn’t buy XP Power? 13 potential high return bowls to consider now

Daily Stock Market Report (Tue 16th June 2026) - GMS, W7L, RAT, TAM, IHC, STEM, IGR, EMAN

Daily Stock Market Report (Mon 15th June 2026) - BKS, LUCE, TMG, PEEL, AEP, IQE, TIG

The Week Ahead (15-19 June): SpaceX, UK amp; US rates + Tatton Asset Mgt, Castings, Oxford Metrics

Daily Stock Market Report (Fri 12th June 2026) - PEN, MPE, MCB, VINO

Companies Reporting

SpaceX - Momentum Trap or the first $100 trillion company?

Daily Stock Market Report (Thur 11th June 2026) - RWS, HLMA, PAY, SRB, WIZZ, NXR, CNC