on 18/6 the SP spiked by more than 14%.
This thread was set up for discussion of what, if anything lay behind that jump
Since then the price has continued firm and today, 30/6, the price seems to be on the move again and there are new rumours. Seems sensible to report/discuss them here rather than start a new thread.
Dana has been drilling the Tafejaart prospect in the Bouanane licence in Morocco. The well spudded 24/3/09 and must be due to complete round about now. Target is gas with a mean success volume in excess of 1 tcf. There is a strong local market, good fiscal terms and good prices.
It might be that today's price movement is telling us something about the result.
In reply to tournesol (post #2)
The newswires are also putting it down to that rumour, headline "Dana shares surge on bid chatter". "No names are mentioned but one trader advises caution"...
So either "one trader" knows something and is building a position himself. ;0) - or someone has decided to make a bit of money from the old "pump 'n dump" ;0) Those of us without inside contacts will just have to wait & see.
Shares in Dana Petroleum surged nearly 15 percent on Thursday to 1,430 pence as traders cited market talk of bid interest in the oil & gas explorer.
Dana Petroleum declined immediate comment.
'Hearing a vague rumour of 1,800 pence (per share) bid for Dana Petroleum,' a trader said.
FT Alphaville also reported the bid talk at 1,800 pence each.
Two sources close to Dana said they were unaware of any bid talks.....
It isn't to do with Tafejjart - I confirmed news is likely in "early July" only a few days ago.
The Alphaville story also fingers RWE as a potential bidder - which makes more sense to me than TOTAL!
I would think that the £18 rumour is merely designed (by persons unknown) to flush out potential bidders. IMO as and when Dana is put in play (and, lets face it, that could be any time in current circs!) there is a fair chance it will be a contested situation and I'd be expecting to see the winning bidder paying over £22 a share (assuming not much more is found in the meantime).
rgds
ee
Its now clear that nobody has approached Dana, so from DNX's viewpoint it is all just "rumour". The question for the rest of us, however, is "could there be any truth in the rumour?"
Taking the two names that have been suggested as bidders, I'd think there is room to doubt both. However, the gas positions in the North Sea, Nile Delta and, perhaps, Morocco are well-known to both companies mentioned (eg RWE is in the block adjacent to WEB) and specific developments like the Barbara/Phyllis gas development and the Faroe/Shetland basin (and FPM stake) may well appeal [especially given TOTAL's Laggan position etc] , along with the Fulla gas condensate prospect and Trolla. It might make some sense to bid over summer before drilling at Papyrus, Tornado and Bamboo......and Anne Marie in 2010.
...so one can't rule it out either. Must make sense also to be considering what might levels make sense in advance of the Tafejjart result - which is now rather close....so sounding out of institutions can easily now be done on the back of the rumour... ;-)
My feeling is that there is probably something to it, though whether a real bid ever sees the light of day we'll have to wait to find out! As I've already said, though, I think it would take £22+ to get done so, if they are serious, I'd think that some stakebuilding may be seen in advance. Volumes have been pretty high for a while and I understand that the shares are widely traded (by which I mean that most institutional holders are happy to trade chunks of stock, rather than hold them as core).
...wonder what Colin Goodall says these days when he picks the phone up ;-)
ee
FT comment:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e3ed658-5bcb-11de-aea3-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
people familiar with Dana denied it was in bid talks. RWE declined to comment.
However, with Dana largely focused on oil production and RWE needing gas reserves, a full merger may not be sufficiently attractive. Whether RWE would have the appetite for another bid so soon after its £8.4bn deal for Dutch power company Essent was also open to question. ....
Analysts said Dana may be a plausible merger partner for RWE’s exploration and production arm, RWE Dea. Both companies have North Sea production as well as a wide spread of gas exploration prospects
...as I pointed out earlier though, they are also in adjacent gas-prone blocks in WEB off Egypt.
In the current environment I don't think those who are looking to grow their portfolios are going to be hanging back - especially if they have the financial muscle for deals at a time when others don't - and I'm guessing that RWE is very much in that category!!
The Telegraph, incidentally, reports the rumoured price at £18-20......which is getting closer to something realistic.
ee
The SP has continued to be firm since the spike a fortnight ago.
Today the SP reached £14-46 - an increase > 4% and rumours have re-emerged.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/30/59701/markets-live/
...the price is behaving very, very well
...Been as high as 14.46...and good vol also...from what brokers are telling me most of the buying is coming out of Germany...I believe that ...RWE DEA is running the numbers on Dana and could be close to making a move...apparently there is a report in a German newspaper ...about RWE’s interest...the buying is coming from Europe...I think RWE are looking and the could soon make a move...the price action is telling us something I think:
Other snippets - mostly recycing the same stale crumbs:-
Shares in Dana Petroleum ...rose 3.7 percent on Tuesday as traders cited renewed market talk of bid interest from Germany's biggest power generator, RWE ...Both RWE and Dana Petroleum declined to comment....Rumours of a 1,800 pence per share bid ...emerged earlier this month but sources close to the process denied bid talks were ongoing.
source: www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSLU4456320090630
Dana Petroleum is higher on talk of a possible offer from RWE. Its shares are 57p better at £14.27, although traders are uncertain about the likelihood of any bid. They point out that Dana is geographically more spread than rival FTSE 250 companies which are already in play, while any bidder would have to pay a huge - possibly unjustifiable - premium to the current share price to win over the company. Still, stranger things have happened.
source: www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2009/jun/30/bggroup-danapetroleum
many other comments in many other news services all with near identical text
