Tariffs are back on the agenda, with the Trump administration imposing them very widely - to its top 60 trade partners.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s dramatic initial set of tariffs last year; the new ones are more modest at 10%-12.5%. The UK is included in the long list of countries affected.
Countries that prove they are successfully prohibiting the importation of goods produced with forced labour will be subject to the lower 10% rate, while all others will be subject to 12.5%.
Canada has received special treatment, but not in a good way: earlier this week, it learned that many of its goods would face a 50% rate (including wine and hockey sticks).
Tesla missed earnings forecasts last night, and its stock fell 14.5% (a big number for a trillion dollar company!).
The FTSE is down 0.3% at 10,600
S&P 500 is unchanged at 7,400
Brent crude (October) is down 0.8% at $93.50/bbl
Gold is down 0.6% at $4,030/oz
Bitcoin is up 0.3% at $65,300
Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA) (£262bn | SR74) | HSBC agreed to sell HSBC Life (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. to Allianz for S$2.7 billion (US$2.1bn). | ||
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) (£35.7bn | SR75) | As of yesterday, Los Pelambres has resumed operations and the Group's full year production guidance range remains unchanged. | ||
Reckitt Benckiser (LON:RKT) (£31.4bn | SR85) | Agreed to divest its Russian Hygiene business to Arnest Management LLC. Russia Hygiene represented c.1% of Core Reckitt's Net Revenue in the year ended 31st December 2025. | ||
Wise (LON:WISE) (£11.2bn | SR54) | SP -7% U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency decided to deny Wise's application for a national trust bank charter at this time. | GREEN = (Graham) [no section below] It took Revolut five years to get a UK banking licence. During that time, the business evolved very significantly and it gradually learned how to navigate the regulatory environment. During this time, regulators also learned to trust Revolut. The same I suspect may eventually be true of Wise in the United States: it will grow and mature, and learn how to navigate banking compliance (especially anti-money laundering). Its management teams will also evolve and be better-equipped to earn the trust of regulators such as the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Today's news is a setback to rapid growth ambitions, but does not affect any of the company's existing licenses. | |
Renishaw (LON:RSW) (£3.6bn | SR71) | Record quarterly revenue in Q4 of approximately £243m, 27% above the prior year and 18% above Q3. FY2026 adjusted operating profit to be approximately £152m and adjusted profit before tax to be approximately £167m, 31% above the prior year. | GREEN ↑ (Graham)
On balance, I’m fine with upgrading our stance on this to fully GREEN today. It’s certainly expensive and if I was looking purely at valuation, I’d leave our previous AMBER/GREEN stance unchanged. However, in StockRank terms, it's a High Flyer, which on average is a winning style. It has a MomentumRank of 97, and has just raised its guidance for the second time in a row. EPS forecasts have been trending upwards for a year. So on the basis that “the trend is your friend”, I’ll put us GREEN on this for the time being. When performance has stabilised again, I’ll probably want to take us back to a more measured positioning. | |
Burford Capital (LON:BUR) (£685m | SR13) | ICC International Court of Arbitration tribunal issued an award in favor of one of Burford's counterparties in an amount exceeding US$600 million. If the award were to be paid in full today, Burford's entitlement would be more than AUD$250 million, with all of the return accruing to Burford's balance sheet and no participation by Burford's investment funds. The case remains subject to significant litigation and collection risks. | ||
Discoverie (LON:DSCV) (£677m | SR58) | The strong trading momentum experienced in the fourth quarter last year continued this Period with Group orders up 31% organically and Group sales up 6% organically with a book to bill of 1.15. The positive outlook continues with full year adjusted earnings tracking ahead of the Board's expectations. | ||
Victrex (LON:VCT) (£632m | SR95) | On 31 July 2026, Ian Melling will step down as Chief Financial Officer and as a member of the Board. An orderly transition is underway. | ||
Team Internet (LON:TIG) (£110m | SR40) | Trading for H1 2026 was in line with market consensus. Revenue $179.1m (H1 2025: $263.9m). Adj. EBITDA $19.5m (H1 2025: $24.6m). | ||
Victoria (LON:VCP) (£83m | SR52) | SP -10% Underlying revenue down 6% (volumes down 9%). Underlying EBITDA £92m (FY25: £114m). Underlying operating profit £7.3m (FY25: £29.5m). Statutory operating loss £153m after impairments, provisions, etc. “The Board remains conscious of macroeconomic factors outside of its control and therefore we currently expect to deliver at least £115m EBITDA in FY2027.” Net debt £1,063m. | RED = (Graham) [no section below] Management have put their best foot forward today with impressively-written commentary, but I believe that ownership of this company is going to end up in the hands of its creditors, one way or another. The recently-announced refinancing transaction was very positive for the equity, in the sense that it saw owners of preferred shares accept conversion of their preferred shares into equity at an enormous (400%) premium to the share price. Senior secured noteholders (maturing in 2028) have also agreed to extend their notes out to 2031 and to take some equity. When the lenders are being forced to compromise, it follows that the equity is deeply compromised. Fitch gives Victoria a credit rating of CCC-. | |
Home Reit (LON:HOME) (£76m | SR22) | Smith Square Partners LLP this week issued proceedings regarding a purported unpaid contractual debt of £1,623,600. HOME intends to vigorously defend the Claim. | ||
Aoti (LON:AOTI) (£70m | SR39) | Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has indicated that topical oxygen therapy is reasonable and necessary for the treatment of diabetic foot ulcers that have failed to heal. Will finalise this determination within a year. This will dramatically expand the US addressable market. | ||
Nexteq (LON:NXQ) (£28m | SR76) | H1 trading was in line with management's revised expectations and the outlook for FY26 remains unchanged. | ||
Neo Energy Metals (LON:NEO) (£25m | SR24) | 70%-owned South African subsidiary, Neo Uranium Resources Beisa Mine Proprietary Limited, has signed a site access and contractorship agreement with Sibanye Gold, granting Neo Energy access to the Beatrix 4 Shaft Mining Area to begin a fully funded assessment programme. | ||
Kendrick Resources (LON:KEN) (£25m | SR15) | SP +8.5% “Continuity of mineralisation over impressive mineralised widths and associated excellent grades remains a key feature of the TK carbonatite complex. We will continue drilling with three rigs with the aim of generating sufficient data to produce a mineral resource estimate for TK in the shortest possible timeframe.” |
Backlog
Fonix (LON:FNX)
Up 8% this week at 169.7p (£166m) - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =
Thank you for the requests to cover this one.
It’s not one that I usually look at. The last time was in July 2025 (share price around 210p), when I lowered our stance on it to AMBER/GREEN on the basis that it had reached a high P/E multiple (20x) and had also slightly missed estimates.
The company provides messaging and payment services to major media organisations and charities, and to various digital services. It says it is “the largest SMS and Carrier Billing mobile aggregator in the UK”.
One of its major contracts is with ITV, providing live services for I’m a Celebrity, Love Island, Britain’s Got Talent, etc. It’s also active now in both Portugal and Ireland, and is making efforts for future full launches in Switzerland and France. Another unnamed country is targeted for launch by the end of FY27.
Some key points from yesterday’s trading update for FY June 2026.
Gross profit and adjusted EBITDA “slightly ahead of market expectations”
Adj. EBITDA +11% to £16.2m.
Total payment volume up 8% to £303m.
The “large majority” of revenue is of a recurring nature.
Dividend: the dividend will be increased to pay out at least 75% of adj. EPS, in line with their dividend policy, but the exact amount is not confirmed yet. A £2m share buyback was carried out in May.
Outlook:
Fonix enters FY27 with positive momentum across its core UK and Ireland markets, and an expanded international footprint from which to accelerate growth….
Product innovation remains a key driver of growth. The Board anticipates a significant ramp-up in RCS [GN note: rich messaging] activity from the end of H1 FY27, alongside continued rollout of PayFlex [GN note: an SMS-based payment service]...
With five international markets now live, piloting or in build, and an accelerating product roadmap, the Group is building strong momentum for future growth, and the Board looks to FY27 with real confidence.
Estimates: the RNS helpfully lets us know that market expectations for gross profit and EBITDA were £20.5m and £16m, respectively.
At Cavendish, there were small upgrades to FY June 2027 and FY June 2028 estimates on the back of this update:
Gross profit estimates raised by 2% (FY27 £22.8m, FY28 £25.2m).
Adj. EPS estimates raised by 3% (FY27 12.4p, FY28 13.8p).
Graham’s view
The stock is trading at around 14x current-year earnings, which I think is fair for the business in its current state.
While it does earn extremely high returns (ROE, ROCE, etc.), this is a sector where providers are typically reliant on a small number of relationships with major customers. The most recent annual report from Fonix said that 3 customers provided more than 10% of revenues. Perhaps a reader has more detailed information than this, but that fact alone says to me that it’s fair to note the potential for very high customer concentration.
I previously owned shares in a much less successful Irish premium SMS company, Zamano, which later went bust after regulations changed and disrupted its business model. So I do know from experience that this can be a tricky sector for a variety of reasons. Technology and regulations change quickly, providing both opportunities and risks.
All of that being said, Fonix is an example of a company succeeding in the space and the real wildcard is international expansion: if it succeeds in France, Switzerland, Portugal, etc., then it’s clearly going to be worth a lot more than it is today. Growth will also help to reduce the customer concentration risk that exercises me so much.
So I’m staying AMBER/GREEN on Fonix today. Fairly priced for now, in my view, perhaps even a little cheap, with upside available if its growth ventures succeed.
Tristel (LON:TSTL)
Up 4.5% this week at 397.1p (£191m) - Positive Trading Update - Graham - AMBER/GREEN =
This has been an important stock for many private investors over the years, as it multi-bagged for those who got in early enough.
It has stalled over the past five years, however:
The company manufactures its own disinfection solutions for healthcare settings (medical/pharma).
This week’s “positive trading update” for FY June 2026 was… positive:
Revenues up 10% to £51.1m (FY 2025: £46.5m)
Adjusted EBITDA margin remains comfortably above the 25% target
14% growth in adjusted profit before tax which is expected to be no less than £11.5m, marginally above market expectations (FY 2025: £10.1m)
The company’s cash balance rose by a few million pounds during the year to £16m.
Interim CEO comment:
We are delighted to deliver another year of significant growth with strong demand for our infection prevention products globally.
"We continue to meet our performance targets of delivering double-digit revenue growth each year, and maintaining adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 25%. We remain debt-free, cash-generative, and confident in our ability to continue to sustain this momentum in the years ahead.
"We are very excited to welcome our new CEO, Chris Lee, to the Company on 1 August, and we look forward to his contribution to the business as we drive further growth and overseas expansion in the new financial year."
The previous CEO left to take up the prestigious-sounding role of President at a US multinational.
New CEO Chris Lee joins from a medical device manufacturer based in the Cotswolds. His career background includes 18 years at Johnson & Johnson.
Estimates: thanks to Singers for covering this one. The adj. PBT result is 4% ahead of their estimate, “consistent with a company that has built a track record of underpromising rather than delivering dramatic upgrades". Sounds like Tristel has been managing expectations very sensibly.
Consistent with that idea, EPS forecasts have been very stable:
Singers have left their earnings forecasts unchanged:
Revenue: FY June 2026 £56.2m, FY27 £61.4m.
Adjusted PBT: FY June 2026 £13m, FY27 £15m.
This implies revenue growth of 10% in the current financial year, with adj. PBT growth slightly stronger at 13%.
Graham’s view
It’s difficult for me to criticise any aspect of the performance of Tristel, but it’s equally difficult for me to get too excited. Disinfectant is not supposed to be exciting, I suppose!
Stockopedia’s computers like what they see, calling it a High Flyer:
The company has recently started expanding in the United States and while the total sales figure there is still just 1% of the company’s total, that does provide an interesting growth opportunity that has been highlighted by the company.
Roland was AMBER/GREEN on this in March when the market cap was almost identical to what it is today. On balance, I'm inclined to leave that unchanged today.
It is a little expensive, but it has the performance and the prospects to back that up.
The explanation for why the share price has stagnated for the past several years is simple once you look at the historical P/E ratio: it was overheated, and needed some time to grow into this valuation, which it is still doing. Perhaps the share price is almost ready for the next leg upwards?
Morgan Sindall (LON:MGNS)
Down 4% this week at £45.28 (£2.2bn) - Interim Results - Graham - GREEN =
I turned GREEN on this construction stock in April, after a "significantly ahead” trading update..
Yesterday’s H1 results maintained those higher expectations:
Record first half results and remain confident in maintaining current expectations for 2026
Highlights:
Revenue +8% (£2,562m)
Adj. PBT +21% (£116.1m)
Actual PBT +22% (£116.1m)
Very clean results, in both H1 periods this year and last year, is a huge green flag for me (and I think unusual in a complex sector such as construction/regeneration).
Comment by CEO John Morgan:
Our Fit Out and Construction Services businesses delivered excellent results and made a significant contribution to Group performance during the period, while our Partnerships businesses faced a more challenging macroeconomic environment.
The medium-term fundamentals for Fit Out remain strong and in Construction, we have continued to benefit from ongoing government investment commitments. As a result, we have increased the medium-term targets for both the Fit Out and Construction divisions.
Despite the challenging housing backdrop, the strength and breadth of our diverse operations, together with the visibility provided by our high-quality order book for the remainder of the year, we remain confident that our full year performance will be in line with our current expectations.
The divisional breakdown confirms terrific strength in “Fit Out” and “Construction”, while “Partnership Housing” went in the other direction:
It’s very much a tale of three divisions, as there are some significant positive changes in the medium-term expectations across two of them, while Partnership Housing experiences some temporary difficulties:
At the midpoint, Fit Out’s medium-term operating profit target has increased from £90m to £115m.
Construction now has an operating margin target of 3.5% to 4% (previously 3% to 3.5%)
Partnership Housing is now expected to see “slightly lower” operating profit this year, compared to last year (actually I’m impressed that profits haven’t fallen more, considering the dropoff in revenues).
Looking for an explanation of the drop-off in Partnership Housing revenues, I find:
During the first half of the year, challenging economic conditions continued to prevail within the private housing market, adversely impacting consumer confidence. Despite this, the division continued to invest and develop its long-term partnerships with local authorities and housing associations…
Demand for contracting with the public sector remained strong and continued to represent two thirds of the divisional revenues in the first half of the year, partially mitigating the impact from lower open market sales within mixed-tenure activities.
It’s clear that the result would have been much worse without the company’s public sector exposure, offsetting the weakness in the private housing market.
Outlook: in line, as stated at the top.
Looking ahead, as each of the Group's standalone businesses experience varied conditions in their end markets, the strength and breadth of the Group's diverse operations, together with the visibility provided by its high-quality order book for the remainder of the year, the Group remains confident that its full year performance will be in line with its current expectations.
Graham’s view
This is not the type of stock I’m drawn to, but I think I need to stay GREEN on it for the time being.
EPS forecasts are moving in one direction at the moment:
But what also stand out for me are the very clean accounts, the net cash, and the diversification across a range of construction-related activities.
Additionally, its exposure to public sector spending is serving to partially protect it from economic turbulence.
This is another stock which I do not consider to be at “bargain” levels. But there is enough business momentum and there are enough positive features, to keep my GREEN stance unchanged for the time being.
This is consistent with Stockopedia’s calculations, which give it a StockRank of 91 and call it a Super Stock.
Graham's Section
Renishaw (LON:RSW)
Up 6% at £52.30 (£3.8bn) - Trading Statement - Graham - GREEN ↑
The last time we looked at this was an upgrade in April.
We summarised the news then as follows:
Upgrade to FY2026 guidance: now expect revenue of £775m to £805m and adj PBT of £145m to £165m (previously £740 to £780m & £132 to £157m).
Today’s update continues the good news:
We saw accelerating growth throughout the year, culminating in record quarterly revenue in Q4 of approximately £243m, 27% above the prior year and 18% above Q3. Demand remained strong from customers in the semiconductor and electronics manufacturing equipment sector, and from the aerospace and defence sector.
New revenue guidance is £815m (up 14% from FY25). This is above the top end of the range given in April.
New adjusted PBT guidance is £167m, also above the top end of the range that was given, and up 31% from FY25.
Graham’s view
Renishaw is “a global provider of manufacturing technologies, analytical instruments and medical devices.” They help customers “to measure and manufacture with greater precision and efficiency”.
Engineering is not really my area of expertise, and it’s difficult to summarise Renishaw as they have offices in so many locations: 36 countries.
What is clear is that their exposure to certain rapidly growing sectors is paying off handsomely at the moment. It looks to me as if Renishaw is a downstream beneficiary of the tech boom: not an AI stock in its own right, but a company that does well when there is very high hardware demand.
One feature that stood out to me in today’s guidance was that adj. PBT (£167m) is higher than ad. operating profit (£152m). This usually signals a strong balance sheet, and my suspicions are confirmed when I check the half year report: the company reported cash of £241m, with negligible borrowings.
Some more positives:
Fully organic growth, no acquisitions needed.
Results have been reasonably clean; there were some adjustments in H1 this year but the prior financial year saw adjusted PBT of £127 convert to actual PBT of £118m.
On balance, I’m fine with upgrading our stance on this to fully GREEN today.
It’s certainly expensive:
If I was looking purely at valuation, I’d leave our previous AMBER/GREEN stance unchanged.
However, in StockRank terms, it's a High Flyer, which on average is a winning style. It has a MomentumRank of 97, and has just raised its guidance for the second time in a row. EPS forecasts have been trending upwards for a year:
So on the basis that “the trend is your friend”, I’ll put us GREEN on this for the time being. When performance has stabilised again, I’ll probably want to take us back to a more measured positioning.
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