Oil is down by over $5 per barrel since last week, with a fresh round of US-Iran negotiations set to begin this afternoon. President Trump says that the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince asked him to continue talks.
Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have been negotiating with each other over a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz (both countries neighbouring the Strait). Iran’s Foreign Minister says that these talks are in the final stages.
It won’t necessarily be possible to use this new route straight away, but it could make other negotiations easier as the route “respects the sovereign rights of both sides and safeguards our national interests and security” according to the Iranian minister.
Euro/dollar/yen: the US has reportedly been selling euros in order to help Japan to prop up the yen, as the yen recently hit a 40-year low. The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that “coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements”.
Overnight market movements:
The FTSE is up 0.2% at 10,900
S&P 500 is up 0.6% at 7,535
Brent crude (October) is down 5.4% at $82.60/bbl
Gold is up 0.6% at $4,070/oz
Bitcoin is down 1% at $62,850
Roland Head joins me today.
Hanging up our pens there, thank you. Spreadsheet accompanying this report: link.
Companies Reporting
| Name (Mkt Cap) | RNS | Summary | Our view (Author) |
|---|---|---|---|
National Grid (LON:NG.). (£60bn | SR66) | The Group Executive Committee will be cut from 13 to 8 members, with regional operations unified under single UK and US Presidents. | ||
easyJet (LON:EZJ) (£4.8bn | SR52) | The deadline for both Castlelake and Apollo to make a firm offer has been extended to 5pm on 7 August 2026. Apollo is currently the favoured choice, at 715p per share, but easyJet has been providing due diligence to both parties. | TAKEOVER (Graham) [no section below] | |
Plus500 (LON:PLUS) (£3.0bn | SR75) | “The new offering enables Plus500 customers to gain exposure to a growing range of leading US stocks through futures contracts, including Micro Single Stock Futures, providing a flexible and capital-efficient alternative to traditional equity trading.” | ||
HICL Infrastructure (LON:HICL) (£2.5bn | SR94) | “Portfolio performance in line with expectations”. Increased HICL’s ownership of Cross London Trains by 6.65% to 13.13% for £52m – expected to add 1p to NAV. Dividend outlook reaffirmed, on track to deliver target dividend of 8.5p for FY27, with new guidance of 8.65p for FY28. | ||
Clarkson (LON:CKN) (£1.46bn | SR71) | H1 revenue +39% to £413.5m with pre-tax profit up 41% to £55.6m. Adj EPS +50% to 147.6p. Record H1 performance reflected investment in business and “exceptional volatility caused by the disruption to global trade from global conflict”. Outlook: full year performance expected to be “materially ahead of market expectations”. | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland - I hold) An extremely strong set of half-year numbers, exceeding the market’s already positive expectations. However, broker Panmure Liberum has only upgraded its EPS estimates by 6% today and I think it’s worth considering the possibility that profits could be approaching a peak. I remain positive about the long-term prospects but aware of the inherent cyclicality of this business. Despite this concern, I’m leaving my broadly positive view unchanged today: the valuation is substantially unchanged from my last review in March and I’m reluctant to turn neutral when EPS forecasts are rising. | |
Senior (LON:SNR) (£1.22bn | SR71) | Revenue +7% to £390.8m with adj pre-tax profit +40% to £34.8m. Full year expectations unchanged. Takeover completion expected by the end of 2026. | TAKEOVER | |
Kosmos Energy (LON:KOS) (£1.18bn | SR34) | Q2 revenue +56.8% to $617m with pre-tax profit of $282.5m (Q2 25: $(63.8)m. Q2 net production of c.71.4 kboepd (+12% vs Q2 25) with production expense of $25.61/boe (-25% vs Q2 25). Net debt reduced by >$400m in H1. FY26 capex guidance unchanged. | ||
RWS Holdings (LON:RWS) (£358m | SR89) | Acquiring Acogroup, parent of Acolad, “a leading global provider of language and content solutions”. Will broaden RWS’s client base in Europe. Acogroup is being acquired for an enterprise value of £22.4m, or 2x forecast EBITDA of £11m for y/e 30 Sept 27. | AMBER/GREEN = (Roland - I hold) This acquisition looks like a sensible sector consolidation play that will allow RWS to scale up in existing end markets and expand its market share in Europe. The low acquisition multiple should mean a quick payback – but of course the caveat is that Acolad’s profits have been falling in a sector that’s under structural pressure. On balance, I see this deal as a net positive that supports the investment case for RWS. I think it’s fair to leave our broadly positive view unchanged today. | |
Chrysalis Investments (LON:CHRY) (£354m | SR43) | NAV at 30 June 2026 was 131.09p per share, down 2.1% since 31 March 2026. This primarily reflects a reduction in Starling’s carrying value. | ||
Elixirr International (LON:ELIX) (£315m | SR61) | SP +2% H1 revenue +25% to £89m, with adj EBITDA +29% to £27.6m. Continued to see “strong demand for commercial transformation and technology services, with further, significant growth in AI-related revenue.” | AMBER/GREEN = (Graham) [no section below] This "challenger consultancy" has not yet made it into the FTSE-250, but it continues to knock on the door (the smallest FTSE-250 constituents tend to have a market cap around £350m). Today's trading update outlines H1 revenue up 25% and adjusted EBITDA up 29% (to £27.6m), but I must mark the company down for not clarifying how much of this growth was organic vs. inorganic. For context, organic growth in the previous financial year was 15.3%; the company has a tendency to emphasise total growth and treat organic growth as a detail. Since we last covered this in November, there has been a secondary placing with £8.4m of stock sold by individuals who previously owned a business that Elixirr acquired, and another few million pounds of stock sold by "certain current and former Partners of Elixirr". But the CEO and deputy CEO still hold heavy stakes in the business, and so I'm willing to look past this and maintain our moderately positive stance. The stock trades at 9x earnings; as a rule of thumb, I try not to be too enthusiastic about consultancy stocks trading at double-digit earnings multiples. Elixirr is still on a single-digit multiple (just!) and trading well, so I'm happy to stay AMBER/GREEN. | |
Capita (LON:CPI) (£312m | SR19) | Disposal: Completion of private sector contact centre disposal & Contract | Completed contact centre disposal after market close on 31 July, as per 26 March 26 announcement. Expect contingent payment of up to £61.5m between 2027 and 2030, based on “certain performance conditions”. | |
Winvia Entertainment (LON:WVIA) (£264m | SR37) | Winvia (Best of the Best) has entered into a new partnership with Aston Villa to run prize draw competitions. This is the first B2B deployment of BOTB’s prize draw technology. | ||
Public Policy Holding (LON:PPHC) (£231m | SR18) | PPHC has acquired The Advocacy Partners, one of Florida's pre-eminent government relations firms, for an initial consideration of $20.4 million. TAP generated pre-tax profit of $4.6m in 2025. | ||
FDM (Holdings) (LON:FDM) (£135m | SR78) | Revenue -19% with adj pre-tax profit -39% to £5.5m. Adj EPS -40% to 3.8p. Consultants assigned at week 26 were 2,042, +2% vs 31 Dec 25. Outlook remains uncertain, but says the “positive lead indicators” seen in certain markets in late 2025 have continued through the first half of 2026. | AMBER ↑ (Roland) One year after my last review, I’m moving our view back to neutral. Today’s update appears to be largely in line and there are tentative signs of a possible recovery in activity levels. While the downturn has been fairly brutal, FDM’s balance sheet remains strong and the business still seems viable at current depressed levels. On that basis, any turnaround could deliver a strong recovery in profit. As things stand, I think the stock’s Contrarian styling is very fair and I note the recent improvement in MomentumRank. An 8% dividend yield is another attraction. I’m turning neutral and believe this might be worth a closer look. | |
Invinity Energy Systems (LON:IES) (£124m | SR23) | Sale of 43 MWh of battery systems to Dairyland Power Cooperative for deployment across the US Midwest from late 2027 onwards. Part of a US government-backed programme. No value specified. | ||
Smarter Web (LON:SWC) (£107m | SR11) | Purchased 11.89 Bitcoin for £559,493. The terms of the loan facility with Coinbase have been improved. Variable interest rate of 6%. SWC has also raised £1m gross from a placing at a price equivalent to £0.31 per share. | ||
accesso Technology (LON:ACSO) (£106m | SR91) | Half Year Trading Update and Notice of Results & Notice of IT Security Incident | Trading in H1 FY26 was resilient and in line with the Board's expectations. The Board's outlook for FY26 remains unchanged. Typical H2 weighting and with H2 depending on milestone-based project revenues. IT security incident: temporary unauthorised access to a limited part of the Group's systems. Investigation ongoing. The risk of financial exposure arising from the incident is assessed to be low. | |
Tracsis (LON:TRCS) (£102m | SR70) | Sold its Events Transport Planning & Management business. Enterprise value £7.25m, paid in cash on completion. Proceeds to reduce net debt following completion of the acquisition of Mistral Data. | AMBER = (Graham)
While I do think that the acquisition and the disposal, taken together, are positive news stories, they don’t change my overall opinion on the stock. It now offers a higher level of risk and a higher level of reward, compared to what it offered before the news of the proposed acquisition of Mistral Data. Maybe my understanding of the company’s products isn’t strong enough. Or maybe I’m not giving the company enough credit for its status as a software provider that deserves a more premium valuation. Either way, I can’t quite find the conviction that it deserves a much higher stock price than it currently enjoys. So I’m agreeing with what my co-writers have previously written here, and leaving this on AMBER. | |
EnSilica (LON:ENSI) (£101m | SR54) | Secured a second contract worth €1.7 million from a leading European satellite manufacturer. Building on the feasibility study, EnSilica will develop the system architecture, signal processing algorithms and systems demonstrator device required before the ASIC enters the full development phase. | ||
Home Reit (LON:HOME) (£76m | SR22) | The company has now exchanged on the final four properties in the portfolio. Anticipated to complete by the end of August. Exited the REIT regime with effect from 28 July 2026. The company’s wholly owned subsidiaries will enter voluntary liquidation. | ||
DP Poland (LON:DPP) (£66m | SR24) | Further to the previous announcement, the new CEO joins today. | ||
Intercede (LON:IGP) (£65m | SR38) | New contract orders and renewals of c. $2.6m in total. , “FY27 has started well, with pipeline conversion and trading momentum being maintained.” | ||
Microlise (LON:SAAS) (£46m | SR38) | H1 revenue down 10%. Adj. EBITDA down 16%. “As anticipated, Group revenue was lower year-on-year, reflecting continued weakness in OEM revenues and lower non-recurring hardware revenues… the Board continues to expect delivery of FY26 profitability in line with market expectations.” | ||
Coiled Therapeutics (LON:COIL) (£42m | SR1) | The first patient in the United States has been dosed with the Company's optimised lipid-based oral formulation of AO-252. Initial post-dose safety monitoring identified no treatment-related adverse safety findings. | ||
Edx Medical (LON:EDX) (£39m | SR3) | EDX and its partners have completed the development and technical validation of a pioneering rapid pneumonia test for critically ill patients that is now being deployed successfully in NHS clinical practice. | ||
Kavango Resources (LON:KAV) (£31m | SR4) | Announces the successful installation and commencement of commissioning of its 50 tonne per day gold processing plant at the Hillside project in Zimbabwe. | ||
Amigo Resources (LON:AMGO) (£30m | SR79) | Tanzanian processing operations have produced 5 kilograms of gold since the commissioning of processing activities. | ||
Georgina Energy (LON:GEX) (£23m | SR13) | Successfully raised a further £500,000 through the issue of 5,555,556 new ordinary shares on the same terms as the July Raise. The investor will be issued with one warrant per one placing share at an exercise price of 10p (current price: 10.05p). | ||
Altitude (LON:ALT) (£19m | SR54) | Revenue +19% ($44.4m). Adjusted PBT flat at $1.6m. Statutory loss before tax $0.2m. Current trading is in line with the Board's expectations. | AMBER/RED = (Graham) [no section below] Investors had high hopes for this business in the past, but it hasn't lived up to them and I don't think today's results do very much to change this perception. The adjusted operating profit margin is less than 10% and I continue to doubt that this is a real "marketplace"-type stock that might some day enjoy lucrative network effects. Hopefully it can prove me wrong with the launch earlier this year of AIM iQ™, Altitude's "AI-enabled platform built for the promotional products industry". However, there have been many false dawns in the past. It's also worth pointing out that the management structure is now rather unorthodox with no permanent CEO in place: instead there is a non-Exec Chairman, a COO, CFO and Chief Strategy Officer. Forecasts published by Singers in April suggested that the company might generate an adjusted PBT of $2.9m (£2.2m) in the current financial year, FY March 2027. On that basit, does offer some value if it achieves its strategic ambitions, but I think a sceptical stance remains sensible for us. | |
Genedrive (LON:GDR) (£16m | SR10) | “The publication of this new UK clinical guideline is an important step in the adoption of MT-RNR1 testing in acute care… these recommendations provide further support for wider NHS implementation of our test into routine acute care settings." | ||
Cellbxhealth (LON:CLBX) (£15m | SR14) | A peer-reviewed study in The Journal of Liquid Biopsy “demonstrates the potential of the Parsortix® platform to support assessment of clinically relevant ADC targets on CTCs.” | ||
Pennant International (LON:PEN) (£14m | SR37) | New contract for its Auxilium software suite with a major global shipbuilding organisation. Expected to add c. £0.2m to Annual Recurring Revenue. | ||
Bradda Head Lithium (LON:BHL) (£13m | SR30) | CEO: “These results, including grades of up to 4.24% Li₂O, significantly inform and strengthen our confidence in the targets selected for the upcoming drilling programme at Whistlejacket, and endorse our overall excitement about the future of the project and its potential to become a significant asset for Bradda Head.” | ||
Tern (LON:TERN) (£13m | SR45) | Repaid the £125,957.26 outstanding principal and accrued interest due under the loan facility agreement originally announced on 12 June 2023. | ||
Prospex Energy (LON:PXEN) (£13m | SR32) | £1,203,000 of gas sales revenue from Selva Malvezzi reflecting higher European gas prices since March. Closed Q2 with £852k in cash after paying initial licence fees for newly awarded licences in Poland and settling Selva 2025 production royalty and tax obligations. | ||
Eenergy (LON:EAAS) (£12m | SR33) | Revenue +117% to £21.8m, boosted by the delivery of the significant Mace project revenue across 62 school sites. Loss before tax £1.1m. Trading in line with expectations (downgraded guidance from 22nd June). | ||
Goldstone Resources (LON:GRL) (£11m | SR21) | Commencement of a reverse circulation pit definition drilling programme at its Homase Mine. H1 gold production of c. 46.43 kilograms of doré, which equated to approximately 1,214.4 troy ounces of gold sold. Production affected by the annual rainy season in Ghana. |
Graham's Section
Tracsis (LON:TRCS)
Up 2% at 350p (£104m) - Sale of Events Business - Graham - AMBER =
Tracsis was already in the news last week over its acquisition of “Mistral Data” from Firstgroup (LON:FGP).
Today I’ll take a look at that acquisition and at today’s sale.
For context, Tracsis is a transport technology company that we’ve been neutral on. Its growth rates have been fairly uninspiring, and so we’ve been neutral on it at a PE of about 12x (currently around 11x).
The company does (or did) have a significant cash pile, and it has been putting that to use with acquisitions. Which brings us to…
Proposed acquisition of Mistral Data Limited (29th July)
Key points:
Acquired from Firstgroup (LON:FGP)
Enterprise value £48m (cash-free, debt-free basis). To be paid for in cash.
FY March 2026: Mistral generated £13m of revenues and adj. EBITDA of c. £4m. 85% of revenue is recurring under long-term contracts.
Mistral has a “highly complementary product set with minimal overlap” for Tracsis:
Mistral Data is a UK rail software provider with a diversified portfolio of business-critical cloud-native software and data solutions that help Train Operating Companies ("TOCs") communicate with passengers, manage demand and revenue, run day-to-day operations, monitor rolling stock, and turn operational data into insight.
How Tracsis will pay for it: “existing cash resources and drawings under the Group's revolving credit facility, which has been extended by one year and increased to provide total capacity of up to £40 million, including a £5 million accordion.” The leverage multiple at Tracsis will go to 2x at completion, falling to 1x by December 2027.
This is a really interesting acquisition for Tracsis. They previously reported net cash of £26m (January 2026) so the transition to net debt with a leverage multiple of 2x is a big change for them.
While debt-funded acquisitions can carry major risks, the leverage multiples involved here don’t strike me as excessive. Especially if they can get leverage down to 1x by the end of next year. That should not be too risky (assuming nothing goes terribly wrong between now and then). I don’t have a problem with temporary leverage that’s used to achieve major strategic goals.
And the acquisition of Mistral Data looks like it could achieve plenty for Tracsis. While I’m not an expert in the product set at Mistral or Tracsis, they are clearly operating in highly related fields. In the words of the Tracsis CEO, “Mistral Data is a high-quality business in the market we know best, with products that complement rather than compete with our own.”
Where I’d be a bit more concerned is about the price paid. Tracsis are paying 12x trailing adjusted EBITDA. Remember that we thought Tracsis itself was fairly valued at 12x after tax net income. 12x EBITDA is a much higher bar.
If we put it in software terms, it looks much better. Tracsis are paying about 4.3x annualised recurring revenue (ARR). In the context of typical SaaS valuations, that’s not expensive. SaaS companies can often trade at 6-10x ARR or higher.
So to sum up my view on the Mistral acquisition: it’s strategically interesting, a little risky in the short-term due to the use of debt (but I don’t think excessively risky), and the valuation is fine if you are willing to give Mistral a SaaS-style valuation.
Today’s news: Sale of Events business.
This is much smaller than last week’s announcement, but I like it. Key points:
Tracsis sells its Events Transport Planning & Management business.
Enterprise value: £7.25m, paid in cash.
Cash received will reduce net debt following the anticipated completion of Mistral Data purchase (which depends on CMA clearance).
The valuation involved here is only 4x EBITDA, compared to 12x EBITDA for the purchase of Mistral Data. That’s the difference between a “services-led business” and a software business.
This is a good news story for several reasons.
Reduces the financial risk profile of the company.
Demonstrates that management are not simply building an empire.
Improves the focus of the company on transport software.
Graham’s view
I’ve written a lot of words considering that my conclusion is only to leave Tracsis on neutral.
However, while I do think that the acquisition and the disposal, taken together, are positive news stories, they don’t change my overall opinion on the stock.
It now offers a higher level of risk and a higher level of reward, compared to what it offered before the news of the proposed acquisition of Mistral Data.
The valuation hasn’t changed much over the past year:
Stockopedia is a little more positive than I am: it rates Tracsis as a “High Flyer”, offering both Quality and Momentum, but not much Value.
Maybe my understanding of the company’s products isn’t strong enough. Or maybe I’m not giving the company enough credit for its status as a software provider that deserves a more premium valuation. Either way, I can’t quite find the conviction that it deserves a much higher stock price than it currently enjoys. So I’m agreeing with what my co-writers have previously written here, and leaving this on AMBER.
Roland's Section
RWS Holdings (LON:RWS)
Up 13% at 109p (£389m) - RWS agrees to acquire Acogroup - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =
(At the time of writing, Roland has a long position in RWS.)
Shareholders in this translation and localisation specialist “global AI solutions company” have endured a volatile ride this year.
Mark covered June’s half-year results plunge here – while the H1 figures appeared to be in line, the market didn’t like them much and Mark also expressed some concerns.
Today’s news from this business appears to have received a more positive reception – and I can see why. This appears to be a sector consolidation play, with RWS buying a respected peer at a low multiple of earnings to expand its market share in Europe.
Let’s take a look.
Acquisition details:
RWS has acquired Acogroup, the parent of Acolad, “a leading global provider of language and content solutions”.
Consideration: the deal gives Acolad an enterprise value of £22.4m
Valuation: Acolad generated adjusted EBITDA of £13m in 2025 and is expected to generate adj EBITDA of c.£11m in the year to 30 Sept 27 (RWS’s next financial year). These are obviously declining earnings, but I think a valuation of 2x EBITDA reflects this quite fairly.
Funding: Acolad will be acquired debt free. The consideration will be funded from RWS’s existing debt facilities, which were refinanced in October 2025. RWS’s net debt was £32.5m at the end of March, which looks manageable to me.
Rationale:
Acolad (a French company) has particular strength in Western Europe. Among others, Acolad works with c.50% of CAC 40 companies. Logos on the Acolad home page suggest it works with many global (US) businesses, some of which I believe RWS also works with. RWS says: “the transaction supports RWS's shift towards larger, multi-year client relationships.”
Provides “a material value creation opportunity” to allow RWS to increase the returns on its heavy IT investment by “applying its proven technology playbook to a new, quality European client base”.
Acolad derives around half its revenue from regulated industries. This is a sector that’s also a core part of the RWS business. We’re told that Acolad has “a significant presence in regulated and public institution end markets”, including medical devices. This is said to complement RWS’s presence in pharmaceuticals.
Impact on forecasts:
I don’t have access to any updated broker forecasts today, but the consensus forecasts provided on RWS’s website suggest pre-tax profit in FY27 of £73.5m.
Recent accounts show RWS converting adjusted EBITDA to adj PBT at a rate of c.50%, so I would speculate this could increase the FY27 PBT forecast to around £79m – an increase of 7% to 8%.
Applying this to adjusted earnings suggests a FY27E estimate of 15-5p - 16.0p per share. That would be equivalent to a FY27E P/E of around 7x.
I don’t think that’s expensive if the company can convert these earnings to free cash flow.
Roland’s view
This acquisition is the polar opposite of the Obviously deal announced by RWS in May, when RWS paid a lot of money for a loss-making startup.
Some quick AI research suggests that Acolad is ranked #9 globally in a sector where RWS is ranked #3. Within Western Europe, Acolad claims to be the leading language service provider.
In any case, it’s clear that RWS should know Acolad and its end markets very well, a point RWS CEO Ben Faes makes in his comments today:
Acolad is a strong fit for our existing value creation model. We are already applying AI at scale to expert-led services across our own operations. The combination also gives us greater scale to invest in new products for our clients.
We already know Acolad well and its established presence and reputation in regulated markets, including medical devices, complements our life sciences franchise and broadens our exposure to attractive, resilient sectors.
This looks like a very sensible acquisition to me:
Integrating Acolad should increase RWS’s market share and provide economies of scale.
The low valuation should mean a quick payback time.
Greater scale should help to to improve the return on RWS’s significant investment in AI-powered services.
The obvious caveat here is that Acolad’s financial performance has clearly been declining – that’s why the valuation is so low.
Acolad is privately held and I don’t know anything about the backdrop to its recent performance. However, I think it’s fair to suggest pressures such as cyclical forces, margin compression on translation (from AI services) and the impact of the EU Unitary Patent have probably all had an adverse impact on Acolad – potentially even more so than on RWS.
My hypothesis for investing in RWS is that I believe there’s an opportunity for a small number of market leaders to provide AI-human hybrid localisation services to enterprise and specialist markets.
While cheap AI-only services do a very good job in many areas, my thesis is that the need for deep expertise, accountability and enterprise scale in some markets mean there’s an opportunity for RWS to maintain its position as a top three global provider.
At the same time, I recognise that even if I’m right, this may not be an economically attractive investment.
Time will tell. I see today’s news as a net positive and continue to hold. A high StockRank and Super Stock styling highlight the potential value on offer here – RWS trades on less than 7x forecast earnings with a 7%+ dividend yield.
I’m going to leave Mark’s previous AMBER/GREEN view unchanged today.
Clarkson (LON:CKN)
Up 9% at 5,150p (£1.6bn) - Interim Results - Roland - AMBER/GREEN =
(At the time of writing, Roland has a long position in CKN.)
Defence and energy are not the only sectors to have benefited from this year’s escalation in geopolitical uncertainty and conflict.
FTSE 250 member Clarkson – possibly the world’s largest shipbroker – has also benefited, thanks to its ability to link shipowners with cargos and support clients in complex and fast-changing conditions.
Despite the expected tailwind from global events, these results appear to be better than the market expected. Today’s numbers have prompted a 6% upgrade to full-year earnings forecasts from broker Panmure Liberum.
Clarkson’s share price has risen by 40% over the last year, topping £50 for the first time today:
Before looking at the results, I think it’s worth highlighting the impact of the ceasefire in the Middle East earlier this year and then its gradual reversal. Markets immediately started to price in significantly lower growth prospects for Clarkson in the event of a return to more normal trade flows.
Half-year summary
Today’s half-year numbers are so strong that Clarkson warns today its usual second-half weighting is not expected this year.
Revenue up 39% to £413.5m
Pre-tax profit up 48% to £55.6m
Underlying EPS up 50% to 147.6p
Interim dividend up 6.1% to 35p per share – the 24th consecutive year of growth
Adjusted net cash: £154.6m (Dec 25: £232m, June 25: £206.2m)
Segmental performance: the group saw growth across all of its operating segments in H1, but the broking division was unsurprisingly the standout performer:
Source: Clarkson H1 2026 presentation
A couple of points I think are worth noting:
Broking:
The conflict in the Middle East created significant disruption across global shipping markets, reshaping trade flows, restricting vessel availability and increasing tonne-miles as cargoes were sourced from alternative regions. This supported elevated freight rates, in particular across energy markets, and increased demand for both chartering and risk management solutions.
Clarkson says that asset markets also remained robust during the period, with constrained supply supporting “healthy levels of both sale and purchase and newbuilding activity”.
The company’s results presentations always contain fascinating insights and data into market conditions in the shipping sector – worth a look if you’re interested.
For this review, I’ll just highlight one item which I think helps to put the current situation in context. The slide below shows the company’s blended measure of shipping rates. This is currently at 18-year highs only seen previously in 2008, and 2022 (Ukraine War). There’s clearly some scope for a reversal if conditions do normalise:
Source: Clarkson H1 2026 presentation
Acquisitions: Clarkson’s broking division was also the main focus of the group’s acquisition efforts during the period, which saw the addition of US commodity broker Link Group and Latin American broker Serpac International.
Clarkson also acquired Zuma Labs, a technology business providing data for the commodity and forward freight agreement markets.
In total, cash outflows on acquisitions totalled £67m in H1. This accounted for the majority of the decline in adjusted net cash.
Financial: strong demand for the group’s investment banking services saw profits from this segment double during the period. Clarkson’s specialist banking team helps shippingowners raise new debt and equity and advise on M&A.
Research: Clarkson’s long heritage and market-leading scale mean it’s able to offer valuable data and market intelligence products to a growing subscriber base. These are high margin and very sticky, with 90%+ recurring revenue and a 41.7% margin.
Outlook
The strength of the first half result has put the Group into a strong position for the year, and the Board now expects the full year outcome to be materially ahead of market expectations. Given the exceptional strength seen in the first half, the usual second-half weighting is unlikely this year.
Thanks to broker Panmure Liberum on Research Tree, we have access to updated forecasts today. PanLib has opted to upgrade 2026 forecasts while leaving outer years unchanged:
FY26E adj EPS: 279.1p (+6% vs 262.4p previously)
FY27E adj EPS: 306.4p
FY28E adj EPS: 322.6p
With the stock at 5,151p as I type, these forecasts put Clarkson on a FY26E P/E of 18.5, falling to 16x in FY28. That’s not obviously cheap, but doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.
Roland’s view
Clarkson is steadily becoming a larger business. The landscape in which it operates could also remain more complex and volatile than in the past for a while longer yet.
On the other hand, the outlook beyond 2026 remains fairly uncertain. History suggests there could be some cyclical weakness at some point, hitting rates and profits. By way of a recent example, operating profits last peaked at £100m in 2022, following which they fell by c.25% to £74m in 2025.
The broker trend chart shows how earnings expectations can quickly shift, often with limited visibility:
Profits are expected to set a new record this year, but Clarkson’s High Flyer styling and declining StockRank highlight the diminishing near-term value on offer:
This business is one of my largest personal holdings and I remain a long-term fan, with no plans to sell. I am unlikely to top up right now, though. The long-term share price chart shows plenty of peaks and troughs. It’s these latter times when I would aim to buy more:
Another point worth mentioning is that the longstanding leadership team of CEO Andi Case and CFO Jeff Woyda is changing this year, with Woyda’s retirement. He’s being replaced by Niamh Staunton, who was previously Senior Vice President, Finance and Risk for Supply, Trading & Shipping at BP. She seems a strong hire, but Case and Woyda have worked together at Clarkson for over 20 years.
I also wonder at what point Case – who has an uncapped profit share bonus and has been CEO since 2008 – may decide to retire. He’s seen as the company’s top broker and is both an important rainmaker and the architect of the group’s long-term growth. I’m not sure how easy he’d be to replace.
When I last looked at Clarkson in March I was AMBER/GREEN. The stock’s valuation is substantially unchanged today and the near-term outlook seems stronger, if anything, given today’s upgrade.
I’m reluctant to turn neutral on a stock that’s just upgraded earnings and is not unreasonably valued, so I’m going to keep my AMBER/GREEN view today. The caveat to this is that I’d probably move to AMBER on an in-line update.
FDM (Holdings) (LON:FDM)
Down 6% at 116p (£127m) - Half-year financial report - Roland - AMBER ↑
I’m a little surprised to see FDM falling today. When I looked at today’s RNS at 7am, my initial impression was relatively positive.
For some context, this IT staffing specialist – which trains and places consultants with customers – has suffered badly in recent years. The number of consultants placed with clients has fallen from 4,905 at the end of 2022 to just 2,003 at the end of 2025.
FDM shares are down by 90% on a five-year view:
However, today’s half-year results suggest a possible turning point may have been reached:
While Consultants assigned to clients remain at suppressed levels, we have delivered the first six-monthly increase in this metric since the market downturn in 2023, together with an increase in coaching completions of 50% against the second half of last year.
Half-year summary
The counter-argument to any suggestion of a turnaround is that today’s half-year financials are fairly dire:
Revenue down 195% to £78.6m
Adjusted pre-tax profit down 39% to £5.5m
Reported pre-tax profit down 49% to £4.1m
Adjusted earnings per share down 40% to 3.8p
Net cash excluding lease liabilities down 10% to £31.1m
Today’s figures suggest an adjusted operating margin of 6.5%, or 5.3% on a statutory basis.
These numbers also demonstrate the reverse operating leverage at work here. In short, sales are falling faster than fixed costs. That means profits are also falling (much) faster than revenue.
Fortunately, underlying cash generation remains good. The reduction in net cash in H1 mainly reflected a £2.6m net increase in receivables, which I assume reflects increased billing to clients.
FDM’s £31m net cash balance covers nearly a quarter of its £127m market cap and should provide significant headroom to fund further working capital outflows, if needed.
This business has been significantly more profitable in the past and appears to remain viable even at current depressed levels of demand. In the event of a meaningful recovery in demand, I’d expect strong operating leverage – profits could bounce quickly.
As a result, I think the only thing that really matters here is to try and gauge whether demand really has bottomed out and is starting to recover. Reading today’s commentary from the company, my feeling is that the tone is slightly more optimistic than I’ve seen for a while. To me, it’s potentially significant that FDM is willing to allocate cash to ramp up training numbers:
Consultants assigned to clients at week 26 were 2,042, up 2% from the end of 2025 (2,003). The increase was in North America, the UK and EMEA weakening further.
Training completions +50%: the number of coaching completions rose to 609 (H1 25: 424, H2 25: 404) “in response to increased demand from clients”.
27 new clients globally (2025: 21), 16 of which were outside financial services.
Outlook
Today’s update is in line (my emphasis):
The modest pickup in trading activity which we began to see towards the end of 2025 continued through the first half of 2026, and the Group's performance was in line with the Board's expectations.
However, the outlook is still clouded by considerable macro uncertainty:
Our markets remain uncertain, with macroeconomic and political instability continuing to impact our customers' investment decisions; it remains too early to judge whether this improvement will continue. However, the actions the Board has taken over recent periods position the Group to deliver profitable growth when market conditions allow.
House broker Shore Capital has tweaked its forecasts to reflect the regional trends highlighted in today’s figure. Slightly to my surprise, this has resulted in a modest cut to full-year forecasts:
FY26E adj EPS: 9.7p (-2% vs 9.9p previously)
However, Shore is keen to highlight the potential for a recovery in earnings if trading continues to improve.
The broker also notes that it expects the dividend to remain at 10p (100% of earnings), in line with normal practice. This implies a possible yield of 8.6%.
Roland’s view
FDM shares trade on around 12x forecast earnings, but the group’s profits are at a 10-year low. A sustained recovery could drive a rapid increase in profits and share price re-rating, in my view.
The StockRanks view this business as a Contrarian play and highlight the potential quality and value on offer here. There are also early signs of improving momentum::
Consensus forecasts for earnings have held steady recently. We’ll have to see if this remains true after today – while Shore Capital’s FY26 EPS forecast has come down slightly, at 9.7p it’s still well above the recent consensus of 9.2p per share:
I downgraded our view to AMBER/RED one year ago following a big profit warning.
However, I’m inclined to think that view may now be too harsh. The balance sheet is still strong and there are some very tentative signs of a recovery in activity levels.
I am going to speculate that the worst has now passed and move my view back to neutral today. I think FDM might be worth further research as a possible recovery play.
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