Why the market might have got the Savills share price wrong
Good shares at cheap prices are what the very best investors look for. At this time of economic turmoil, could Savills (LON:SVS) be one of them?
When it comes to the proven drivers of stock market profits, a blend of "good" and "cheap" is often seen as highly desirable.
Research shows that poor quality, expensive shares tend to underperform, while high quality, cheap shares can deliver much more reliable profits on average over time. It's not guaranteed - and no stock is immune from a sudden setback - but focusing on quality and value is what some of the world's best investors do.
Savills's share price has moved by -21.4% over the past three months and it’s currently trading at 1,095p. The encouraging news is that it has at least some of the traits that are often associated with two influential drivers of investment returns: high quality and a relatively cheap valuation.
Here's an idea of where you can see that:
Good quality stocks are loved by the market because they're more likely to be solid, dependable businesses. Profitability is important, but so is the firm's financial strength. A track record of improving finances is essential.
One of the quality metrics for Savills is that it passes 8 of the 9 financial tests in the Piotroski F-Score. The F-Score is a world-class accounting-based checklist for finding stocks with an improving financial health trend. A good F-Score suggests that the company has strong signs of quality.
While quality is important, no-one wants to overpay for a stock, so an appealing valuation is vital too. With a weaker economy, earnings forecasts are unclear right across the market. But there are some valuation measures that can help, and one of them is the Earnings Yield.
Earnings Yield compares a company's profit with its market valuation (worked out by dividing its operating profit by its enterprise value). It gives you a total value of the stock (including its cash and debt), which makes it easier to compare different stocks. As a percentage, the higher the Earnings Yield, the better value the share.
A rule of thumb for a reasonable Earnings Yield might be 5%, and the Earnings Yield for Savills is currently 11.8%.
In summary, good quality and relatively cheap valuations are pointers to those stocks that are some of the most appealing to contrarian value investors. It's among these shares that genuine mis-pricing can be found. Once the market recognises that these quality firms are on sale, those prices often rebound.
What does this mean for potential investors?
Finding good quality stocks at cheap prices is a strategy used by some of the world's most successful investors. But be warned: these factors don't guarantee future returns and we've identified some areas of concern with Savills that you can find out about here.
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