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Given 100 years of history, what are the odds of a stock market rally in 2019?

I hope everyone has had a wonderful Christmas break.  I’m away in Australia visiting my in-laws and being topsy turvy for a while has offered me a chance to gain some perspective on these difficult markets.  As is usually the case, my confidence is best found through number crunching.  So this Boxing Day I’ve run the gamut on the last 50 to 100 years of stock market history to develop a statistical model of stock market returns.  If you read, scan and ponder this piece you’ll have a far more rational understanding of the range of possible outcomes for 2019…

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  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Shell (RDSA)

  • Twitter (TWTR)

  • Volkswagon AG (VOK)

  • McDonalds (MCD)

  • Vodafone (VOD)

  • Barratt Homes (BDEV)

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Tesco (TSCO)
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