LON:LSIC^J17 | /

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21st Jun '16 by HookH

14 comments 9021 reads

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HookH

Premium Member

14 comments

Carey Blunt

8th Jun '16

Great Report. :-)

I am also long here. I noticed it on the "Neglected Firms" screen a few weeks ago when that screen was, for a short while, the best performing screen YTD. I think its maybe the second best performing screen YTD now.

I already owned 3 of the most recent 10 additions to that screen and had 1 other shortlisted so I figured it must reflect my investing style reasonably well. So I set about taking a look at the other 6 in the most recent 10 of which LON:LSIC was one.

I can't say I have the analytical skills of HookH but it feels to me like a real under the radar gem of a stock. So far no-one has been able to talk me out of it in the other thread I raised but more opinions welcomed.

sirsege

9th Jun '16

Thanks very much for this very informative article. No doubt, there will be bumps along the way, but this looks like a long term growth company, even if it is not taken over w.r.t the strategic review.
For china alone, "With China's official transplant waiting list reported at over 30,000 patients, and a reported several hundred thousand end-stage renal and liver disease patient population, the Company believes that China has potential to become a larger transplant market than both the US and Europe combined within the next 5-10 years"

HookH

12th Jun '16

Cheers Carey, not so much an analysis more just a ccollection of all the relevant info I could find on it really. But yeah I agree with sirsege, if it is growing at this rate and there isn't any GAAP tricks then it looks like it could be frankly a nice long horizon stock. In terms of very long time scales I would say as a medical student that maybe when tissue growing becomes well developed it could edge out the company. But I'm talking very long term and frankly it's probably something the company would expand into. Also of course if a competitor brings out an improved product in the medium term. But I'm not too worried about that. It seems to be a very well run company. Looking forward to the announcement.

dustyie

12th Jun '16

Yes I came across this company while screening for under value growth compnies , but I drop it from my watchlist because it is a american company.
Foreigin companies listed on the london market have a poor record . they usual list here to avoid closer scutiny on accounts ,
this is the reason for it low valuation , so be very cautious ,

Carey Blunt

13th Jun '16

Hi Dustyie,
It's a good point and its one that I highlighted on a seperate thread here : http://www.stockopedia.com/content/lsic-someone-talk-me-out-of-it-133106/
Several people better qualified to comment than me examined the company on this point and said that they felt it was ok.
There are a few Foreign companies on London markets with genuine reasons - Somero Enterprises Inc (LON:SOM) is another one I can think of. I think Lifeline Scientific Inc (LON:LSIC) has much lower risk than other foreign companies on AIM - Chinese ones for example.

sirsege

27th Jun '16

Seems to be the only positive one in my portfolio in a sea of red

According to StockmarketWire today: "Lifeline Scientific says prospects remain solid for 2016, with trading-to date significantly ahead of the corresponding period last year".

The Boon Fund

27th Jun '16

Can't believe this share is still so lowly rated. Trying to find some broker forecasts, does anyone have any for the current FY?

If last year EPS was $0.60, and this year is significantly ahead, I'm assuming 30% minimum. So that is $0.78 EPS. At a GBPUSD exchange rate of even 1.35, that is a 57p EPS. On a SP of just under 300p, which gives a forward PE of only 5.3x!!!

Carey Blunt

28th Jun '16

Agree it's almost suspiciously good which was why I asked what the catch might be in a separate post - may be worth searching for it ( or I might bump it up myself).
probably going to top up.

deucetoace

10th Jul '16

This is my largest holding.

When you talk about EPS you need to decide whether or not to include the tax benefits. Personally I don't as it means I can look at the operating business.

I think from the recent announcements that we will be bought out relatively soon. I would prefer that this didn't happen as I would want to wait at least until the Liver Transporter is out and established by which time we will be seeing what sort of growth China is likely to provide. By 2019 this could look very good indeed.

The recent announcement said that the first half of the year is significantly ahead. When you look this is not a great surprise as the roughly broke even in the first half of last year. this doesn't neccesarily mean that the second half of they year will grow as fast purely due to the first half growth quickly.

Admin expenses look like they will barely grow going forward (bar the Liver Transporter roll-out in due course) so a very high percentage of increasing volumes from China (especially) and Brazil are likely to flow through to the bottom line IMO.

gus 1065

2nd Sep '16

RNS out this morning to the effect that the company is recommending a "merger", in effect a cash takeover at US$ equivalent of 312p (less than 1% above yesterday's closing price). Looks as though major shareholders are supportive so unless there is a counter offer looks like game over. Seems a knock down price and disappointing for recent entrants hoping for more upside from company's organic growth.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/lifeline-scientific--lsic-/rns/recommended-cash-acquisition/201609020701057713I/

Gus.

Rusty2

2nd Sep '16

Yes I'm a recent entrant, this is very disappointing, only hope is there is a counter offer.

surfs

2nd Sep '16

Seems like a stitch up to me. Highly profitable, fast growing company with a decent amount of cash in the bank going for virtually no premium to yesterdays closing price.

Also I want to know why there was no mention of the Asian market in todays trading update. Rolling out from 21 hospitals in China to 160+. Seems very odd to me and as if the BOD don't want shareholders to know there has been good growth there as the forecast.

Carey Blunt

2nd Sep '16

I agree, seems like the company was massively undervalued. I'll make a bit out of it but not as much as I was hoping for.
There won't be a counter offer as I think this is a done deal as a result of the "strategic review". Dissapointing, wish I had discovered the stocko unloved companies screen earlier and got in earlier.

sirsege

5th Sep '16

Quite disappointed with the management on how they could come out with this 0% premium offer and say they've achieved anything for shareholders with the projected growth from china, Brazil and even Europe, not to talk of the opportunities with the liver transporter. And its not even as if they're in debt or financial difficulties. They do not need to sell/merge at this level at all. Hope the merger doesn't go thru. Quite strange really.........

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HookH

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