| 2014 April Oil Stock Competition: Active April >20%....

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29th Mar '14 by flyingbull

7 comments 4822 reads

Another new tax year looming in the horizon. Which one stays and which one goes! Time for Action.....

For the April 2014 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the April competition is midnight on Monday 31 March 2014. Results will be posted on this thread asap after the April month end.

Good luck!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

7 comments

Fangorn

31st Mar '14

After the disastrous month that GKP has had surely the only way can be up(from a low of 89p!)

Scandalous scaremongering that the company will go bust without the $250 Bond issue being sort are panicking many it seems.

GKP for the up for me.

Down: TRP

ExTownie

31st Mar '14

Fangorn - there does appear to be a genuine cashflow problem at Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) which was highlighted in their recent bond prospectus:

"Whilst the Company believes that one or more of the above events are likely to occur, if none of these events occur, and the Company is unable to otherwise enhance its existing cash resources, then the Directors would expect the Company to require additional working capital by the end of May 2014. On that basis, the Company would be expected to have a shortfall of approximately U.S.$20 million by the end of May 2014...
http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/publication-of-prospectus/201403201540068295C/

The share price may well be reflecting the difficulty in getting the bond away, and the yield and terms demanded by new bond holders.

Consequently I will go for GKP down

No up for me this month.

ET

Fangorn

31st Mar '14

Plenty to be concerned about Ex Townie though apparently the Cash flow issues are at their worst Jan 2015,and from then on lessen (At that point debt would be $103m, arising from $20m debt May this year which then increasing at $10-15m per month thereafter)

Given the coincidental chain of events (the poor CPR which apparently hardly anyone agrees with, outside of Equipoise) the timing of "scaremongering articles from shareprophets only to discover that both EK and Miers are short, the generally poor PR, something certainly doesn't smell right - the M&G4 parachuted in were meant to sort corp governance issues yet we've seen little other than a continuation of the cloak & dagger press releases and a halving of the share price. A major shareholder parachuting in 4 NED's, several of whom were not fit for the purpose, the other who'd been clearly plotting a return to the GKP mean the boardroom is likely to be currently in the midst of a battle for control.

All in all a sorry state of affairs, but one that can be sorted by confirmation that payment has been received for the prior three months of exports, the BIR's get paid for finally, perhaps AB stake finally sold...or a farm in.

Shaikan is clearly too big for GKP to develop in the timespan required by the KRG.

But what was always clear was that the shenanigans surrounding this huge asset would put those at the time of the RJR Nabisco takeover to shame for the latter's lack of brazenness.

ExTownie

31st Mar '14

I agree Fangorn that if they get paid for their exports, that could solve the cash flow problem completely. Although they forecast Jan 2015 to be the low point for cash, they do have a tendency to be too optimistic, along with quite a few other resource stocks, to be fair.

It feels like they are over a barrel at the moment. The terms of the bond issue if they manage one will be significant.

I appreciate that a lot of rubbish has probably been written by shorters, but Kozel doesn't help himself by being just as extreme on the upside.

I would like to see the directors including Kozel buying shares here as a sign that this is overdone. As ee has said, it could possibly be a closed period, although if it is just the bond issue, an update should hopefully allow them to trade.

Whatever happens April won't be a dull month for Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP), so one of us may well win!

emptyend

31st Mar '14

....mmmm

Well I wasn't intending to participate this time - but what seems to me a completely unjustified pullback in several stocks suggests to me that there could be a 20% rise in some of the beaten-down stocks in the sector.

Balance sheet strength, profitability and cashflow look key. And SOCO International (LON:SIA) looks a better bet than most with the Chairman buying and some prospect of positive news in the next month or three. Will it come in April? Don't know - but there is a chance.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) looks in some jeopardy according to reports but I'll stop short of picking it.

Fangorn

31st Mar '14

Extownie,

Indeed , there's a litany of delays one can hardly miss - the production for example is at least 6 months behind schedule post last year's Investor's day.

The results of the Bond issue are eagerly awaited by all - will the coupon be 12-13%, or 15-16%. Surely given the asset base it wont be higher than that??? (Junk status of course but that's hardly a surprise - Eg Afren raised at 11-11.25% odd, junk rated. We aren't a BP or Shell)

Presumably the CB holders are selling to reinvest in teh new Bond issue - the result of which is the Equity market running scared in the belief that financial has hit the rocks?

I guess the BOD can;t buy as we're in a Close / Closed period - otherwise surely they would in an effort to instil some confidence. PI community, heavily invested in GKP, is panicking - of that there is no doubt. The extent to which the stops are getting hit is a matter for debate.It certainly can't be helping. Apparently 23 million odd shares traded today, some 2.5% of total equity issued.And we fall 13%!

Agree. April will be a "tumultuous one" that's for sure.

Am certainly intrigued as to what the M&G 4 have been doing since being parachuted in. Corp Governance hasnt changed at all imo. In fact it's probably deteriorated.

Someone with a sense of humour on Advfn.

"April Fool's Day tomorrow.. i'm dreading the thought of another semtex laden RNS."

flyingbull

5th May '14

Congrats to Chesty1 for winning the April >20% Up competition with HAWK flying high
at +42% in April. The new oil discovery is already on production!

Also congrats to Fangorn for winning the April >20% Down competition wtih TRP
dragged down -29.0% by the April Placing. Chesty1 almost did the rare Double (winning
both Up and Down competitions in the same month) with KEA coming in second, losing
the equivalent of just the length of a finger nail!

The >20% Up and >20% Down competition results are shown below:

">20% Up" Competition Results:

41.7% HAWK Chesty1 Advfn
32.6% SOU Mach100 Advfn
32.0% SMDR Luminoso Fool
26.4% FPM Wezzy Advfn
26.4% FPM Quialopes Fool
26.4% FPM Haoma Fool
26.4% FPM Fleecednflogged Fool
26.4% FPM Slickreturns Fool
26.4% FPM Sporazene Fool
11.9% PVR Steelwatch Advfn
11.1% BLVN Dalailama Advfn
11.1% BLVN GHH Fool
10.2% OEX Hotmark Advfn
9.3% GKP Gary1966 Fool
9.3% GKP Fangorn Stockopedia
9.1% SIA Fatprophet Fool
9.1% SIA Emptyend Stockopedia
6.2% XEL Peterbill Fool
4.5% AMER Bigwavedave Advfn
3.9% EME Thegreatgeraldo Fool
3.7% AEY Fireplace22 Advfn
2.2% COP Ewm55 Fool
0.0% PCI Sawney Fool
0.0% UJO flyingbull Fool
0.0% ZOL Stormingnorm Advfn
-3.6% MAGP Oblomof2 Advfn
-5.0% TRAP Glitter1 Fool
-6.8% MXP Hayfield Advfn
-13.6% AEX Impvesta Fool
-15.6% SER Alfredpal Advfn
-16.3% SQZ Repobear Fool
-17.8% FEP Stephenwilson Advfn
-29.0% TRP Casanare Fool
-34.9% SEY Abangus Fool

">20% Down" Competition Results:

-29.0% TRP Fangorn Stockopedia
-28.7% KEA Steelwatch Advfn
-28.7% KEA Chesty1 Advfn
-15.4% AST Luminoso Fool
-13.6% AEX Sawney Fool
-1.6% NOP Glitter1 Fool
4.7% VGAS flyingbull Fool
7.7% RRL Ewm55 Fool
7.7% RRL Slickreturns Fool
9.3% GKP Mach100 Advfn
9.3% GKP Bigwavedave Advfn
9.3% GKP Stormingnorm Advfn
9.3% GKP Fatprophet Fool
9.3% GKP Extownie Stockopedia
11.1% PTR Wezzy Advfn
11.1% BLVN Haoma Fool
11.1% BLVN Fleecednflogged Fool
26.7% LOGP Hayfield Advfn

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2014 April Oil Stock Competition: Active April >20%....

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About the Author

Flyingbull

7 comments

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