It’s been a while since I’ve written a blog. Last year I blogged about my latest paper portfolio which experimented with different rules, but was largely based on the NAPS. When the market tanked, I ended up tying myself in knots with stop losses and rule changes, and so decided I needed to sit out for 6 months to clear my head and get some distance.

Now, I’m in the market again, this time with real money (*gulp*). I’ve spent a while crafting a reasonably straight forward set of rules, based again on NAPS, but which gives me a little discretion about which of the top screened stocks I choose. I also allow myself to disregard value rank from time to time to enable me to pick up some more expensive sectors. I’m drip feeding capital in every month, and hope to continue to do so, on the basis that I think I’m unlikely to be able to call the top or bottom of the market, so this approach should average out over the long term.

I’ve also been following the political turmoil of the last three years (and the last year in particular) with interest and no small amount of trepidation. I suspect I’m not alone in believing that things are about to come to a head with Brexit – either No Deal or No Brexit. As the shiny new stockopedia site likes to remind me “no pilot ever takes off without his checklist”, I therefore thought it was worth going through my holdings and creating a Brexit checklist to work out my exposure in the event of a no deal, and which companies I might expect to struggle over either the short or long term.

Assumptions

I cannot predict what will happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but I’ve made the following assumptions about what will happen. These are based of my reading of the news (mostly BBC and The Guardian), a little research, and what I remember of economics.

  1. The value of the £ will fall relative to the € and $.
  2. The cost of imports will rise
  3. The cost of consumer goods will rise
  4. Inflation will rise
  5. Interest rates will fall*
  6. Unemployment will rise
  7. Employment costs will fall
  8. House prices will fall

*the BoE doesn’t give much away about plans, but reading between the lines of interviews with Mark Carney, this seems the most probable response

I don’t…

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