| Adventurous August For >20%......

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29th Jul '10 by flyingbull

15 comments 3294 reads

For the August 2010 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the August competition is midnight on Sunday 1 August 2010.

Good luck!!!!!!

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About the Author

Flyingbull

Premium Member

15 comments

doverbeach

30th Jul '10

Looking only at stocks in my portfolio:

Soco - TGD & Ngaga are drilling
Serica - Oates due to spud imminently after a few rig delays - 30 days to TD so may not get result by end August
Encore - Cladhan due to spud, rig delayed
Nautical - Kraken due to spud in August - unlikely to get result this month but the shares have some catch-up to do so 20% is possible anyway
Aminex - Shoats Creek Wilcox drilling
Faroe - run up on Anne Marie excitement and generally undervalued?

All exciting stuff (indeed I can't remember such a concentrated period of material drilling). For the sake of my portfolio, it has to be Soco this month, but for the highest percentage increase for the competition:

Aminex for 20% increase ?

Thanks fb!

db

Fangorn

30th Jul '10

Plumping for FPM myself with the Anne Marie excitement :)

robs12

30th Jul '10

Seems to be like shooting fish in a barrel this month - there's so much going on with so many companies.

Up: COV, (other choices RKH, MATD, SIA & AEX - shame accumulators are not allowed...)

emptyend

30th Jul '10

....mmmm.....

I'd like to start by ruling DNX out......but, then again, with the shares currently at only £17.16 and Anne Marie due to TD around the end of August, I'm not sure that I can quite do that!

Obviously I disqualify myself from db's pick, so there is only one standout choice for the up 20%: and that just has to be SOCO International (LON:SIA). With both their major wells scheduled to produce results in August, a serious gain would seem quite possible.

In addition, with "open season" looking likely to be declared re bids and deals (expecting KNOC to confirm their bid for Dana Petroleum Plc (LON:DNX) next week), I'll go out on a limb and suggest there won't be any fallers in the sector that lose more than 20% in August (crossing fingers especially that there won't be any I own!)

Soundbuy

30th Jul '10

Have to be Faroe Petroleum Plc (LON:FPM) too with Anne Marie.

REO100

30th Jul '10

For me a bit of a difficult call between EO. and AEX for the up.

As already mentioned Cladhan should have spudded and perhaps even results, but I also expect news on securing of rig for further activity in Catcher area as listed by PMO - both should give further momentum.

AEX perhaps more speculative but the volume traded in the last couple of weeks tends to get me thinking something may be happening in the background (also JPM reduced during this period). OM-10 news will be likely and as some are aware this is monitored closely by the weekly look at Sonlite site ! - should there be Wilcox success not only very positive for cashflow but surely this will bring interest to this asset - perhaps not so disappointing Ninox did not opt in.

At some point news HAS to come on pipeline upgrade for KN1 to move forward, KEY as discussed before want out and cannot wait any longer and Orca are making noises but still seem to be conveying the air that they are running the show. Whether it happens in August I am unsure but I remain hopeful there will be a resolution this year.

What the hell I feel lucky Aminex (LON:AEX) for the up, no down.

Reo

djpreston

31st Jul '10

Hi fb

Well, its got to be a choice of three for me this month - aex, sia or Cov.

I think however, I will plump for aex this month. I don't think many have understood the potential of the US changes of late. OM 10 and the wider assets deal plus the possibility of news re Songo Songo. I'm still mystified about the sudden rush of interest a week ago. Who suddenly decided to splurge and took up the stock from jpm?

Sia - all the drilling action = lots of potential for a 20%.

Cov - ironclad result.

Nope, aex for me.

Currently looking at a very interesting Aussie play at the moment with pots of cash underpinning the SP, a fully funded drilling campaign, decent production - no, its not gbp....

Whilst musing, I do have to wonder re what's happening at ppc. No news for a long time and levine's taking his time over identifying his transformational deal. Wonder what might fit them - a company with a solid US asset and big upside in a "hot" emerging province??? Price has been weak, due to lack of news or due to a funding issue.

Also expect CoP to start to recover following the recent malaise.

Also, what's wbn up to?

No down this month.

Cheers

D

repobear

31st Jul '10

FPM for me for the up bet.

There will be a lot of focus on Anne Marie and the market will shift even more heavily to the view that FPM could be put in play, or even dealt, at any moment.

If the DNX deal gets finalised, or even gets closer to be finalised, then some of that cash will start getting released and some will go towards FPM, and its relative illiquidity will push the price higher. I think some DNX holders will see FPM as a way of getting af slice of any Anne Marie action and because of other links see it as the son of Dana. How will the hedgies view it I ask myself.

Plus I still don't think the market has fully twigged the upside potential that the last two drilling results have brought to Faroe.

Robson1974 has been banging on about this since for weeks now. Some, probably too many, Dana holders, will be of that age where the names of the prospects alone create interest-)

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=9995638

I think he's right and enough Dana holders will look at the rest of the potential in the rest of the portfolio and buy some, sooner rather than later I reckon, to push the price higher.

News from Greenland will also most lkely create further interest. Again some decent posts/links on ADVFN for anyone not up to speed on that.

My other oily holdings, SIA and EO. are also looking good over the next few months and I'll be very happy for a bronze in this competition in two of he next four months as long as the other two are also on the podium;-)

repobear

AbAngus

31st Jul '10

Following my disastrous pick last month (FOGL) I shall try and be slightly more circumspect.

There have been many good contenders put forward here or on TMF, amongst which I would rank (in no particular order) AEX, Argos the Newcomer, COP, FPM, SIA, SQZ and others.

However, I don't think anyone has chosen PCI (I may well be wrong) - and so I will go with Petroceltic in the very optimistic expectation that (1) the Italians see sense about their offshore drilling ban and/or that (2) Oryx finds commercial HC in Tunisia and/or (3) that the value of PCI's Algerian assets 'outs' in some way.

AA

EDIT: PS: the pick is for the up 20%! (No down choice)

dbfromgb

1st Aug '10

My three biggest holdings in order of size are SIA, AEX, and EO.

SIA with two well results in August, is imho the more certain to deliver >20%. Having held this position for almost as long as I can remember this really is shaping up to be the month where everything is in alignment.

AEX with Nyuni gas agreement possible and the result of the Wilcox test imminent is I feel less certain, but creates much greater upside potential (ie higher risk and reward). A positive result from either should see a major rerating based both on confirmation of underlying asset value and the promise of early cash flow. Likonde 2 appears to be seen as a negative (potential for further dilution) rather than as an asset, and hence any announcement that benefits cash flow should change sentiment, putting this on a proper risked asset basis.

EO may well gain >20% on Cladhan sentiment but is more likely to perform in September imo

All three could be targets of M&A in August - in whole or in part.

So putting my mouth where my money is I have to go with

SIA > 20%

But I am hoping for at least two out of three, and having resisted for some months am taking again to checking for RNS's at 7am each morning ;-)

"There is a time and tide in the affairs of men which taken at the flood lead on to fortune". Based on Fridays valuations., forthcoming newsflow, and a more positive M&A environment, August is looking pretty good, and I am positioned accordingly.

Finally, a success in any one company is likely to trigger a surge of hot money from one stock to the next - SIA and AEX are interesting in this respect if the timing of announcements allows trading between the two.

Thanks FB for running the competition - lets hope we are all winners this month!

No down (partly lack of knowledge, and partly as a down is more likely to be triggered by newsflow which by its nature is generally difficult to predict).

Impvesta

1st Aug '10

Nautical (NPE) for the up please.

I'm thinking Soco news may not come through until September (hope I'm wrong though, as long as it is what we are all waiting for!!) so I will go for Nautical (NPE) which has fallen too far, for no apparent reason, other than a large shareholder offloading some shares on the back of a very strong rise.

No down, as usual.

RedTedsRoadshow

1st Aug '10

Too late to this to say anything original but nice that virtually all the most-picked stocks are my largest holdings...

Pick of the bunch got to be FPM or SIA this month - on balance I think SIA for August as they're more likely to finish a well than Faroe...but they may well be playing down it's significance....

UP: SIA
DOWN: None

alano20

2nd Aug '10

Hi fb,

Up 20% - SIA - hardly original.
Down - none

flyingbull

10th Aug '10

Here are the August entries, compiled by ryanandbethan. fb

>20%	Name	Source
AEX	UNLIKELY2	FOOL
AEX	KYU66	FOOL
AEX	EASTHEATH	FOOL
AEX	DOVERBEACH	STOCKOPEDIA
AEX	REO100	STOCKOPEDIA
AEX	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
AMER	ELARTU	FOOL
ARG	WSHAK	FOOL
AST	MARKC2010	FOOL
BLVN	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
CEO	TGG	FOOL
COV	CASANARE	FOOL
COV	CHRISWALDEN	FOOL
COV	THE VAMPIRE	FOOL
COV	GARY1966	FOOL
COV	ROBS12	STOCKOPEDIA
DGO	EWM55	FOOL
EME	RPANORFOLK	FOOL
EO.	JIMARILO	FOOL
EO.	OILSCHMOIL	FOOL
EO.	HAOMA	FOOL
EO.	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
EOG	MONTPARNASSE	FOOL
FPM	NIGELPM	FOOL
FPM	RYANANDBETHAN	FOOL
FPM	FANGORN	STOCKOPEDIA
FPM	SOUNDBUY	STOCKOPEDIA
FPM	REPOBEAR	STOCKOPEDIA
GED	DAVEYDAN	FOOL
GPK	FABIUS1	FOOL
MXP	FATPROPHET	FOOL
NOP	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
NPE	JPGH	FOOL
NPE	IMPVESTA	STOCKOPEDIA
PCI	ABANGUS	STOCKOPEDIA
PELE	PETERBILL	FOOL
PELE	LUMINOSO	FOOL
PMG	CRANBROOK2	FOOL
RKH	MARKYMAR	FOOL
RKH	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
RRL	SALTY39	FOOL
SIA	NORMAN115	FOOL
SIA	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
SIA	EE	STOCKOPEDIA
SIA	DBFROMGB	STOCKOPEDIA
SIA	REDTEDSROADSHOW	STOCKOPEDIA
SIA	ALAN020	STOCKOPEDIA
SQZ	FIRSTDM	FOOL
VGAS	DEVYMASTER	FOOL
XEL	RETARCH	FOOL


<20%	Name	Source
BP.	OILSCHMOIL	FOOL
BP.	LUMINOSO	FOOL
DES	FATPROPHET	FOOL
DNX	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
FRR	KYU66	FOOL
GKP	WSHAK	FOOL
GKP	EASTHEATH	FOOL
HOIL	CASANARE	FOOL
HOIL	NORMAN115	FOOL
HOIL	HAOMA	FOOL
MATD	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
MATD	DAVEYDAN	FOOL
MATD	TGG	FOOL
MATD	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
MTD	FABIUS1	FOOL
PELE	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
SEA	MARKC2010	FOOL
SEY	JPGH	FOOL
SEY	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
SEY	EWM55	FOOL
SMDR	DEVYMASTER	FOOL

flyingbull

1st Sep '10

For the >20% Up competition, adventurous August has paid off for EO.. The company continued to shine in August with a gravity defying and mouth watering 43.1% rise! Congratulations to Jimarilo, Oilschmoil, Haoma and flyingbull!!!

For the >20% Down competition, SEA just edged out HOIL with a -25.5%. Congratulations to Markc2010!!!

Thanks ryanandbethan for helping out with the compiling the entries.

>20% Up Competition Results:

2.1%	Average

43.1%	EO.	JIMARILO	FOOL
43.1%	EO.	OILSCHMOIL	FOOL
43.1%	EO.	HAOMA	FOOL
43.1%	EO.	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
26.9%	MXP	FATPROPHET	FOOL
14.4%	PMG	CRANBROOK2	FOOL
12.5%	NPE	JPGH	FOOL
12.5%	NPE	IMPVESTA	STOCKOPEDIA
8.0%	NOP	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
7.7%	SIA	NORMAN115	FOOL
7.7%	SIA	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
7.7%	SIA	EE	STOCKOPEDIA
7.7%	SIA	DBFROMGB	STOCKOPEDIA
7.7%	SIA	REDTEDSROADSHOW	STOCKOPEDIA
7.7%	SIA	ALAN020	STOCKOPEDIA
3.6%	RKH	MARKYMAR	FOOL
3.6%	RKH	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
3.3%	PCI	ABANGUS	STOCKOPEDIA
3.0%	AEX	UNLIKELY2	FOOL
3.0%	AEX	KYU66	FOOL
3.0%	AEX	EASTHEATH	FOOL
3.0%	AEX	DOVERBEACH	STOCKOPEDIA
3.0%	AEX	REO100	STOCKOPEDIA
3.0%	AEX	DJP	STOCKOPEDIA
1.3%	VGAS	DEVYMASTER	FOOL
0.5%	BLVN	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
-1.4%	EOG	MONTPARNASSE	FOOL
-1.4%	FPM	NIGELPM	FOOL
-1.4%	FPM	RYANANDBETHAN	FOOL
-1.4%	FPM	FANGORN	STOCKOPEDIA
-1.4%	FPM	SOUNDBUY	STOCKOPEDIA
-1.4%	FPM	REPOBEAR	STOCKOPEDIA
-2.6%	DGO	EWM55	FOOL
-3.3%	EME	RPANORFOLK	FOOL
-3.4%	XEL	RETARCH	FOOL
-8.0%	GPK	FABIUS1	FOOL
-8.1%	ARG	WSHAK	FOOL
-9.4%	GED	DAVEYDAN	FOOL
-9.6%	AST	MARKC2010	FOOL
-9.8%	PELE	PETERBILL	FOOL
-9.8%	PELE	LUMINOSO	FOOL
-12.0%	COV	CASANARE	FOOL
-12.0%	COV	CHRISWALDEN	FOOL
-12.0%	COV	THE VAMPIRE	FOOL
-12.0%	COV	GARY1966	FOOL
-12.0%	COV	ROBS12	STOCKOPEDIA
-13.0%	RRL	SALTY39	FOOL
-14.3%	AMER	ELARTU	FOOL
-16.9%	CEO	TGG	FOOL
-42.7%	SQZ	FIRSTDM	FOOL

>20% Down Competition Results:

-0.5%	Average

-25.8%	SEA	MARKC2010	FOOL
-23.6%	HOIL	CASANARE	FOOL
-23.6%	HOIL	NORMAN115	FOOL
-23.6%	HOIL	HAOMA	FOOL
-9.8%	PELE	JOHNNYLITE	FOOL
-9.7%	SMDR	DEVYMASTER	FOOL
-6.2%	BP.	OILSCHMOIL	FOOL
-6.2%	BP.	LUMINOSO	FOOL
-4.3%	DES	FATPROPHET	FOOL
-4.0%	SEY	JPGH	FOOL
-4.0%	SEY	MEDAUNTOUCHABLE	FOOL
-4.0%	SEY	EWM55	FOOL
4.6%	FRR	KYU66	FOOL
5.4%	DNX	PRIVATEPILES	FOOL
13.7%	MATD	CHRISTIAN12	FOOL
13.7%	MATD	DAVEYDAN	FOOL
13.7%	MATD	TGG	FOOL
13.7%	MATD	FLYINGBULL	FOOL
13.7%	MTD	FABIUS1	FOOL
27.6%	GKP	WSHAK	FOOL
27.6%	GKP	EASTHEATH	FOOL

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Adventurous August for >20%......

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Flyingbull

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