I found the anatomy of a profit warning article by Edward Croft very helpful. With discipline it should help significantly reduce losses on poorly performing stocks.

One area where I have occasionally made significant profits is takeover bids. It is sometimes possible to predict takeover targets either as an individual stock or a group of stocks that may be targeted (Catlin and Amlin were very profitable for me). It is also often possible to profit once a bid is in play (recent examples SAB Miller and Lavendon). Paul Scott recently pointed out his premature sale of Lavendon reduced his profit significantly. I considered buying and didn't so we both "lost out". It is of course a lot easier to enter the fray after a takeover bid is announced although profits are likely to be lower. Data on the likely progress and outcome of a bid would be helpful and might have helped prevent Paul and I kicking ourselves in respect of Lavendon.

I think it would be useful and extremely interesting to have an analysis of the "anatomy of a takeover bid". I recognise that this is a big task but it does have the potential to be a very useful resource.

Nick


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