Awesome April for >20%.....

Thursday, Mar 29 2012 by

I hope people are now used up their capital gain allowance for this tax year and ready to rock 'n' roll again in a few days...... ;-)

For the April 2012 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for

(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?

You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the April competition is midnight on April Fool's Day this Sunday.

Good luck!!!!!


Filed Under: Oil & Gas,


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17 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

emptyend 29th Mar '12 1 of 17

The last month hasn't gone according to my expectations as the E&P sector has fallen even further out of favour ......despite various companies reporting record results and with oil prices continuing to hover near recent highs (notwithstanding suggestions of Saudi production increases and rumours of coordinated plans for a Western SPR release).

Though there are a number of companies drilling important wells at present, I'll resist the temptation to guess whether their shares will move up or down. Instead I'll go for corporate news to trigger +20% for SOCO International (LON:SIA).

I may be a month or two early with that pick, but +20% from here really isn't too taxing given the recent shocking share price underperformance in the face of robust fundamentals....always assuming there is something newsworthy, of course.

I won't pick a down this time, even though it does look to me as if some of the favourites from the last couple of years have started to run out of puff and are ripe for a continuation of spring profit-taking (indeed I notice that at least four such companies have fallen by over 20% in the last 30 days).


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Impvesta 29th Mar '12 2 of 17

Aminex (AEX) for 20% gain please. The further drilling on Ntorya-1 must surely be heading towards completion now and I have my fingers crossed for some good news.

No down.

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sander4709 29th Mar '12 3 of 17

CEO to bounce back for me please.

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Fangorn 29th Mar '12 4 of 17

SER, Sefton for the 20% rise for me please.

Down, the PMG bubble must surely burst soon..

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drowsy 29th Mar '12 5 of 17

FOGL up based on positive indications from BOR drilling

AEX down (hoping for a good drilling result but AEX always disappoints!)

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Elias Jones 29th Mar '12 6 of 17


20% Gain - MAGP Magnolia Petroleum (awaiting results from 4 completed wells, 3 on a minimal below 1% NRI, but one on an increased NRI of 9.375%)

20% Loss – RMP Red Emperor Resources (all depends on the Puntland well result, the market expects a gusher, if it is then the 20% gain will be smashed imo, but I’m not so sure)

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WarrenMuppet 1st Apr '12 7 of 17

Up 20% - Xcite Energy.

Only last June, Stephen Kew (Exploration and Development Director of Xcite) purchased another 1 million shares @ £1.18 p/s, taking his holding to 6,212,619 Ordinary Shares. The CFO also purchased another 1 million shares at the same time, and followed this up in September with the purchase of another 801,666 shares @ £1.28, taking his holding to 7,000,000 Ordinary Shares.

Now, I'd think Mr. Kew, of all people, wouldn't buy £1.2m worth of stock just for a laugh. These purchases was made during turbulent market conditions(Greece, Libya etc. etc.) Funding wasn't in place then either, and only 28 million of 2P reserves were booked. Today there's 116 MMstb of 2P reserves booked and funding available. The Greece story has 'quietened down' also, so XEL must be a much better buy today, surely.

"Stephen has been a director of 3 Sigma Limited since 1999, a petroleum engineering consultancy company in the upstream oil and gas business. Stephen is a Petroleum Engineer and has over 34 years of development engineering and project management experience in the oil and gas industry, including 25 years with Conoco and previous experience in respect of the Bentley field, Block 9/3b. He is an associate of the Institution of Chemical Engineers, a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and President of the Scottish Oil Club."

A company with 2P booked reserves of 116 MMstb, currently valued $3.85 per barrel. This is also discounting the rest of the field (Bentley East etc.). Trap Oil recently paid $21 p/b for a stake in Antenna. Yes, they'll soon be producing assets, but there's still a huge disconnect. Bentley is also one large asset, or a 'Kingmaker' or whatever you want to call it.

The oil is there, it flows (upper-case already proven), and TRACS, independent auditors, have given it 2p ( proven and probable) with a 90 percent COS (chance of extraction) which is as good as it gets.

Also, a recent statement from Statoil reads...

“We consider both acreage that is open, which will be made available in the UK’s 27th concession round coming up in the North Sea, and acreage that other companies are sitting on and where we might be able to farm in. We have a process...”

Statoil are heavy oil specialists and owners of the neighboring heavy oil fields, so it would be rather surprising if they weren't interested.

You'd have to be looking at least $13+ per barrel, as production proper (phase 1B) is penciled in for 2013, less than 12 months away.

The EWT can only improve things further, with some interesting news flow to be expected in the coming weeks/months.


Down 20% - Africa Oil (AOI.V).

Great company, but having a market cap close to $1 billion, the stock is looking a bit overbought at present (It has risen 120% in the last four weeks).

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Isaac 1st Apr '12 8 of 17

I'll go for SIA and HOIL for the UP please in April.

And SQZ and CHAR for the DOWN in April.


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emptyend 1st Apr '12 9 of 17

In reply to Isaac, post #8

I won't offer a theory on why you might have offered two picks for the ups and two for the down..........  ;-)

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dbfromgb 1st Apr '12 10 of 17

Aex for the up

No down


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alano20 1st Apr '12 11 of 17

CEO for the >20% please
AEX for the <20%.

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flyingbull 2nd Apr '12 12 of 17

In reply to Isaac, post #8

Hi Isaac, I only gather one entry for the Up comp and one for the Down comp. If there are more than one mentioned for each comp and no specific choice is given, I simply pick the first one. Cheers, fb

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peterdm 7th Apr '12 13 of 17

My >20% is PMG. Much unloved on this board, but Tom Cross has unlocked the key to getting the share price up with not much to support it. They have been trailling a number of announcements, anything in the next month will send PMG up into the high 20's.
Sadly, my down is SOCO. Not just being contrarian, but they have lost their way recently and the results have not given any forward impetus. If something weighty was in the offing, we would have read it in the runes of the results, and there was nothing. In fact, Ed Storey went out of his way to poor cold water on immediate prospects and talked airily about things in the pipeline that he could not identify but would take SOCO forward. This will continue to drift down until something concrete, just don't see it over the next few months. Hope I'm wrong, as I'm massively overweightin SOCO

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flyingbull 8th Apr '12 14 of 17

In reply to peterdm, post #13

Hi peterdm, I'm afraid I'll have to exclude your entries (dated 7 April) since the deadline was midnight 1 April. Cheers, fb

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emptyend 8th Apr '12 15 of 17

In reply to peterdm, post #13

In fact, Ed Storey went out of his way to poor cold water on immediate prospects and talked airily about things in the pipeline

FWIW that isn't what I heard - though of course it is true that deals in the pipeline weren't identified.

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Isaac 17th Apr '12 16 of 17


Looks perky.....

Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) Afren's success will place all of the Kurdistan players back in play for investors, and none more so than HOIL. With cash flow from Russia supporting potentially explosive growth elsewhere in its portfolio, we believe that the company's exposure to Kurdistan will refocus attention on the stock.

Fox Davies



6 Month chart. Click to open a chart window


Intraday chart. Click to open a chart window
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flyingbull 3rd May '12 17 of 17

There is clear blue water between the first and second place in the >20% Up competition. FOGL won it handsomely with almost 31% up in April. Congratulations to Drowsy and Des12345 who has been waiting patiently for the results!!!

Poor FRR continues to disappoint, almost 44% down in April. Congratulations to Don77 for winning the >20% Down competition!!!! The RMP chasing pack was not really that far behind….

If you see any significant errors in the result, pls let me know by email or via message boards. I'll re-issue the results if necessary.

The two sets of competition results are as follows:

">20% Up" Competition Results for April 2012:

-4.8% Average

30.8% FOGL Des12345 Advfn
30.8% FOGL Drowsy Stockopedia
22.2% AOI(Canada) Casanare Fool
22.2% AOI(Canada) Itsoonlyme2 Advfn
19.7% BOR Hewhodares101 Fool
19.7% BOR Proselenes Fool
17.1% WZR(Canada) Contrarian2investor Advfn
17.1% WZR(Canada) Gray1107 Fool
17.1% WZR(Canada) Wistman Fool
14.4% NEW Eric76 Advfn
14.4% NEW Luminoso Fool
14.4% NEW Snowman88 Advfn
12.0% OPHR Oilschmoil Fool
10.8% VPP Thegreatgeraldo Fool
9.7% CEO Alano20 Stockopedia
9.7% CEO Sander4709 Stockopedia
7.0% SLE Montyhedge Advfn
5.8% HOIL Wshak Fool
5.7% EME Kamose Advfn
4.8% TRAP Bomfin Advfn
4.8% TRAP Chriswalden Fool
4.8% TRAP Dinocras Fool
4.8% TRAP Fund1 Advfn
4.8% TRAP Yossa123 Fool
1.3% SIA Crankbrook2 Fool
1.3% SIA Ee Stockopedia
1.3% SIA Ironpyrites Fool
1.3% SIA Isaac Stockopedia
1.3% SIA Need4speed200 Fool
1.3% SIA Peterbill Fool
0.6% TPL Cowls Advfn
0.0% MAGP Eliasjones Stockopedia
-3.0% VOG Logbaba Advfn
-3.0% AMER Chacobite Advfn
-3.3% WSX Duxy786 Advfn
-3.9% DGO Ewm55 Fool
-3.9% AEX Dbfromgb Stockopedia
-3.9% AEX Eastheath Fool
-3.9% AEX Hywel Fool
-3.9% AEX Impvesta Stockopedia
-3.9% AEX Ontarget Advfn
-4.9% PMO Robochubby Advfn
-5.0% NOP Fleecednflogged Fool
-5.2% HRN(Canada) Highcommissioner Advfn
-5.2% HRN(Canada) Marty51 Advfn
-5.7% GED Jetsman Fool
-8.2% CTP(Australia) Superhard Fool
-8.2% CTP(Australia) Thaiinvest Fool
-9.2% IAE Buycurious Advfn
-9.2% IAE CorporalCromarty Fool
-9.2% IAE Ingermarie Fool
-10.3% GKP Lr2 Advfn
-11.0% LOGP Oilyrag Advfn
-11.5% PTR Don77 Advfn
-11.8% XEL Johnnylite Fool
-11.8% XEL RichardGr Fool
-11.8% XEL Scruttocks Fool
-11.8% XEL Slickreturns Fool
-11.8% XEL Themarlboroman1 Fool
-11.8% XEL Warrenmuppet Stockopedia
-11.8% XEL Zetaboy Fool
-11.9% CHAR Cestnous Advfn
-11.9% SER Christian12 Fool
-11.9% SER Fangorn Stockopedia
-12.7% BLVN Rougepierre Advfn
-13.1% TOM Liqudmillionaire Advfn
-13.1% TOM Skiboy10 Advfn
-13.2% SOLO Chris5443 Advfn
-13.5% SQZ Reo100 Fool
-14.3% RIA(Australia) Robs5 Fool
-15.1% GBP Markc2010 Fool
-15.1% GBP Sawney Fool
-15.9% MXP Blue32 Advfn
-20.5% SOU Mostro Advfn
-22.0% EXI Glasowegianprof Fool
-24.4% RRL Holts Fool
-24.4% RRL Saggy101 Fool
-28.2% PPC Woggles Advfn
-28.3% GCM Highlander7 Advfn
-29.4% ZOL Stephanie_M Advfn
-33.3% SGI(Canada) GHH Fool
-34.4% RMP Maximilianfinetto Advfn
-37.9% BPC Ifthecapfits Advfn
-75.0% XTR Flyingbull Fool

">20% Down" Competition Results for April 2012:

-4.4% Average

-43.9% FRR Don77 Advfn
-34.4% RMP Christian12 Fool
-34.4% RMP Duxy786 Advfn
-34.4% RMP Eliasjones Stockopedia
-34.4% RMP Gray1107 Fool
-34.4% RMP Hywel Fool
-34.4% RMP Wistman Fool
-34.4% RMP Wshak Fool
-34.4% RMP Yossa123 Fool
-22.0% EXI Contrarian2investor Advfn
-20.5% SOU Des12345 Advfn
-20.5% SOU Ontarget Advfn
-15.1% GBP RichardGr Fool
-13.5% SQZ Isaac Stockopedia
-12.7% BLVN Cowls Advfn
-12.7% BLVN Ifthecapfits Advfn
-12.7% BLVN Itsoonlyme2 Advfn
-12.7% BLVN Mostro Advfn
-12.7% BLVN Stephanie_M Advfn
-11.9% SER Montyhedge Advfn
-10.3% GKP Blue32 Advfn
-10.3% GKP Eastheath Fool
-10.3% GKP Eric76 Advfn
-10.3% GKP Highlander7 Advfn
-10.3% GKP Liqudmillionaire Advfn
-10.3% GKP Proselenes Fool
-10.3% GKP Rougepierre Advfn
-6.6% RSOX Snowman88 Advfn
-5.3% Total Robochubby Advfn
-4.4% PMG Fangorn Stockopedia
-4.4% PMG Fleecednflogged Fool
-4.4% PMG Hewhodares101 Fool
-4.4% PMG Lr2 Advfn
-4.4% PMG Robs5 Fool
-4.4% PMG Saggy101 Fool
-4.4% PMG Slickreturns Fool
-3.9% AEX Alano20 Stockopedia
-3.9% AEX Casanare Fool
-3.9% AEX Dinocras Fool
-3.9% AEX Drowsy Stockopedia
-3.9% AEX Johnnylite Fool
-3.9% AEX Luminoso Fool
-3.9% AEX Markc2010 Fool
-3.9% AEX Sawney Fool
-3.9% AEX Superhard Fool
-3.9% AEX Thaiinvest Fool
-3.0% VOG Bomfin Advfn
3.4% RKH Chris5443 Advfn
3.4% RKH Holts Fool
3.4% RKH Oilyrag Advfn
5.8% HOIL Ewm55 Fool
5.8% HOIL Need4speed200 Fool
5.8% HOIL Scruttocks Fool
7.0% SLE Cestnous Advfn
7.4% HAWK Buycurious Advfn
7.4% HAWK Logbaba Advfn
11.8% NTOG Fund1 Advfn
11.8% NTOG Kamose Advfn
19.7% BOR CorporalCromarty Fool
19.7% BOR Glasowegianprof Fool
19.7% BOR Peterbill Fool
19.7% BOR Woggles Advfn
22.2% AOI(Canada) Marty51 Advfn
22.2% AOI(Canada) Maximilianfinetto Advfn
22.2% AOI(Canada) Themarlboroman1 Fool
22.2% AOI(Canada) Warrenmuppet Stockopedia
30.8% FOGL Flyingbull Fool
30.8% FOGL Ironpyrites Fool
39.2% VIY Chacobite Advfn


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