AZN & GSK. Ranking ? and OCDO now I come to think of it

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6th May '20 by Simon Rowan

6 comments 806 reads

I fail to understand how these three shares score relatively poorly to other stock. AZN in particular has moved from £70 to £88 in a month. I accept it looks pretty overbought probably for defensive reasons, but they have had a couple of very successful drug launches this year. I was thinking it was a better place to put money than a bank account, but may have got passed that point now. OCDO looks like it really will make £42 within the next 2 years. All I hear is how expensive and overpriced it is. That was at£10! Anyone know how these scores are arrived at. Is it some clever computer software calculations or some other method?

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About the Author

Simon Rowan

Premium Member

6 comments

timarr

6th May '20

Anyone know how these scores are arrived at. Is it some clever computer software calculations or some other method?

https://www.stockopedia.com/le...

Built on sound academic research from over half a century.

However, discontinuities like a pandemic completely unseat all models which rely on historical data - which is to say, all of them.

timarr

Simon Rowan

7th May '20

Thanks for your reply Timarr. I get the rankings and risks etc it is the actual number scores out of 100 that intrigue me. Years ago when I was a small boy I had an an uncle who must have been in his seventies I guess. For many years after serving in two world wars, his wife tragically having died on their honeymoon on a boat to New Zealand, he returned to the UK and took up a post as a racing journalist, the Augur, on the Sporting Life.

He was like some kind of gambling philanthropist. He used to come and stay with us every weekend and he and I would shut ourselves away in a room Saturday mornings to discuss the weekend hot tips and often head off to some racecourse or other where he seemed to know everyone.

From about the age of 8, one of the more serious tasks was to assist him in unravelling the two year old handicap. This was a mechanism to arrive at the horse most likely to win the Derby. There was an official handicap and our version (which might have been for the Racing Post or a London evening paper). We had to work out by allotting about 40 horses different weights to carry according to their form by working out where they had run, what place they had finished in, how many lengths they had lost or won by and most importantly the weight differences. I think we calculated three pounds to a length, or maybe it was the other way round. The top horses would be given 9 stone to carry all the way down to about 7 and a half stone for the outsiders. Our version was adjudged to be the most accurate by many. I ran a book on the Grand National at school for a couple of years. But that was the end of my short lived racing career.

When I was pondering how the scoring system for stocks here was arrived at, the memories came flooding back like it was only yesterday. Sorry if its not appropriate for this site, but it did make me chuckle

Simon Rowan

7th May '20

The bull /bear signal line seems to be the stock ranking score. How are the value momentum and quality scores arrived at I wonder? A mixture of financial health, results and growth forecasts and the value score goes down as the share becomes more expensive and higher as it gets cheaper. Thats not totally logical if you don't mind my saying. Obviously not that simplistic :)

Simon Rowan

7th May '20

AIR is highly speculative? Cash/ profitable / contracts formed in 1962. Highly speculative only if you think its an airline. I really don't understand. RTN, MKS are highly speculative. Closed. or mostly closed. More cash and support likely to be required.

Brilliant Leader

7th May '20

Being rated as highly speculative is a function of volatility, not overall risk (despite being referred as risk ratings). As to your other musings, it really is worth reading up on how the rankings are constructed, as per timarr’s link.

Simon Rowan

7th May '20

Many thanks for your comments crazy coops. I will persevere.

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AZN & GSK. Ranking ? and OCDO now I come to think of it

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About the Author

Simon Rowan

6 comments

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