Bluesky Ventura Process full year performance and top 10 selection for 2025 first Half

31st Dec '24 by Bluesky Ventura

14 comments 1222 reads

Full-year performance 2024

A good 2nd half performance helped to take Full-year performance to 48% growth. See table below.

Green implies a new position.

Red shows a position completely sold out.

That takes average performance over 5 years to 24.99% for the top 10 stocks. compared to -1.5% for the reset of the portfolio.

Future plans include, investing 60% of portfolio into top ten selection, and reduce portfolio from to 23 stocks to 15stocks. (use to be 30 stocks 5 years ago. )

Selection 2025 first half

I've attached links to previous lists below.

2023 year end

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

2023 half year

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

2022 year end

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

2022 half year

https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

Again the posts are more so for me and my investment process, I don't plan to provide explanations for the selection.

Good luck for 2025.

As always DYOR.

BSV

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The Phoenix

31st Dec '24

Fantastic results Bluesky over the longer term you must be compounding at a hell of a rate, CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) and Kenmare Resources (LON:KMR) both come up on my quality garp screen. Would be good to see you back posting a bit more often if time allows.

Bluesky Ventura

2nd Jan

It's been a long road to this point. I was very busy last year, so I had less time to post. All the best for 2025.

BnB

Thanks for posting this data. To clarify, 48% is the performance of the whole portfolio, or of the top 10 stocks? And if the latter, what was the portfolio performance? A big drop would demonstrate the power of a skilfully constructed concentrated portfolio (easier said than done!)

48% represents performance if an equally weighted position was created for the 10 shares highlighted. As I have a portfolio of 23 shares that are not equally weighted, the actual performance for the full portfolio is 26%.

I've come to the conclusion that most of the performance is from the top 10 rated shares. Hence, I want to allocate more funds to the top 10 and reduce the number of shares I hold from 23 to 15.

I hope this clarifies the information provided.

good luck for 2025.

Thank you BSV. That was as I expected but thanks for clarifying. And an excellent performance overall. To return the favour, and absolutely reinforce your point about the value (but also risk) of concentrating one’s portfolio, the top 10 holdings of the BnB fund averaged over 100%, but the fund overall, whose mandate is for wealth preservation and incremental growth, returned in the mid teens. Still very acceptable but a far cry from the top performers, almost all of which were large cap tech (Nvidia, TSMC, SAP etc).

davidjhill

Hi BnB

The problem of course is that you can't necessarily extrapolate a one year strong performance in what appears to be essentially large cap tech to long term concentration of a portfolio. If large cap tech have a poor year this year for example then the question would be are you nimble enough to replace your top 10 concentration and ensure you exit on a disciplined basis if going against you.

BSVs top 10 is much more diversified in nature and if this is long term then it may indeed appear better to stock pick on a more concentrated basis.

My average portfolio for 2024 is around 22% across 35 stocks and I am mulling the same portfolio concentration thoughts of do I slim down to focus on my better ideas. They say diversification correlation is something akin to 15 stocks and anything above that becomes somewhat of a blended tracker so I'm probably guilty of that. It is one of my 2025 focuses.

Absolutely David, and hence why the fund is far more diversified across healthcare and industrials as well as tech, which performed horribly in 2022 and will do so again if there is another inflation spike. Healthcare has been a big drag in 2024. But these annual reviews are arbitrary, are they not? Much better to think and act over longer horizons.

Yes, quite right BnB - investors often think too short term and an annual review is quite an arbitrary event (similar to a balance sheet at year end) - we should be reviewing our approach constantly of course with a long term view.

and HNY - I hope 2025 works well for you all (whilst we are on arbitrary annual events :D )

Cancun

I never quite fully buy into that argument David ...although I would prefix it with the fact that I'm definitely far less experienced / intelligent than you and the academics who do the correlation research...

Diversification may be possible with as few as 15 stocks, but if one shows great timing of entries and exits ( as a private investor , rather than institutional size ), why not hold / trade 35 ? I'm thinking of GM trader, Wolf, Tein etc. here for example... its so hard to be correct that your top 15 are better than the next 20, perhaps we should hold the larger number, but be more patient on entry points and more prepared to top slice for the bottom 20 ideas ? Whereas the top 15 stocks get a more concentrated buy and hold ? We could get more velocity of returns / opportunities to trade around the portfolio with 35 stocks, than patiently waiting for 15 to perform ?

I hear the argument that you can know 15 stocks much better than 35 ... it may just be my natural tinkering preference :)...

Many thanks indeed for all your research ideas last year David and HNY to all readers...

Thank you and the same to you

doctor dave

6th Jan

I've pared down over the last two years from 170 to 40 stocks and from all geographies to the uk. I've missed out on the persistent march of the US but I understand my holdings better and my performance is better (+18% in 2024). Aiming to concentrate further but dopamine hits getting in the way.

turbo

20th Jan

I appreciate you don't plan to provide explanations for your 2025 selection, but I'm still interested to learn something about your scientific method of stock picking....

30th Jan

Hi Turbo,

It is a very complex question, but here is a list of the main considerations in my selection.

What is my psychological disposition as an investor? In my case, I can be patient, suffer deep losses, and still believe that I am right, even when I'm wrong. So I tend to invest, for the long term, (3-5 years), with a slow rotation. I am comfortable holding my winner for the full value and losing 100% of a given share when I am wrong.
What shares should I investigate? I have several Screens which help identify companies with potential growth & quality, and value and quality characteristics. I will evaluate these shares. I then score and rank them. (65% of score)
Will the rest of the Market agree with me? For prices to go up there needs to be other market participates who also want to own the shares. So based on Stockopedia QVM ranking, I score each share (35% of the score)
How many shares do I need to investigate? I investigate 250 companies and select 10 from companies with the best GQ and/or VQ characteristics and score/ranking

It is brief but I hope it provides some insight into my method.

All the best

Bluesky, I found your reply very interesting, thanks for sharing. I'm trying to move away from the idea of willing to lose 100% (which I have suffered more than once). But I'm also learning to hold on for the longer term with some of the more solid holdings such as Goodwin (LON:GDWN) rather than panic selling. Good luck!

Bluesky Ventura Process full year performance and top 10 selection for 2025 first Half

Full-year performance 2024

Selection 2025 first half

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Bluesky Ventura

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