http://quoteddata.com/2017/05/central-asia-metals-site-visit/
Details production methods and prospects.
Thank you for posting this report.
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Nickwild
10 comments
nickwild
The recent proposed purchase/merger with Lynx seems to be a positive move.
The deal is said to be earnings enhancing. It changes CAMl's profile somewhat from being almost a pure copper play. Lead and zinc Now come into the equation. Also new jurisdictions (Macedonia). In my view this is likely to be positive as it reduces/mitigates the risks CAML previously had which were single play (Copper) and single jurisdiction (Kazakhstan).
I was impressed that they managed to raise a large sum of money very rapidly at price of £2.36 Ex dividend.
The decline this morning to below £2.30 seems to me to be ridiculous and I took the opportunity to double my holding.
Nick
dunny
Seems a bit of residual stock needs clearing up but then I suspect this will head to new highs close to 300p. A great earnings enhancing deal. I've just bought 5000 and will look to purchase more.
scapital
Likewise, I took the chance to add this morning at 230p. The management team here have done a great job to identify a new prospect and get the funds in place before a widely-expected bull market in base metals.
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Carcosa
You might want to read the submission report and associated presentation. Far too risky to hold for anything other than very short term.
Abingdoninvestor
Likewise, I've read a comprehensive analysis on Research Tree which suggests that CAML is a quality outfit with good management. We should all accept, however, the geographical/political risks involved. The stock qualifies for the SIF portfolio which highlighted the potential for the stock which prompted me to buy some about two months ago.
Carcosa
What makes you say that?
Major risks with:
New tailings' storage facility
River Diversion Tunnel
Construct certain settlement ponds
Criminal investigation re historic shareholder loans
Privatisation of land
Consequences of historical pollution
Nil provision for the contingent costs estimated at US$23 million
No conversations with Macedonian government as yet.
I take things like political risks as just part of normal business along with annual tax inspection risks etc
I have little concern that the mine itself is a really good addition and following the conference call the local management appears to be competent and improving.
In terms of share price, the deferred payments, plus the new zinc mill to be procured and debt to be paid down; without even considering cost arising from the above risk elements does tend to suggest free cash flow will be under pressure over the 12-24 month timeframe.
Also certain shareholders are providing an overhang of sellers in six months time .
It should also be in your mind that this is a reverse takeover meaning that the original CAML business is a minority business now. It's also a business that has taken on debt for the first time. So any prior research on the company is somewhat moot.
Good to hear that they are aiming for a main market listing soon.
Overall I maintain that the risk profile is very very different and a conservative shareholder may wish to wait 12-18 month to get a feel for the risk profile.
JollyBiologist
Hi Carcosa,
Many thanks for taking the time to reply. Lots of food for thought. I must say I'm a bit cross - I thought it looked a fine investment as a pure copper producer with no debt, large dividend, high margins, rising copper price, looked good for the next 10 years! Now they throw this fly into the ointment, and it largely now comes down to how much trust to put in management. I will say that they've looked after their shareholders since listing, so I'm not in a great hurry to sell, but it's no longer as straightforward as it once seemed.
best wishes
JB
Logic
JB: The board collectively owns quite a significant part of the company (>20% voting rights if I recall correctly). I do not think that they would favour any deal that they were convinced would be disadvantageous for shareholders (out of self-interest, at least). However, people may make bad decisions despite good intentions, and I would have to see some more data incl financial, on the "new" mine.
